643
FXUS66 KLOX 141747
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1047 AM PDT Wed May 14 2025

Updated Aviation Discussion

.SYNOPSIS...14/924 AM.

A gradual warm up is expected today and Thursday with lighter
onshore winds as high pressure builds over the area. A cooling
trend with more marine influence is expected Friday through the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...14/934 AM.

***UPDATE***

Temperatures across the region are trending warmer today as the
departing trough has triggered a reversal in the pressure
gradients this morning. Overall most areas today should end up 3-6
degrees warmer than yesterday with much lighter afternoon sea
breezes. That won`t quite get us back to normal temperatures but
within 5 degrees or so.

Expecting to see more in the way of morning stratus Thursday
morning but mainly confined to coastal LA County and the Central
Coast. A little more warming expected across the valleys and
inland areas Thursday afternoon but not much change at the coast.

***From Previous Discussion***

Weak troffing passing over the state combined with an increase in
onshore flow will bring the marine layer roaring back on Friday.
Most of the csts and vlys will wake up to low clouds. In addition
to the low clouds the trof will bring enough mid and high level
clouds to create partly to mostly cloudy skies during the day. All
of the clouds, lower hgts and stronger onshore flow will bring 3
to 5 degrees of cooling to most areas. Max temps will be in the
60s across the csts and only the lower to mid 70s in the vlys.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...14/315 AM.

A cool for mid May inside slider moves through the state on
Saturday. Moderate to strong onshore flow develops to both the
east and south. The trof and the onshore flow will rapidly deepen
the marine layer and low clouds will xtnd beyond the vlys and into
the mtns slopes and passes. The rapid lift may produce areas of
drizzle as well. Clearing will be limited and it will be a mostly
cloudy day for most areas. It will be a windy day wind advisory
level gusts likely across the coasts and mtns and esp the
Antelope Vly. The clouds and lowering hgts will bring 3 to 6
locally 8 degrees of cooling to the area and max temps will not
escape the 60s. These max temps are 6 to 12 degrees blo normal.

Still not the best mdl agreement for Sunday. The upper low will
move to the SE but there is a question about how fast with the EC
faster/more progressive than the slower more westward GFS. There
should be offshore trends and decent northerly flow aloft which
should clear a good chunk of the low clouds away. There will be
better clearing as well. Max temps should respond positively and
jump 3 to 6 degrees (maybe a few less if the GFS verifies)

Better agreement for the Mon/Tue fcst with weak ridging moving in
and decent offshore trends developing. Marine layer stratus should
be greatly reduced or even eliminated. Max temps should jump 3 to
6 degrees Mon and 4 to 8 degrees Tue. Most coastal areas will be
in the 70s on Tue with the vlys seeing readings in the 80s. These
max temps are 3 to 6 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1747Z.

Around 1649Z, there was no marine layer nor a clear inversion.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KPMD, and
KWJF. There is a chance for IFR to MVFR cigs at KOXR (20%) and
KCMA (10%) between 12Z and 18Z.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Arrival time of cigs may be
off by +/- 3 hours. There is a chance for KSMX (40%) and KSBP
(20%) to see LIFR conds overnight. There is a 30% chance for brief
IFR conds at KBUR/KVNY between 13Z and 16Z, but low confidence in
minimum flight cat if cigs arrive. There is a 20% chance for IFR
conds at KLAX/KSMO overnight.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival of cigs may be as early
as 08Z or as late as 13Z. There is a 20% chance for cigs 007-009
once cigs arrive. There is a 10% chance of an east wind component
reaching 8 kts between 12Z and 18Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance for cigs
between 005-012 between 13Z and 16Z, but low confidence in
minimum flight cat if cigs arrive.

&&

.MARINE...14/847 AM.

For the Outer Waters, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
level winds and seas will continue into the weekend, with brief
lulls possible in the early morning hours Thursday and Friday. For
the weekend, Gale Force winds are possible (30-40 percent chance)
beginning Saturday and lasting into the overnight hours of Sunday
into Monday. Seas will rapidly build during this period, with
heights peaking at 16 feet. Then, winds and seas will decrease,
but still remain near or above SCA levels through early next week.

For the Inner Waters along the Central Coast, SCA level winds are
likely (60-80% chance) during the afternoon through late night
hours today through Friday. Then, a combination of SCA winds and
seas will occur Saturday through late Sunday, with seas
approaching 14 feet Sunday. There is a 20-30 percent chance for
Gales during this time. For early next week, SCA level winds are
likely in the afternoon and evening hours (50-60 percent chance).
Seas are less likely to hit SCA thresholds (20-30 percent chance).

For the Inner Waters south of Point Concpetion, SCA level winds
along with choppy seas will fill much of the Santa Barbara
Channel this afternoon through late tonight. There is a 40-50
percent chance for SCA winds in the western half of the channel in
the afternoon and evening hours Thursday and Friday. Then, SCA
level winds will occur across the entirety of the waters south of
Point Conception Saturday afternoon through late Sunday. Seas
will build to 10 feet as early as Saturday evening and continue
into late Sunday. There is a 30-40 percent chance for Gales during
this period. Conditions will improve Monday and Tuesday, but
there is a 20-40 percent chance for SCA winds in the western half
of the SB Channel in the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox