310
FNUS86 KLOX 042214
FWLLOX

ECCDA Discussions
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
314 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

ECC029-051615-
Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch
314 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...Discussion from Monterey...

...Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions continue  this
afternoon and evening in the East Bay and Santa Cruz  mountains
driven by sustained winds up to 20 to 30 mph...

Clear skies prevail this afternoon with breezy onshore winds from
the west to southwest occuring. Gusts should be around 30 to 40 mph
for the higher terrain and interior gaps and passes, though a few
stronger gusts cannot be ruled out. In terms of the marine tonight,
it should be around 1000ft plus or minus a couple hundred, which
should keep the expansion of stratus limited. The marine layer
should be better established this weekend, leading to better RH
recovery for locations within it. Cool onshore flow prevails this
weekend.

Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified.
Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds.



...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard...

...EXTENDED HEAT WAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THREAT OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES NEXT
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (JULY 8-11) ALONG WITH SMALL RISK OF
MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS...

Minor warming and drying expected each day through Monday. Over the
interior areas, highs between 88 and 99 will be common, with minimum
 humidities between 8 and 20 percent through Saturday, falling to
5 to 15 percent Sunday into Monday. Southwest to northwest winds
15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will be common over the interior
valleys and mountains, with isolated gusts up to 40 mph in the
Antelope Valley foothills. Sundowner winds of similar strength will
form over southwest Santa Barbara County the next few nights. This
will result in a seasonably elevated risk for grass fires in the
windy locations. Over the coastal areas, the marine layer will
continue to moderate conditions.

A significant heat wave will impact the area next week Tuesday
through  at least Friday. While there remains a range of outcomes in
terms of  the magnitude of this heat wave, the peak continues to be
centered on  Wednesday Thursday (July 9-10), at which time high
temperatures between  98 and 108 are looking like the most likely
outcome for most lower  mountains, valleys (including coastal
valleys), and deserts. Deep mixing heights  will increase the risk
for large plume dominated fires, especially in the mountains.
Minimum humidities of 8 to 20 percent are expected in the valleys,
mountains, and deserts during the heat wave, with poor humidity
recoveries in the mountains. There is also a small chance (10%) of
monsoonal thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts, especially
towards the end of next week. Southwest to northwest winds of 15 to
25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will likely continue over the typically
wind prone areas.  All of this likely adds up to an elevated to
locally brief critical fire weather scenario. While the chance of
reaching classic Red Flag Warning criteria remains low, considering
recent fire behavior and the high risk for plume dominated fires, if
the hotter outcomes play out a Red Flag Warning might be
considered. Heat Advisories look certain, with chance for Heat
Warnings.


$$

ECC028-051615-
Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch
314 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...EXTENDED HEAT WAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THREAT OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES NEXT
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (JULY 8-11) ALONG WITH SMALL RISK OF
MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS...

Minor warming and drying expected each day through Monday. Over the
interior areas, highs between 88 and 99 will be common, with minimum
 humidities between 8 and 20 percent through Saturday, falling to
5 to 15 percent Sunday into Monday. Southwest to northwest winds
15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will be common over the interior
valleys and mountains, with isolated gusts up to 40 mph in the
Antelope Valley foothills. Sundowner winds of similar strength will
form over southwest Santa Barbara County the next few nights. This
will result in a seasonably elevated risk for grass fires in the
windy locations. Over the coastal areas, the marine layer will
continue to moderate conditions.

A significant heat wave will impact the area next week Tuesday
through  at least Friday. While there remains a range of outcomes in
terms of  the magnitude of this heat wave, the peak continues to be
centered on  Wednesday Thursday (July 9-10), at which time high
temperatures between  98 and 108 are looking like the most likely
outcome for most lower  mountains, valleys (including coastal
valleys), and deserts. Deep mixing heights  will increase the risk
for large plume dominated fires, especially in the mountains.
Minimum humidities of 8 to 20 percent are expected in the valleys,
mountains, and deserts during the heat wave, with poor humidity
recoveries in the mountains. There is also a small chance (10%) of
monsoonal thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts, especially
towards the end of next week. Southwest to northwest winds of 15 to
25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will likely continue over the typically
wind prone areas.  All of this likely adds up to an elevated to
locally brief critical fire weather scenario. While the chance of
reaching classic Red Flag Warning criteria remains low, considering
recent fire behavior and the high risk for plume dominated fires, if
the hotter outcomes play out a Red Flag Warning might be
considered. Heat Advisories look certain, with chance for Heat
Warnings.


$$

ECC031-051615-
Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch
314 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...EXTENDED HEAT WAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THREAT OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES NEXT
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (JULY 8-11) ALONG WITH SMALL RISK OF
MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS...

Minor warming and drying expected each day through Monday. Over the
interior areas, highs between 88 and 99 will be common, with minimum
 humidities between 8 and 20 percent through Saturday, falling to
5 to 15 percent Sunday into Monday. Southwest to northwest winds
15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will be common over the interior
valleys and mountains, with isolated gusts up to 40 mph in the
Antelope Valley foothills. Sundowner winds of similar strength will
form over southwest Santa Barbara County the next few nights. This
will result in a seasonably elevated risk for grass fires in the
windy locations. Over the coastal areas, the marine layer will
continue to moderate conditions.

A significant heat wave will impact the area next week Tuesday
through  at least Friday. While there remains a range of outcomes in
terms of  the magnitude of this heat wave, the peak continues to be
centered on  Wednesday Thursday (July 9-10), at which time high
temperatures between  98 and 108 are looking like the most likely
outcome for most lower  mountains, valleys (including coastal
valleys), and deserts. Deep mixing heights  will increase the risk
for large plume dominated fires, especially in the mountains.
Minimum humidities of 8 to 20 percent are expected in the valleys,
mountains, and deserts during the heat wave, with poor humidity
recoveries in the mountains. There is also a small chance (10%) of
monsoonal thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts, especially
towards the end of next week. Southwest to northwest winds of 15 to
25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will likely continue over the typically
wind prone areas.  All of this likely adds up to an elevated to
locally brief critical fire weather scenario. While the chance of
reaching classic Red Flag Warning criteria remains low, considering
recent fire behavior and the high risk for plume dominated fires, if
the hotter outcomes play out a Red Flag Warning might be
considered. Heat Advisories look certain, with chance for Heat
Warnings.


$$

ECC024-051615-
San Luis Obispo County-
Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch
314 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...EXTENDED HEAT WAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THREAT OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES NEXT
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (JULY 8-11) ALONG WITH SMALL RISK OF
MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS...

Minor warming and drying expected each day through Monday. Over the
interior areas, highs between 88 and 99 will be common, with minimum
 humidities between 8 and 20 percent through Saturday, falling to
5 to 15 percent Sunday into Monday. Southwest to northwest winds
15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will be common over the interior
valleys and mountains, with isolated gusts up to 40 mph in the
Antelope Valley foothills. Sundowner winds of similar strength will
form over southwest Santa Barbara County the next few nights. This
will result in a seasonably elevated risk for grass fires in the
windy locations. Over the coastal areas, the marine layer will
continue to moderate conditions.

A significant heat wave will impact the area next week Tuesday
through  at least Friday. While there remains a range of outcomes in
terms of  the magnitude of this heat wave, the peak continues to be
centered on  Wednesday Thursday (July 9-10), at which time high
temperatures between  98 and 108 are looking like the most likely
outcome for most lower  mountains, valleys (including coastal
valleys), and deserts. Deep mixing heights  will increase the risk
for large plume dominated fires, especially in the mountains.
Minimum humidities of 8 to 20 percent are expected in the valleys,
mountains, and deserts during the heat wave, with poor humidity
recoveries in the mountains. There is also a small chance (10%) of
monsoonal thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts, especially
towards the end of next week. Southwest to northwest winds of 15 to
25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will likely continue over the typically
wind prone areas.  All of this likely adds up to an elevated to
locally brief critical fire weather scenario. While the chance of
reaching classic Red Flag Warning criteria remains low, considering
recent fire behavior and the high risk for plume dominated fires, if
the hotter outcomes play out a Red Flag Warning might be
considered. Heat Advisories look certain, with chance for Heat
Warnings.


$$

ECC032-051615-
Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch
314 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...EXTENDED HEAT WAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THREAT OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES NEXT
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (JULY 8-11) ALONG WITH SMALL RISK OF
MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS...

Minor warming and drying expected each day through Monday. Over the
interior areas, highs between 88 and 99 will be common, with minimum
 humidities between 8 and 20 percent through Saturday, falling to
5 to 15 percent Sunday into Monday. Southwest to northwest winds
15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will be common over the interior
valleys and mountains, with isolated gusts up to 40 mph in the
Antelope Valley foothills. Sundowner winds of similar strength will
form over southwest Santa Barbara County the next few nights. This
will result in a seasonably elevated risk for grass fires in the
windy locations. Over the coastal areas, the marine layer will
continue to moderate conditions.

A significant heat wave will impact the area next week Tuesday
through  at least Friday. While there remains a range of outcomes in
terms of  the magnitude of this heat wave, the peak continues to be
centered on  Wednesday Thursday (July 9-10), at which time high
temperatures between  98 and 108 are looking like the most likely
outcome for most lower  mountains, valleys (including coastal
valleys), and deserts. Deep mixing heights  will increase the risk
for large plume dominated fires, especially in the mountains.
Minimum humidities of 8 to 20 percent are expected in the valleys,
mountains, and deserts during the heat wave, with poor humidity
recoveries in the mountains. There is also a small chance (10%) of
monsoonal thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts, especially
towards the end of next week. Southwest to northwest winds of 15 to
25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will likely continue over the typically
wind prone areas.  All of this likely adds up to an elevated to
locally brief critical fire weather scenario. While the chance of
reaching classic Red Flag Warning criteria remains low, considering
recent fire behavior and the high risk for plume dominated fires, if
the hotter outcomes play out a Red Flag Warning might be
considered. Heat Advisories look certain, with chance for Heat
Warnings.


$$

ECC030-051615-
Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch
314 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...EXTENDED HEAT WAVE WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THREAT OF LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRES NEXT
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (JULY 8-11) ALONG WITH SMALL RISK OF
MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS...

Minor warming and drying expected each day through Monday. Over the
interior areas, highs between 88 and 99 will be common, with minimum
 humidities between 8 and 20 percent through Saturday, falling to
5 to 15 percent Sunday into Monday. Southwest to northwest winds
15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will be common over the interior
valleys and mountains, with isolated gusts up to 40 mph in the
Antelope Valley foothills. Sundowner winds of similar strength will
form over southwest Santa Barbara County the next few nights. This
will result in a seasonably elevated risk for grass fires in the
windy locations. Over the coastal areas, the marine layer will
continue to moderate conditions.

A significant heat wave will impact the area next week Tuesday
through  at least Friday. While there remains a range of outcomes in
terms of  the magnitude of this heat wave, the peak continues to be
centered on  Wednesday Thursday (July 9-10), at which time high
temperatures between  98 and 108 are looking like the most likely
outcome for most lower  mountains, valleys (including coastal
valleys), and deserts. Deep mixing heights  will increase the risk
for large plume dominated fires, especially in the mountains.
Minimum humidities of 8 to 20 percent are expected in the valleys,
mountains, and deserts during the heat wave, with poor humidity
recoveries in the mountains. There is also a small chance (10%) of
monsoonal thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts, especially
towards the end of next week. Southwest to northwest winds of 15 to
25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will likely continue over the typically
wind prone areas.  All of this likely adds up to an elevated to
locally brief critical fire weather scenario. While the chance of
reaching classic Red Flag Warning criteria remains low, considering
recent fire behavior and the high risk for plume dominated fires, if
the hotter outcomes play out a Red Flag Warning might be
considered. Heat Advisories look certain, with chance for Heat
Warnings.


$$