Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
925 FNUS86 KLOX 212204 FWLLOX ECCDA Discussions National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 304 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ECC029-221615- Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch 304 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...Discussion from Monterey... ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON WINDS... Hot and dry conditions across the district persist as high pressure continues over the region. Breezy onshore winds develop each afternoon as sea breezes push. Little to no relief is expected overnight with warm morning lows and poor humidity recoveries in the thermal belts. Monsoonal moisture from the south brings a very low, but non-zero, chance for elevated convection Friday and Saturday, especially in the Central Coast. A gradual cooling trend begins the early part of next week as the ridge breaks down. Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified. Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds. ...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY... High pressure over the four corners states expanding westward over the region is resulting in a long duration and dangerous heatwave through Sunday. Temperatures will continue to increase and peak today and Friday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts will likely spread to inland portions of the coastal plain, where temperatures between 90 and 100 degrees will be likely. During the peak of the heatwave, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast. Additionally, the aforementioned parameters will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and extreme fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings are in effect. The Red Flag Warning areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy Friday through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related extreme fire behavior. With any thunderstorm that forms, gusty and erratic winds as well as heavy downpours or flash flooding will be possible. While minimum humidities will be between 10 and 25 percent during the weekend for a majority of the areas away from the coast, higher elevation mountains (mainly above 6000 ft) may see humidities rise to 20 to 40 percent as the monsoonal moisture moves in. $$ ECC028-221615- Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch 304 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY... High pressure over the four corners states expanding westward over the region is resulting in a long duration and dangerous heatwave through Sunday. Temperatures will continue to increase and peak today and Friday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts will likely spread to inland portions of the coastal plain, where temperatures between 90 and 100 degrees will be likely. During the peak of the heatwave, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast. Additionally, the aforementioned parameters will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and extreme fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings are in effect. The Red Flag Warning areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy Friday through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related extreme fire behavior. With any thunderstorm that forms, gusty and erratic winds as well as heavy downpours or flash flooding will be possible. While minimum humidities will be between 10 and 25 percent during the weekend for a majority of the areas away from the coast, higher elevation mountains (mainly above 6000 ft) may see humidities rise to 20 to 40 percent as the monsoonal moisture moves in. $$ ECC031-221615- Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch 304 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY... High pressure over the four corners states expanding westward over the region is resulting in a long duration and dangerous heatwave through Sunday. Temperatures will continue to increase and peak today and Friday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts will likely spread to inland portions of the coastal plain, where temperatures between 90 and 100 degrees will be likely. During the peak of the heatwave, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast. Additionally, the aforementioned parameters will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and extreme fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings are in effect. The Red Flag Warning areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy Friday through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related extreme fire behavior. With any thunderstorm that forms, gusty and erratic winds as well as heavy downpours or flash flooding will be possible. While minimum humidities will be between 10 and 25 percent during the weekend for a majority of the areas away from the coast, higher elevation mountains (mainly above 6000 ft) may see humidities rise to 20 to 40 percent as the monsoonal moisture moves in. $$ ECC024-221615- San Luis Obispo County- Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch 304 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY... High pressure over the four corners states expanding westward over the region is resulting in a long duration and dangerous heatwave through Sunday. Temperatures will continue to increase and peak today and Friday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts will likely spread to inland portions of the coastal plain, where temperatures between 90 and 100 degrees will be likely. During the peak of the heatwave, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast. Additionally, the aforementioned parameters will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and extreme fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings are in effect. The Red Flag Warning areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy Friday through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related extreme fire behavior. With any thunderstorm that forms, gusty and erratic winds as well as heavy downpours or flash flooding will be possible. While minimum humidities will be between 10 and 25 percent during the weekend for a majority of the areas away from the coast, higher elevation mountains (mainly above 6000 ft) may see humidities rise to 20 to 40 percent as the monsoonal moisture moves in. $$ ECC032-221615- Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest- Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch 304 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY... High pressure over the four corners states expanding westward over the region is resulting in a long duration and dangerous heatwave through Sunday. Temperatures will continue to increase and peak today and Friday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts will likely spread to inland portions of the coastal plain, where temperatures between 90 and 100 degrees will be likely. During the peak of the heatwave, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast. Additionally, the aforementioned parameters will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and extreme fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings are in effect. The Red Flag Warning areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy Friday through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related extreme fire behavior. With any thunderstorm that forms, gusty and erratic winds as well as heavy downpours or flash flooding will be possible. While minimum humidities will be between 10 and 25 percent during the weekend for a majority of the areas away from the coast, higher elevation mountains (mainly above 6000 ft) may see humidities rise to 20 to 40 percent as the monsoonal moisture moves in. $$ ECC030-221615- Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest- Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch 304 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES... ...LONG DURATION HEATWAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY... High pressure over the four corners states expanding westward over the region is resulting in a long duration and dangerous heatwave through Sunday. Temperatures will continue to increase and peak today and Friday. With onshore flow expected to be weaker with this event, heat impacts will likely spread to inland portions of the coastal plain, where temperatures between 90 and 100 degrees will be likely. During the peak of the heatwave, temperatures could soar to between 98 and 110 degrees for the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with minimum humidities generally ranging between 8 and 20 percent, and mixing heights potentially rising to between 12,000 and 17,000 feet across the interior. While widespread strong winds are not anticipated with this upcoming heat wave, the combination of hot temperatures, low humidities (including poor overnight recoveries in the mountains and foothills), instability, locally breezy conditions, and critically dry fuels away from the coast will likely bring widespread elevated fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast. Additionally, the aforementioned parameters will bring the threat of large plume dominated fires (especially in the mountains and foothills), capable of rapid fire growth and extreme fire behavior, including the potential for pyrocumulus development. The highest risk areas will be the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as Santa Clarita Valley and Cuyama Valley, where Red Flag Warnings are in effect. The Red Flag Warning areas cover areas that have been climatologically notorious areas for large plume-dominated fires in similar weather patterns to what is coming later this week. Moreover, the western edge of a southwest-states monsoonal moisture influx will overlie Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, which will contribute to the development of atmospheric buoyancy Friday through Sunday without significantly moistening the airmass -- i.e., displaced away from the core of the moisture source. While lightning-induced fire ignitions are a distinctive possibility on the peripheries of rain cores, the increase in buoyancy will further aid in large vertical plume growth accompanied by potential pyrocumulus development and related extreme fire behavior. With any thunderstorm that forms, gusty and erratic winds as well as heavy downpours or flash flooding will be possible. While minimum humidities will be between 10 and 25 percent during the weekend for a majority of the areas away from the coast, higher elevation mountains (mainly above 6000 ft) may see humidities rise to 20 to 40 percent as the monsoonal moisture moves in. $$