652
FXUS66 KLOX 101056
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
356 AM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...10/256 AM.

Today there is a slight chance of showers across eastern Los
Angeles County due to tropical moisture. Areas of gusty winds out
of the north will begin this afternoon and will peak Saturday and
Saturday night. Winds will become northeasterly Sunday morning,
resulting in drier conditions and clear skies. There is the
potential for a significant rain event Monday through Wednesday
this upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...10/315 AM.

Current satellite observations show Los Angeles County within the
far periphery of mositure bands from Tropical Cyclone Priscilla.
The mositure will last through today for LA County, thus a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms remains, focused over the
extreme eastern portion of LA County, mainly the eastern San
Gabriel Mountains. Even so, based on the minimal precipitation
thus far and the strong steering flow, risk of flash flooding is
minimal with only light rain if any expected. A few lighting
strikes and gusty winds will be possible with any convective
cells that develop.

A trough of low pressure will dig down into the region, bringing
areas of gusty north- northwest winds starting this afternoon and
peaking on Saturday and Saturday night. Winds will be the
strongest along the Central Coast, southern Santa Barbara County,
the Interstate 5 corridor, and the western Antelope Valley and
foothills, along with favored interior mountains. Wind Advisories
have be issued for these areas.

Late Saturday night into Sunday morning, as the trough travels to
the east, surface pressure gradients will become offshore from
both the N-S direction and E-W direction. This will drive weak-
to-moderate offshore north-northeasterly (Santa Ana) winds across
favored mountains, the Santa Clarita Valley, and the hills above
Santa Barbara City. Gusts will likely peak around 30 to 40 mph
across the higher terrain and favored foothills. Sunday conditions
will become noticeably drier with clear skies, and the brief
Santa Ana event will yield elevated fire weather.

Daytime highs today will slightly above normal south of Point
Conception, followed by a drop in temperatures as a result of the
passing trough. Most areas will see highs a few degrees below
normal this weekend, although the offshore flow will lead to
slightly above normal temperatures for some valley areas on
Sunday.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...10/355 AM.

For next week, confidence is increasing in widespread rainfall
between Monday night and Wednesday. An upper low is expected to
drop from Canada and travel along the US western coast into the
region. The low is favored to produce a significant storm system
for the region, which would be a strong start to the new water
year. There remain a range of outcomes and impact levels, and the
public is encouraged to continue to follow the weather forecast
over the next several days.

The bulk of the rain is likely to fall Monday night through
Tuesday, with the core of the rain traveling from north to south
across the region. Wednesday showers are likely to linger, with
the greatest chance of convective thunderstorms, as the center of
the low will be closest to the region. Confidence is low for
rainfall totals, however there is high confidence that San Luis
Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties will see greater rainfall totals
than Ventura and LA Counties. There is the potential for storm
total rain as high as 2.0-3.0 inches for San Luis Obispo and Santa
Barbara Counties, and as high as 1.0-2.0 inches for LA and
Ventura Counties. Impacts with higher rain amounts may include
local areas of flash flooding and debris flow issues for recent
Burn Scars. Terrain driven rain enchantment is possible for south
and west facing slopes, especially along the Santa Lucia
Mountains. However, there is still a chance for minimal impacts
and just a period of light rain with this storm, especially for
Los Angeles County.

With this potentially being the first impactful storm of the
season, residents are encouraged to prepare by allowing for extra
travel time (roadways may be extra slick due to built up oil
residue), clearing out gutters, adjusting outdoor activities,
have multiple ways to receive weather and emergency alerts, and
stay informed about individual flooding risks (especially for
those residing near or in recent burn scars).

The storm system may also bring areas of Advisory Level gusty
winds, and much cooler than normal temperatures through next
week. With these low temperatures, there is even a small chance of
mountain snow for the highest peaks.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1028Z.

Around 09Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX. There was a
surface-based inversion up to around 2700 feet with a temperature
around 23 degrees Celsius.

Low to moderate confidence in the current forecast. LIFR to IFR
conditions are possible at terminals north of Point Mugu through
18Z this morning. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms
through this evening at Los Angeles County terminals. After 08Z
Saturday, there is a low-to-moderate chance of LIFR to IFR for
terminals north of Point Conception.

KLAX...There is a 5-10 percent chance of a thunderstorm through
this afternoon. Any east winds are likely to remain less than 7
knots, but there is a less than 5 percent chance of significant
easterly winds due to storm outflow should thunderstorms develop
east of the terminal.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a
5-10 percent chance of a thunderstorm through this afternoon. No
wind impacts are expected at this time, but there is a less than 5
percent chance of a significant wind impact due to storm outflow.

&&

.MARINE...10/318 AM.

For the waters outside the southern California bight from southwest
through northwest of the Channel Islands, including the nearshore
waters along the Central Coast, winds will increase through this
Saturday afternoon. Widespread Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
conditions will be very likely to imminent (70-90 percent) by
tonight, and continuing through at least early Sunday morning.
There is a likely (60-70 percent) chance of GALES this afternoon
through Saturday evening, highest from the waters near Point
Conception south to San Nicolas Island. There could be some lulls
in the winds during late night and early morning hours, but seas
will likely remain at SCA levels through Sunday. There is a
moderate to high (30-50 percent) chance of widespread SCA
conditions lingering into early Monday morning. Due to the GALES
and hazardous seas, inexperienced boaters should seek or remain
in safe harbor.

Inside the southern California bight, conditions are expected to
remain below SCA levels through this morning, then there is a
high-to-likely (45-65 percent) chance of SCA conditions across the
bight, highest across the Santa Barbara Channel from this
afternoon through Sunday. Winds will be strongest across the
western portion, which has a moderate-to-high (30-50 percent) chance
of GALES Saturday afternoon and evening, but widespread SCA level
conditions have a high chance of developing on Saturday afternoon
and evening. Short-period hazardous seas could develop across the
Santa Barbara Channel on Saturday evening, with winds and seas
potentially reaching Ventura County harbors, such as Ventura and
Channel Islands Harbor during this time.

Moisture associated with rapidly weakening Tropical Cyclone
Priscilla off the Baja California coast will move north through
this evening. There is a slight (10-20 percent) chance of showers
and thunderstorms for the southern coastal waters, highest from
south of Dana Point into the San Pedro Channel adjacent to Los
Angeles and Orange Counties. Any thunderstorm that forms will be
capable of producing locally gale force winds and rough seas,
dangerous lightning, and heavy rainfall with reduced visibility,
and even a waterspout.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from noon Saturday to 10 AM PDT
      Sunday for zones 88-350-352-353-375>379-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from noon Saturday to midnight PDT
      Saturday night for zones 340-341-346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PDT
      Sunday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM
      PDT Saturday for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through late
      Saturday night for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Sunday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox