196
FXUS66 KLOX 031152
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
452 AM PDT Sun May 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...03/209 AM.

A weak low pressure system will bring cooler weather to the area
today. It will remain cool on Monday and Tuesday with a slight
chance of drizzle or a light shower. Gusty onshore winds are
expected at times. Dry and warmer conditions are likely Wednesday
through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...03/225 AM.

Strong onshore flow, an eddy and lift from an approaching low will
all team up to bring low clouds to all of the csts/vlys and even
the interior vlys of SLO and SBA counties. The marine layer is
already 2000 ft deep and will be deeper still after dawn. Many
portions of the nearshore area will see limited or no clearing
today. The deep marine layer may turn into a strata-cu deck over
the vlys keeping them mostly cloudy as well. Nearshore temps
(which lowered ydy) will see 2 to 4 degrees of additional cooling
while 6 to 12 degrees of cooling will be the norm for the rest of
the area. Cst/vly temps will only be in the mid 60s to lower 70s
today.

On Monday and Tuesday a 559 dam upper low will slowly approach and
then move across Srn CA. PWs are only around .7 inches and there
are not much dynamics with the system either, so this will not be
much of a rain maker. In fact, the only areas with any real sort
of chance of rain will be the mtns and the foothill regions. In
other areas the upper low may provide just enough lift through the
deep marine layer to squeeze out some drizzle. The mtns will
likely be mostly cloudy through the period and there will be
substantial marine layer clouds but there will be areas of
sunshine as well esp in the afternoons.

On Monday max temps will not change much across the csts and vlys
but the mtns and the far interior will see another 5 to 10 degrees
of cooling. Highs in the Antelope Vly will only be in the mid 60s
or 13 degrees blo normals. On Tuesday there will be some warming
due to increased sunshine. The SBA south coast will warm the most
(4 or 5 degrees) as some downsloping winds will develop in the
wake of the low.

Later Tuesday, gusty west to northwest winds will develop,
possibly near advisory levels across the Antelope Valley. At the
same time somewhat weaker north winds will occur in the mtns from
the I-5 corridor west to the SBA mtns.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...03/242 AM.

Weak ridging builds into the state on Wednesday and persists
through Friday before turning into dry NW flow on Saturday. As is
typical for May there will be moderate to strong onshore flow to
the east through the period. Many of the csts and some lower vlys
will likely have night through morning low clouds and fog. Hgts
are not too high so the fog will likely not be dense. Aside from
the low clouds skies should be mostly clear. The strong push to
the east will bring moderate seabreezes and gusty afternoon winds
in the Antelope VLy.

Look for massive warming Wednesday as sunny skies and rapidly
rising hgts combine to bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming across the
csts; 5 to 10 degrees across the vlys and 10 to 15 locally 18
degrees across the mtns and far interior. Thursday will see
continued warming with most areas picking up an extra 4 to 8
degrees. Another 1 to 3 degree added to the max temps on Friday
will bring the beaches up to the lower 70s with mid 70s to lower
80s further inland. The vlys will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
90s will be common across the far interior and lower mtn
elevations. Cstl temps will be about 6 degrees over normal and the
rest of the area will mostly be 8 to 12 degrees above average.
Continued warm over the weekend with little day to day change in
the temps.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1144Z.

At 1122Z at KLAX, the marine layer was over 4000 feet deep.

High confidence TAFs for KWJF and KPMD.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Cigs could be anywhere
between 015 and 035 in the morning and 030 and 050 in the
afternoon. Low confidence in afternoon fcst for sites at the cst
with about a 50/50 chc of no clearing or brief clearing.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs could range between 025
and 040 aft 18Z. There there is a 30 percent chc of SCT conds
21Z-01Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of
SCT conds aft 19Z. There is a 25 percent chc cigs will rise no
higher than 030.

&&

.MARINE...03/227 AM.

High confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) levels across all coastal waters through Monday.
There is a 30-60% chance of SCA level W to NW winds across the
waters south of Point Conception Tuesday afternoon and evening.
SCA conditions are most likely near the Channel Islands and
across the Santa Barbara Channel.

Also, there is a 30% chance for SCA winds across the nearshore
waters along the Central Coast during the aforementioned
timeframe.

From Wednesday through Friday, winds are expected to increase
each day across the Outer Waters and along the Central coast.
SCA winds are possible on Wednesday, and likely Thursday into
Friday. These winds could impact western portion of SB Channel
by then.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox