Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FNUS86 KLOX 191700
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ECCDA Discussions
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1000 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

ECC029-201100-
Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch
1000 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...Discussion from Monterey...

Cooler than normal temperatures continue today and tomorrow with a
slight chance of rain today over southern Monterey County. The
potential for some light rain along with good RH recovery and
retention the next couple of days will keep fire weather concerns
low.

Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified.
Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds.



...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard...

...MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER
SOME INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS TODAY, FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ISSUED...

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...

An unseasonable low pressure system, currently 50 miles west of
Morro Bay, will swing through southwest California into Friday. This
 will result in continued cool and moist conditions through Friday.
This  system is unstable and will carry chances for thunderstorms
over most areas with locally heavy rain. The focus today will be
over San Luis  Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties, with the
greatest risks over the interior areas where there is a moderate
risk of rain rates  exceeding 1 inch per hour. Rain this intense
would be capable of  producing significant debris flows over recent
burn areas, especially  for the Hurricane and Apache burn scars. The
Lake Fire is also of  concern, but the risk is lower. As the system
moves east tonight and  Friday, the shower and thunderstorm activity
should decrease but still  remain in a more localized nature. While
the risk is low for debris  flows over the Post and Bridge burn
scars on Friday, it is not zero and  will continue to be assessed.
Coastal and valley areas also have a  chance for rain, but the risk
for heavy rain is very low. Winds will be  light tonight, then
increase on Thursday and Friday with a significant  wind shift from
southeast to northwest as the low moves through.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC028-201100-
Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch
1000 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER
SOME INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS TODAY, FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ISSUED...

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...

An unseasonable low pressure system, currently 50 miles west of
Morro Bay, will swing through southwest California into Friday. This
 will result in continued cool and moist conditions through Friday.
This  system is unstable and will carry chances for thunderstorms
over most areas with locally heavy rain. The focus today will be
over San Luis  Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties, with the
greatest risks over the interior areas where there is a moderate
risk of rain rates  exceeding 1 inch per hour. Rain this intense
would be capable of  producing significant debris flows over recent
burn areas, especially  for the Hurricane and Apache burn scars. The
Lake Fire is also of  concern, but the risk is lower. As the system
moves east tonight and  Friday, the shower and thunderstorm activity
should decrease but still  remain in a more localized nature. While
the risk is low for debris  flows over the Post and Bridge burn
scars on Friday, it is not zero and  will continue to be assessed.
Coastal and valley areas also have a  chance for rain, but the risk
for heavy rain is very low. Winds will be  light tonight, then
increase on Thursday and Friday with a significant  wind shift from
southeast to northwest as the low moves through.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC031-201100-
Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch
1000 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER
SOME INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS TODAY, FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ISSUED...

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...

An unseasonable low pressure system, currently 50 miles west of
Morro Bay, will swing through southwest California into Friday. This
 will result in continued cool and moist conditions through Friday.
This  system is unstable and will carry chances for thunderstorms
over most areas with locally heavy rain. The focus today will be
over San Luis  Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties, with the
greatest risks over the interior areas where there is a moderate
risk of rain rates  exceeding 1 inch per hour. Rain this intense
would be capable of  producing significant debris flows over recent
burn areas, especially  for the Hurricane and Apache burn scars. The
Lake Fire is also of  concern, but the risk is lower. As the system
moves east tonight and  Friday, the shower and thunderstorm activity
should decrease but still  remain in a more localized nature. While
the risk is low for debris  flows over the Post and Bridge burn
scars on Friday, it is not zero and  will continue to be assessed.
Coastal and valley areas also have a  chance for rain, but the risk
for heavy rain is very low. Winds will be  light tonight, then
increase on Thursday and Friday with a significant  wind shift from
southeast to northwest as the low moves through.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC024-201100-
San Luis Obispo County-
Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch
1000 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER
SOME INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS TODAY, FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ISSUED...

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...

An unseasonable low pressure system, currently 50 miles west of
Morro Bay, will swing through southwest California into Friday. This
 will result in continued cool and moist conditions through Friday.
This  system is unstable and will carry chances for thunderstorms
over most areas with locally heavy rain. The focus today will be
over San Luis  Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties, with the
greatest risks over the interior areas where there is a moderate
risk of rain rates  exceeding 1 inch per hour. Rain this intense
would be capable of  producing significant debris flows over recent
burn areas, especially  for the Hurricane and Apache burn scars. The
Lake Fire is also of  concern, but the risk is lower. As the system
moves east tonight and  Friday, the shower and thunderstorm activity
should decrease but still  remain in a more localized nature. While
the risk is low for debris  flows over the Post and Bridge burn
scars on Friday, it is not zero and  will continue to be assessed.
Coastal and valley areas also have a  chance for rain, but the risk
for heavy rain is very low. Winds will be  light tonight, then
increase on Thursday and Friday with a significant  wind shift from
southeast to northwest as the low moves through.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC032-201100-
Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch
1000 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER
SOME INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS TODAY, FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ISSUED...

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...

An unseasonable low pressure system, currently 50 miles west of
Morro Bay, will swing through southwest California into Friday. This
 will result in continued cool and moist conditions through Friday.
This  system is unstable and will carry chances for thunderstorms
over most areas with locally heavy rain. The focus today will be
over San Luis  Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties, with the
greatest risks over the interior areas where there is a moderate
risk of rain rates  exceeding 1 inch per hour. Rain this intense
would be capable of  producing significant debris flows over recent
burn areas, especially  for the Hurricane and Apache burn scars. The
Lake Fire is also of  concern, but the risk is lower. As the system
moves east tonight and  Friday, the shower and thunderstorm activity
should decrease but still  remain in a more localized nature. While
the risk is low for debris  flows over the Post and Bridge burn
scars on Friday, it is not zero and  will continue to be assessed.
Coastal and valley areas also have a  chance for rain, but the risk
for heavy rain is very low. Winds will be  light tonight, then
increase on Thursday and Friday with a significant  wind shift from
southeast to northwest as the low moves through.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$

ECC030-201100-
Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch
1000 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER
SOME INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS TODAY, FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ISSUED...

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...

An unseasonable low pressure system, currently 50 miles west of
Morro Bay, will swing through southwest California into Friday. This
 will result in continued cool and moist conditions through Friday.
This  system is unstable and will carry chances for thunderstorms
over most areas with locally heavy rain. The focus today will be
over San Luis  Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties, with the
greatest risks over the interior areas where there is a moderate
risk of rain rates  exceeding 1 inch per hour. Rain this intense
would be capable of  producing significant debris flows over recent
burn areas, especially  for the Hurricane and Apache burn scars. The
Lake Fire is also of  concern, but the risk is lower. As the system
moves east tonight and  Friday, the shower and thunderstorm activity
should decrease but still  remain in a more localized nature. While
the risk is low for debris  flows over the Post and Bridge burn
scars on Friday, it is not zero and  will continue to be assessed.
Coastal and valley areas also have a  chance for rain, but the risk
for heavy rain is very low. Winds will be  light tonight, then
increase on Thursday and Friday with a significant  wind shift from
southeast to northwest as the low moves through.

High pressure will quickly build aloft over the weekend, with steady
and significant warming and drying into early next week.


$$