277
FXUS66 KLOX 052022
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
122 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...05/110 PM.

Night and morning low clouds and fog will continue for the next
several days for coast and valleys with slow, if any clearing at
the coast. Cooler than normal temperatures are expected through
the end of the week, then a warming trend will develop for the
weekend and through next week, especially away from the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...05/110 PM.

A weak upper low over the Bay Area is expected to be nudged
westward Friday and out over the Pacific Friday and through the
weekend as a stronger trough drops into the Great Basin and
northern Rockies. This will have a couple of impacts locally. The
one most people will notice will be warming temperatures as
heights/thicknesses rise in response to the upper low moving
farther west. The marine layer depth will in turn decrease with
earlier clearing times in most areas. A moderate to strong onshore
flow may prevent stratus clearing from some beaches, especially
Ventura and southern Santa Barbara Counties as the onshore flow to
the north remains quite strong (>5mb). Otherwise, high
temperatures are expected to rise 2-5 degrees each day through the
weekend with highs in the mid 90s in the warmer valleys by Sunday.

The second impact will be decreasing chances for afternoon
convection over the mountains as there will be less moisture and
instability to work with.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...05/120 PM.

No significant changes to the 4-7 day forecast. One additional
day of warming Monday with 500mb heights up to around 591dam which
could push warmest valley highs close to 100, but not quite
enough for heat advisories. A shallow marine layer will confine
stratus to just the coastal zones.

A weak trough will return to the West Coast Tue-Fri for a modest
cooling trend. Inland areas will likely remain several degrees
above normal at least through Wednesday, then dipping slightly
below normal Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1926Z.

At 18Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4400 feet with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in all remaining TAFs. Flight cat change
timing may be off by +/- 90 min and cig hgt by +/- 300 ft. There
is a 30 percent chance that VFR conds prevail for KPRB.

KLAX...Moderate confidence TAF. There is a 30 percent chance that
return of bkn/ovc cigs is delayed until 05-07Z. No significant
east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...05/422 AM.

High confidence in unseasonably quiet conditions through Friday
morning with no Small Craft Advisories (SCA) needed. More
seasonally typical northwest to west winds will form south of
Point Conception during the afternoon to evening hours starting
Thursday, possibly reaching SCA levels as early as Friday with
short period choppy seas likely nearshore. These winds should be
ongoing into the weekend and become more widespread with the
strongest gusts focused on the southern outer waters and western
portions of the Santa Barbara Channel. Next week will bring
increasing chances for both SCA winds and seas.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...Phillips/Black
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox