504
FXUS66 KLOX 061156
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
456 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...06/1205 AM.

Cooler than normal conditions will continue through midweek due
to a broad area of upper-level low pressure over the West. Night
through morning low clouds and fog will continue through the
week. There is a slight chance of rain for late in the week for
L.A county.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...06/305 AM.

Warm sea sfc temps and weak gradients have teamed up to slow and
limit the marine layer clouds. By dawn low clouds will cover most
of the coasts, but the vlys will be mostly clear. The marine layer
is much shallower north of Pt Conception and some dense fog has
formed there. Clearing will be completed today by mid morning.
Ydy`s cool air across the interior will scour out and max temps
there will warm 2 to 4 degrees, there will be little change or
perhaps a few degrees of cooling across the csts. Most max temps
will end up 2 to 4 degrees blo normal.

A weak upper low will set up to the west of Monterey county
Tuesday. This will bring a little more cyclonic flow to the area
and should help the marine layer cloud deck to form earlier with
more extensive coverage. This will not have much affect on the
temps which will be similar today`s.

The upper low tries to pass through the state on Wednesday but is
subsumed by the increasing SW flow assoc with a huge upper
centered to the west of Seattle. It will bring enough lift to push
low clouds into many of the vlys and delay clearing some. Onshore
flow will increase (esp to the east) and it will be breezy across
the beaches and Antelope Vly. Max temps will nose dive with the
deeper marine layer, cool air advection and the enhanced sea
breeze. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of cooling over most of the area.
Max temps will be mostly in the 70s across the csts and lower to
mid 80s in the vlys. These temps are 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...06/1229 AM.

On Thursday a cool (546 dam) and very large upper low will work
its way southward just off of the west coast. It will remain far
enough to the north of Srn CA that the only effects it will bring
are increasing SW flow and cyclonic turning as well as slowly
falling hgts. There is a big wrinkle in the fcst - Tropical
storm Priscilla. Most ensembles forecast a no issues westward
track, but 15 to 20 percent do show just enough of a faster more
eastward track that bring rain to LA county. If that happens it
will be cloudier and cooler than current fcst shows. The more
likely scenario calls for minimal marine layer (only the Central
Coast) several degrees of warming for the csts/vlys.

Mdls continue to struggle with the Priscilla track on Friday. 15
to 20 percent of the ensembles do advect enough moisture into the
southern portion of the forecast area to bring a slight chc of
rain for most of LA County and to a lesser extent VTA county. The
rest of the fcst is pretty hazy and really dependent on how
Priscilla interacts with the large upper low which should reach
the waters off of Humbolt county and then begin a turn to the
east.

The upper low transverses Nrn Ca on Saturday and it will sweep
drier air into the area. This will eliminate the threat of rain.
It will bring enough cool air and mixing to disrupt the marine
layer as well. It will bring cool air advection and gusty
offshore flow from the north. Max temps will drop 3 to 6 locally 8
degrees as cool air moves in with the low passage. Max temps will
be 3 to 6 degrees blo normal with most cst temps in the upper 60s
to mid 70s with the vlys coming in with mid 70s to mid 80s.

Sunday will be dry and breezy day with a 4 to 5 mb offshore push
from the north. Max temps will not change much from Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1156Z.

At 1050Z, the marine layer was 1300 feet deep. The top of the
inversion was near 2200 feet with a temperature of 17 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KPMD and KWJF.

Good confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY with a 15 percent
chance of IFR conds 14Z-16Z.

Moderate confidence in all coastal TAFs VFR transitions could be
off by +/- 90 minutes.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds could arrive anytime
from 13Z-14Z. Low clouds may arrive as 06Z this evening. Good
confidence that any east wind component will be under 6 kt.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAF with a 15 percent chc of BKN008
conds 14Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...06/352 AM.

Winds across the outer waters and nearshore along the Central
Coast are below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels, some choppy,
short-period waves may linger this morning for the waters near
Point Conception. Conditions are likely to remain below SCA
criteria through Thursday with increasing winds to near or above
SCA levels possible by Friday. SCA winds look likely for the
weekend.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions
should generally remain below SCA criteria through mid week.
There will then be a 20-40% chance for SCA level winds Thursday
and Friday, with the best chances for the Santa Barbara Channel.
There is a 60% chance for SCA winds for Saturday evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Phillips/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox