170
FXUS66 KLOX 050250
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
750 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...04/733 PM.

Temperatures will be near normal for July through at least this
weekend, with overnight to morning low clouds and fog continuing
for the coasts and valleys. Tuesday through much of next week an
extended period of well above normal temperatures is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...04/749 PM.

***UPDATE***

The most significant updates for the evening shift include gusty
northerly winds over Southwest Santa Barbara County and areas of
smoke over Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo County associated
with the large Madre Fire. In addition, low clouds and fog over
the Santa Maria Valley and coastal areas south of Point
Conception.

The northerly winds over the Santa Ynez Range and SB South Coast
are near but below Advisory level of 45 mph gusts. Both the NAM12
and FV3 models indicate winds diminishing after 800 PM, so while
conditions will be gusty with local Advisory level gusts possible
through the next 1-2 hours, do not believe an Advisory is needed.

As for the marine layer clouds, in addition to the Santa Maria
Valley, expect stratus and patchy fog over the eastern SB South
Coast and down to the Oxnard Plain, along the lower Santa Monicas
to the LA Basin and San Gabriel Valley. Coverage overall will be
limited closer to the coast due to onshore surface pressure
gradients weakening or trending slightly offshore.

***From Previous Discussion***

A weak trough will persist along the West Coast through early next
week keeping temperatures a few degrees below normal in most
areas. However, some warming is expected Saturday south of Pt
Conception as CAMS are indicating a 3-5mb offshore trend to the
east and north, resulting less stratus coverage and a lower depth
and earlier clearing. Already seeing signs of that this afternoon
as the marine layer stratus has rapidly cleared much of the
Central Coast. Stratus is expected to return there Saturday
afternoon and night however.

Otherwise, more of the same weather through the weekend into
Monday with just minor variations in temperatures. Some gusty
Sundowner winds are expected this evening across southern Santa
Barbara County and typical afternoon and evening breezes in the
Antelope Valley.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...04/229 PM.

A warming trend is expected to begin Tuesday and last most of the
rest of next week, peaking Wed and Thu as strong high pressure
(595-597dam) expands west from Arizona to encompass most of
southern and Central California. There still remains some
uncertainty regarding how far west the heat will reach as some
models are more conservative with the temperatures. One factor that
will need to be monitored will be the pressure gradients. Some of
the solutions today showed gradients actually turning lightly
offshore Wednesday which would a strong signal for a very hot
pattern. However, most solutions are indicating a moderate to even
a strong onshore pattern which would mitigate some of the heat
impacts and confine the hottest temperatures to the deserts and
interior SLO/SB Counties. The most likely scenario at this time is
for the warmer valleys to peak at 100-105, deserts 105-108,
inland coastal areas in the 80s to low 90s, and beaches in the 70s
to low 80s. Some cooling is expected by Friday for the coast and
valleys but little change for the interior areas until at least
next weekend. Heat advisories and/or warnings are possible with
this event and that determination will be made by later this
weekend or Monday depending on how the pattern evolves over the
coming days.

Models today have backed off slightly with the monsoon moisture
for the middle and end of next week but can`t completely rule
that out just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0138Z.

At 0004Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was around 2300 feet with a temperature of 25 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KWJF and KPMD).

Moderate confidence in flight categories (may be one flight cat
lower than fcst), and low confidence in timing (off by +/- 2
hours) for remaining TAFs except for KBUR, KVNY, and KPRB. Also,
there is a 20% chance CIGs do not arrive at KSBP and KSBA.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and departure times of
CIGs may be off by 2 hours. There is a 30% chance cigs remain
above 010 (MVFR). There is a 20% chance for CIGs to linger from
17Z Sat - 00Z Sun. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...04/748 PM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are likely across the Outer
Waters and the northern Inner Waters much of the time through the
4th of July Weekend. Local Gale Force wind gusts are possible at
times through Sunday, with the best chances in the northern
Outer/Inner Water this evening (PZZ645/670). Sig Wave heights
will peak around 8 to 10 feet through the weekend.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a moderate chance
of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening Friday through the
weekend across western & southern portions of the Santa Barbara
Channel. Local gusts up to 21 kts may occur near Point Dume, and
into the San Pedro Channel during the aforementioned time.

Patchy dense fog may affect the coastal waters, especially north
of Point Conception overnight and in the morning hours through
this weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Sunday evening for
      zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones
      645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Ciliberti
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Lewis/Black/KL
SYNOPSIS...MW/Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox