779
FXUS66 KLOX 150308
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
808 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...14/804 PM.

Night through morning marine layer clouds will continue for the
coast and valleys, shrinking in coverage each day into next week.
Cooler than normal temperatures through this weekend. Hot and dry
conditions to return next week with potential for heat impacts
especially across the interior. Warmest Tuesday through Thursday
and could linger into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...14/804 PM.

***UPDATE***

The weak trough situated along the west coast is expected
to gradually weaken through Sunday. Upper level flow will back,
becoming more southerly as ridging develops and builds into
next week.

As a result, hot and dry conditions with fire weather concerns
are likely - starting Monday and persisting through at least
mid-week. Current guidance suggests Tuesday-Thursday being the
hottest and location wise San Fernando and Antelope valleys.
30-50% chance of heat advisory for portions of the mountains,
valleys, and interior coast. There is potential for Downtown
LA reaching or exceeding 90 F. Moderate to likely chance for
100 F readings across the hottest locations (such as above).

Have adjusted Max Temperatures upward to better represent
current thoughts for this period. There is also a chance
for advisory level sundowner winds each day, but confidence
is low to moderate.

***From Previous Discussion***

Low clouds from a deep marine inversion this morning largely
cleared back to or off the coast of VTU/L.A. Counties by early
this afternoon, but have lingered along the S SBA County coast and
the Central Coast. The stratus should persist in those areas for
a while this afternoon, otherwise mostly sunny skies should
prevail elsewhere. Good onshore flow can be expected this
afternoon with breezy to gusty SW to W winds. Temps will be about
4-10 deg cooler-than-normal across the region this afternoon,
with highs from the 70s along the coast to the 80s inland, except
around 90 in the Antelope Vly.

A broad upper level trof along and just off the coast with H5
heights around 581-583 dam this morning will drift westward over
the next couple of days as upper level ridging starts to build
back toward the forecast area. By Sun afternoon, H5 heights are
forecast to rebound back to 591-593 dam, then increase further to
594-595 dam by Mon afternoon. The upper level flow will largely
remain out of the SW thru the period.

The marine inversion is forecast to lower each night thru the
short term from about 2500-3000 feet tonight to 1000 ft or less by
Sun night. Low clouds will also have a lesser inland extent each
night and morning, with an increase in fog especially along the
coast and by Mon morning it would not be out of the question for
patchy dense fog to develop in some areas. Aside from the low
clouds and fog, skies will be mostly clear through the period
altho some afternoon cu buildups in the mtns will still be
possible. Breezy to gusty SW to W afternoon winds can be expected
each day. Temps are forecast to be several degrees below seasonal
norms on Sat then warm several degrees by Mon to near normal to
slightly below normal.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...14/142 PM.

The EC and GFS deterministic and mean ensembles are in generally
good agreement thru the extended period. Upper level ridging will
build into SE CA by Tue then expand a bit further in srn CA on
Wed. The upper high will then build back toward the Four Corners
area on Thu and linger in this general area into Fri as an upper
level trof approaches the central CA coast.

For SW CA, marine layer low clouds and fog will likely affect
portions of the coast each night and morning with minimal inland
penetration due to a shallow inversion. Otherwise, mostly clear
skies should continue. There is also a hint that some monsoonal
moisture may try to start moving back into L.A. County on Fri with
the potential for afternoon convection in the mtns and deserts,
but there is still too much uncertainty at this time to include
any mention of this in the fcst.

A northerly surface pressure gradient is forecast to develop
early next week, likely bringing gusty northerly winds across
southern Santa Barbara County and through the Interstate 5
Corridor. Advisory level Sundowner winds could develop during this
time, but there is some uncertainty in the timing and the actual
strength of the winds.

Temps will warm up to above normal levels for many areas during
the extended period, likely peaking Wed and Thu when highs could
reach triple digits in the hottest vly and desert areas.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0005Z.

At 2309Z at KLAX, the marine layer was at 1800 feet deep. The top
of the inversion was near 3100 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Arrival of IFR or MVFR
CIGs and subsequent VFR transitions may be off +/- 3 hours.
No significant wind issues expected for these airfields.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing of MVFR
CIGs should be +/- 3 hrs of current forecast. CIGs will likely
hover near 2,000 ft threshold. There is a 30% chance of brief
(10% chc of intermittent) IFR CIGs around 008 thru 15/15Z.
No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival of MVFR CIGs may be
off +/- 3 hours of current forecast. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...14/806 PM.

High confidence that conditions will remain below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) criteria across the coastal waters through Saturday
morning. There is a 40-60 percent chance of SCA winds developing
over the outer waters from near Point Conception southward to San
Nicolas Island and in the vicinity of the Channel Islands. Further
north over PZZ670 there is a 30-40 percent chance of SCA gusts
from late Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night.

There is a better chance of SCA winds developing Sunday afternoon
from near Point Conception and southward over the outer waters,
and over the nearshore waters inside the S CA Bight. These
nearshore winds are likely to subside early Monday morning, but
with SCA winds continuing over the two southern outer zones
PZZ673-676. By Monday late afternoon or evening, SCA winds are
likely to expand northward to the outer and nearshore waters north
of Pt. Sal, and into the Santa Barbara Channel. Local gusts to 25
knots may affect portions of PZZ655 Monday evening.

Strong SCA winds are likely to persist over the outer waters
Tuesday and Wednesday, affecting the nearshore areas in the
afternoon and evening hours. Local gale force gusts will be
possible during this time. In addition, building short period
seas are expected, likely rising to around 8 feet over the outer
waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT
      Sunday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Sirard/Black
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Black

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox