Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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ECCDA Discussions
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
328 PM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

ECC029-241730-
Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch
328 PM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

...Discussion from Monterey...

Fire weather concerns are low with recent rainfall from an
Atmospheric River that canvassed our region the past few days.
Increased chances for rainfall continue tomorrow into the  first
half of the upcoming work week. Portions of the Bay Area may see an
additional 0.5 inches to 2.0 inches through Wednesday, 0.5 to
1.5 inches for Central Coast, and 2.0 to 4.0 inches for the  Santa
Lucias. Expect drier conditions for the latter part of the  week.

Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified.
Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds.



...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard...

...PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A significant pattern change is underway today and will continue
through Wednesday, with a few impulses bringing threats of rain at
times to the region. Confidence is high in widespread rain over the
region, and that impacts will be minimal through at least Sunday
night. For the remainder of today, a weakening cold front will bring
areas of light rain to areas south of Point Conception.  The next
impulse is expected to bring more widespread light to moderate rain
to the region between Sunday night and Tuesday, with a chance of
lingering shower activity into Wednesday.  The most likely outcome
is for widespread light to moderate rain with impacts focused on the
roads. However, there is a 10-20 percent chance of more impactful
heavier rainfall for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties
Monday into Tuesday morning.

Rainfall amounts through Wednesday are expected to range between
1.50 to 4.00 inches in San Luis Obispo County, 1.00 to 2.50 in Santa
Barbara County, 0.50 to 1.50 inches in Ventura County, and 0.20 to
0.75 inches in LA county. Peak rainfall rates for San Luis Obispo
County are expected to be 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour, and 0.25 to
0.33 inches per hour for Santa Barbara County. While these rainfall
amounts and intensities are the most likely outcome with this event,
there is a 10-20 percent chance of totals and intensities up to
double the amounts listed above. The chance for rain over
Thanksgiving is lowering, with some model solutions showing the
potential for some offshore winds and lowering humidity to develop.


$$

ECC028-241730-
Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch
328 PM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

...PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A significant pattern change is underway today and will continue
through Wednesday, with a few impulses bringing threats of rain at
times to the region. Confidence is high in widespread rain over the
region, and that impacts will be minimal through at least Sunday
night. For the remainder of today, a weakening cold front will bring
areas of light rain to areas south of Point Conception.  The next
impulse is expected to bring more widespread light to moderate rain
to the region between Sunday night and Tuesday, with a chance of
lingering shower activity into Wednesday.  The most likely outcome
is for widespread light to moderate rain with impacts focused on the
roads. However, there is a 10-20 percent chance of more impactful
heavier rainfall for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties
Monday into Tuesday morning.

Rainfall amounts through Wednesday are expected to range between
1.50 to 4.00 inches in San Luis Obispo County, 1.00 to 2.50 in Santa
Barbara County, 0.50 to 1.50 inches in Ventura County, and 0.20 to
0.75 inches in LA county. Peak rainfall rates for San Luis Obispo
County are expected to be 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour, and 0.25 to
0.33 inches per hour for Santa Barbara County. While these rainfall
amounts and intensities are the most likely outcome with this event,
there is a 10-20 percent chance of totals and intensities up to
double the amounts listed above. The chance for rain over
Thanksgiving is lowering, with some model solutions showing the
potential for some offshore winds and lowering humidity to develop.


$$

ECC031-241730-
Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch
328 PM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

...PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A significant pattern change is underway today and will continue
through Wednesday, with a few impulses bringing threats of rain at
times to the region. Confidence is high in widespread rain over the
region, and that impacts will be minimal through at least Sunday
night. For the remainder of today, a weakening cold front will bring
areas of light rain to areas south of Point Conception.  The next
impulse is expected to bring more widespread light to moderate rain
to the region between Sunday night and Tuesday, with a chance of
lingering shower activity into Wednesday.  The most likely outcome
is for widespread light to moderate rain with impacts focused on the
roads. However, there is a 10-20 percent chance of more impactful
heavier rainfall for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties
Monday into Tuesday morning.

Rainfall amounts through Wednesday are expected to range between
1.50 to 4.00 inches in San Luis Obispo County, 1.00 to 2.50 in Santa
Barbara County, 0.50 to 1.50 inches in Ventura County, and 0.20 to
0.75 inches in LA county. Peak rainfall rates for San Luis Obispo
County are expected to be 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour, and 0.25 to
0.33 inches per hour for Santa Barbara County. While these rainfall
amounts and intensities are the most likely outcome with this event,
there is a 10-20 percent chance of totals and intensities up to
double the amounts listed above. The chance for rain over
Thanksgiving is lowering, with some model solutions showing the
potential for some offshore winds and lowering humidity to develop.


$$

ECC024-241730-
San Luis Obispo County-
Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch
328 PM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

...PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A significant pattern change is underway today and will continue
through Wednesday, with a few impulses bringing threats of rain at
times to the region. Confidence is high in widespread rain over the
region, and that impacts will be minimal through at least Sunday
night. For the remainder of today, a weakening cold front will bring
areas of light rain to areas south of Point Conception.  The next
impulse is expected to bring more widespread light to moderate rain
to the region between Sunday night and Tuesday, with a chance of
lingering shower activity into Wednesday.  The most likely outcome
is for widespread light to moderate rain with impacts focused on the
roads. However, there is a 10-20 percent chance of more impactful
heavier rainfall for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties
Monday into Tuesday morning.

Rainfall amounts through Wednesday are expected to range between
1.50 to 4.00 inches in San Luis Obispo County, 1.00 to 2.50 in Santa
Barbara County, 0.50 to 1.50 inches in Ventura County, and 0.20 to
0.75 inches in LA county. Peak rainfall rates for San Luis Obispo
County are expected to be 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour, and 0.25 to
0.33 inches per hour for Santa Barbara County. While these rainfall
amounts and intensities are the most likely outcome with this event,
there is a 10-20 percent chance of totals and intensities up to
double the amounts listed above. The chance for rain over
Thanksgiving is lowering, with some model solutions showing the
potential for some offshore winds and lowering humidity to develop.


$$

ECC032-241730-
Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch
328 PM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

...PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A significant pattern change is underway today and will continue
through Wednesday, with a few impulses bringing threats of rain at
times to the region. Confidence is high in widespread rain over the
region, and that impacts will be minimal through at least Sunday
night. For the remainder of today, a weakening cold front will bring
areas of light rain to areas south of Point Conception.  The next
impulse is expected to bring more widespread light to moderate rain
to the region between Sunday night and Tuesday, with a chance of
lingering shower activity into Wednesday.  The most likely outcome
is for widespread light to moderate rain with impacts focused on the
roads. However, there is a 10-20 percent chance of more impactful
heavier rainfall for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties
Monday into Tuesday morning.

Rainfall amounts through Wednesday are expected to range between
1.50 to 4.00 inches in San Luis Obispo County, 1.00 to 2.50 in Santa
Barbara County, 0.50 to 1.50 inches in Ventura County, and 0.20 to
0.75 inches in LA county. Peak rainfall rates for San Luis Obispo
County are expected to be 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour, and 0.25 to
0.33 inches per hour for Santa Barbara County. While these rainfall
amounts and intensities are the most likely outcome with this event,
there is a 10-20 percent chance of totals and intensities up to
double the amounts listed above. The chance for rain over
Thanksgiving is lowering, with some model solutions showing the
potential for some offshore winds and lowering humidity to develop.


$$

ECC030-241730-
Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch
328 PM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

...PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A significant pattern change is underway today and will continue
through Wednesday, with a few impulses bringing threats of rain at
times to the region. Confidence is high in widespread rain over the
region, and that impacts will be minimal through at least Sunday
night. For the remainder of today, a weakening cold front will bring
areas of light rain to areas south of Point Conception.  The next
impulse is expected to bring more widespread light to moderate rain
to the region between Sunday night and Tuesday, with a chance of
lingering shower activity into Wednesday.  The most likely outcome
is for widespread light to moderate rain with impacts focused on the
roads. However, there is a 10-20 percent chance of more impactful
heavier rainfall for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties
Monday into Tuesday morning.

Rainfall amounts through Wednesday are expected to range between
1.50 to 4.00 inches in San Luis Obispo County, 1.00 to 2.50 in Santa
Barbara County, 0.50 to 1.50 inches in Ventura County, and 0.20 to
0.75 inches in LA county. Peak rainfall rates for San Luis Obispo
County are expected to be 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour, and 0.25 to
0.33 inches per hour for Santa Barbara County. While these rainfall
amounts and intensities are the most likely outcome with this event,
there is a 10-20 percent chance of totals and intensities up to
double the amounts listed above. The chance for rain over
Thanksgiving is lowering, with some model solutions showing the
potential for some offshore winds and lowering humidity to develop.


$$