539
FXUS66 KLOX 021644
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
944 AM PDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...01/844 PM.

Fairly steady conditions will continue through early next week
with temperatures a little below normal and night to morning low
clouds and fog across the coasts and some valleys. Afternoon
temperatures will mostly be in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the
coasts and mid 80s to mid 90s in the valleys. Seasonally gusty
southwest to northwest winds will also continue each day over the
interior areas and southwest Santa Barbara County. A significant
warming trend is expected by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...02/843 AM.

***UPDATE***

The forecast is well on-track, and no changes have been made to
the ongoing forecast.

***From Previous Discussion***

The upper high that was to the east of the state is shifting to
the west and will be over the CA/Mex border by Sunday morning.
Hgts will peak near 596 dam today and then slowly fall off to
about 592 dam Monday as the upper high weakens. At the sfc there
will be weak to mdt onshore flow to both the east and north today
and Sunday. Offshore flow will develop Sunday night and Monday
morning from the north while the E/W grad trend toward neutral.

The marine layer is hovering around 900 ft and marine layer
stratus covers the coasts and Santa Ynez Vly. A weak eddy is also
bringing it into the San Gabriel Vly with a 30 percent chc of low
clouds making it into the eastern San Fernando Vly. The strong
marine inversion coupled with mdt onshore flow to the east in the
afternoon will likely keep some beaches across SBA and VTA
counties cloudy all day. The offshore push on Monday will reduce
the amount of low clouds south of Pt Conception. There will be a
weak Sundowner tonight across the western portion of the SBA
south coast. Max temps today and Sunday will warm a few degrees
each day with mid 70s to mid 80s across the csts (near 70 at the
beaches) and mid 80s to mid 90s across the vlys. These max temps
are fairly close to the seasonal normals.

Sunday evening the north push arrive and there will be gusty
northerly winds across the SBA south coast and the I-5 corridor.
The sundowner across the SBA south coast looks to be a decent
event affecting both the western and eastern halves of the area.
Advisory level gusts from 45 to 55 mph are likely.

On Monday the northerly offshore flow will bring a degree or 2 of
warming to the csts and vlys but it will cool the interior by a
few degrees.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...02/1226 AM.

Not much change expected on Tuesday. The same trof will be to the
NW and the same upper high will be over NM. Hgts will be near 591
dam. The morning low clouds will only affect the csts and may
linger at the western VTA/SBA county beaches in the afternoon. Look
for mid 70s to mid 80s across the csts away from the beaches and
mid 80s to mid 90s over the vlys.

A significant warming trend will begin Wednesday at the upper
strengthens and moves westward. Hgts will increase to around 594
dam. Onshore flow will remain at the sfc so most of the csts will
be protected from the increase in temps. The night through morning
low clouds will continue and due to the increasing strength of the
marine inversion may struggle to clear some beaches.

Look for 2 to 4 locally 5 degrees of warming away from the csts
each day Wed and Thu. The upper high weakens some Friday and most
areas will cool 1 to 2 degrees.

Thursday will be the warmest day with the vly temps rising to 95
to 105 with isolated 107 degree readings in the western San
Fernando Vly. Max temps across the lower mtn elevations and far
interior will range from 100 to 108 degrees. Most of these highs
are 8 to 12 degrees above normal. Since it is August the daily
records are quite high but there is a 30 percent chc that there
will be record heat. The beaches will stay in the 70s but the
inland coastal sections could see max temps in the mid 90s. Min
temps will mostly be 2 to 4 degrees above normal but areas right
at the top of the marine inversion (likely ~1000 ft) may see lows
in the lower to mid 70s. Evaluation of the need for heat hazards
will start early next week, but preparing now for very hot
weather next week is strongly encouraged.

There are still no strong signals for a return of monsoon
conditions through next week, however a vast majority of the
ensembles continue to show moisture returning the following week,
beginning around Aug 11 along with a chance for another bout of
hot temps.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1644Z.

At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3900 feet with a temperature of 22 C.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in VFR conditions for KWJF
and KPMD.

For KBUR, KVNY and KPRB, moderate confidence in 18Z TAFs with a
20-30% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions 08Z-16Z.

For remainder of TAFs, moderate confidence as timing of flight
category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts.

Smoke from Gifford Fire may impact TAF sites from KSMX southward
through the period, including inhibition of CIGs overnight.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast. No significant
easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance
of IFR conditions 13Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...02/634 AM.

High confidence in northwest winds being dominant well into next
week, peaking Sunday night through Monday night. There is a 20
percent chance of winds reaching Gale strength Saturday Night for
the waters beyond 20 miles from shore, increasing to a 70 percent
chance for Sunday Night through Monday Night. A Gale Watch will be
posted as a result. High confidence in short period seas rising
everywhere as a result.

For the nearshore waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and
seas are likely for the Central Coast each afternoon and evening
through at least Monday. The western Santa Barbara Channel will
also reach SCA levels, but should be only over a small enough area
to not need an SCA through Sunday morning, with a 70 percent
chance of needing one by Sunday night.

Tropical Storm Gil, currently south of Cabo San Lucas, will
generate a 12 second south swell of 2 to 4 feet Saturday night
into Monday.

Visibilities will likely lower through the weekend, with dense fog
expected along the Central Coast by Saturday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 10
      PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late
      Monday night for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/Cohen
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RK/RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW/RK/CS

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox