971
FXUS66 KLOX 230017
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
417 PM PST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...22/110 PM.

Rain chances will develop along the Central Coast this evening,
then spread across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties by Saturday.
Light rain is expected at times tonight through Saturday with
generally minimal accumulations. Periods of rain expected Sunday
through Tuesday, especially north of Point Conception.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...22/138 PM.

The large cyclone off the Pac NW coast has split into two which
are pinwheeling around each other. The southern extent of the
moisture is around Monterey, but that will be sagging south
tonight and through early next week as the main upper low shifts
south to near the OR/CA border. With the upper low remaining that
far north that will limit the impacts and rainfall amounts
locally.

For today dry weather (literally very dry with humidities still
under 10% away from the coast) expected through the daylight
hours with increasing chances this evening across SLO County and
working its way south overnight into Saturday for Ventura/LA
counties. Latest ensembles as well as the hi res models all
indicating 3-5 hours of very light amounts with this first
impulse, mostly under a quarter inch most areas. Locally up to a
half inch in the upslope areas of SLO/SB Counties. For LA County
light rain expected to start mid to late morning with most areas
under a tenth of an inch and many areas possibly not receiving
more than a trace.

After that there`s a roughly 24-36 hour break before the second
impulse comes through Sunday (for SLO County) and later Sunday
into Monday south of there. The 12z ENS solutions definitely
ticked up across SLO County, with the precip means between now
between 1 and 1.5 inches. Which means upslope areas in the Santa
Lucias could be looking at around 3" or rain with with this
impulse through Tuesday. The GEFS means remain well under an inch
in all areas so still some uncertainty there. Even with these
slightly higher numbers the chances for any significant flooding
issues remains under 10%.

Amounts drop off quite a bit to the south, and especially south of
Santa Barbara with totals through Tuesday still under 1 inch and
likely under a half inch for most of LA County. No snow and wind
issues expected, though it will be breezy at times, mainly at the
higher elevations.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...22/155 PM.

Still a possibility of some lingering light showers Wednesday but
the ensembles have basically gone back to a dry pattern the
remainder of the week and through the Thanksgiving weekend. There
are some indications of increasing offshore flow but so far the
ENS ensembles are mostly on the weak to moderate side, which
matches up well with the deterministic LAX-DAG gradients which
are between -4 and -5.5mb while the GFS gradients are weaker.
Temperatures will be on a steady but slow climb each day but
generally remaining slightly below normal through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...23/0016Z.

At 23Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface
based inversion with a top at 1400 ft with a temperature of 19 C.

Moderate to high confidence in the TAFs. Cig/vsby restrictions and
light rain are forecast to spread southward across areas north of
Pt. Conception this evening. Light rain coverage will be less as
the activity spreads farther south tonight, though MVFR cigs are
still expected south of Pt. Conception tonight into Saturday.
Onset times of cig/vsby restrictions may vary by +/- 3 hours from
current forecasts. Minimum cigs/vsbys could be off by a category
or two. The light rain will be departing the region later on
Saturday, when cigs/vsbys improve.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions through this evening.
MVFR cigs are expected thereafter. There is a 40% chance for
onset times of cig restrictions to vary by +/- 3 hours from
current forecasts, and a 40% chance for minimum cigs to be off by
a category. There is a 20% chance for light rain to impact the
TAF site tonight into Saturday morning. There is a 40% chance for
winds to become easterly and exceed 8 kt Saturday 12Z-21Z.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through this evening.
MVFR cigs are expected thereafter. There is a 40% chance for
onset times of cig restrictions to vary by +/- 3 hours from
current forecasts, and a 40% chance for minimum cigs to be off by
a category. There is a 25% chance for light rain to impact the
TAF site tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...22/148 PM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are forecast over the northern
and central Outer Waters (PZZ670/PZZ673) through tonight, and
across the northern inner waters (PZZ645) tonight. Otherwise, SCA
conditions are unlikely across the coastal waters through next
week. Areas of light rain will occur at times through next week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM PST
      Saturday for zones 340-344. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PST Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Cohen/Black
MARINE...Cohen
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox