408
FXUS66 KLOX 092206
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
206 PM PST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...09/204 PM.

It will be mild and dry through the remainder of this weekend and
into early Monday. Night through morning low clouds and fog will
return to the coasts and coastal valleys later this weekend. A
passing weather system will bring locally gusty winds for early
parts of the upcoming week, along with areas of light rain for
Monday afternoon and night north of Point Conception. It will be
drier and warmer later in the week, before the next weather system
affects the region for late week and into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...09/204 PM.

Modest offshore pressure gradients are forecast to continue
trending neutral through the remainder of this weekend, and
become increasingly onshore by early parts of the upcoming week
as weak and broad upper ridging gradually transitions eastward
over the local area. It will remain dry through the weekend.

An upper trough will amplify toward the region from the Pacific
Northwest on Monday, when preceding ascent combines with
increasing moisture to bring a few areas of light rain to the
Central Coast vicinity and the northern Ventura County mountains
Monday afternoon and night -- spreading from north to south.
Rainfall amounts should be less than a tenth inch north of Pt.
Conception. Farther south, the interior-CONUS trajectory of the
upper trough, combined with downslope drying, should prevent
precipitation from occurring over the coasts and coastal valleys.
Rain should have exited most of the area by Tuesday morning, when
large-scale subsidence and drying overspread the area behind the
trough.

Otherwise, mild temperatures are expected each day, with highs in
the 70s in most areas except 60s at the beaches. Highs will cool
off by several degrees across interior areas going from Monday
into Tuesday owing to the influence of the upper trough.

Onshore breezes will become increasingly prevalent through Monday,
however winds through Monday will be only light to moderate. As
the marine layer gradually builds and spreads inland owing to
onshore-trending pressure gradients, night through morning low
clouds and fog will become increasingly prevalent near the coast
and into coastal valleys -- starting by Sunday night and
especially on Monday. Some of the fog may be dense for Sunday
night, and potentially combine with smoke in southern Ventura
County vicinity to produce very low visibilities. There is a 40%
chance for night through morning Dense Fog Advisories to become
needed at some point through Monday.

Surface ridging beneath the aforementioned subsidence, to the
north of the local area, will drive pressure gradients offshore
late Monday, and prolong gusty winds over the high terrain into
at least Tuesday. By Monday night, northwest to north winds will
be strengthening over the high terrain. Gusty northwest to north
winds will gradually veer through Tuesday and Tuesday night. With
LAX-Bakersfield offshore pressure gradients strengthening upwards
to 5 or 6 mb by Tuesday, and given some upper support, there will
be a 40% chance for wind headlines to become necessary from
Monday night through Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...09/204 PM.

While winds will turn more northeasterly into Wednesday, present
indications are that speeds will be decreasing as surface
pressure falls quickly erode preceding surface ridging across the
Great Basin. Rising heights aloft behind the departing upper trough
for the middle of the upcoming week, and ample dry air overspreading
the area amid the light offshore flow, will support high temperatures
warming by several degrees for Wednesday and Thursday -- reaching
the middle 70s to near 80 degrees across the coastal slopes.

By the end of the upcoming week and into next weekend, the latest
multi-model consensus is indicating the development of a large
upper trough over the western states. This will bring chances for
light rain, and light snow over the highest elevations, along
with gusty high-terrain winds. Confidence in the details of these
conditions is limited by ongoing dispersion among model solutions
concerning the evolution of the large-scale trough.

&&

.AVIATION...09/1849Z.

At 18Z, there was no marine layer or inversion at KLAX.

High confidence in CAVU conditions and light winds for all TAF
sites.

KLAX...High confidence in the 18Z TAF. Any east wind component
between 12Z and 18Z Saturday should remain below 6 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in the 18Z CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...09/1100 AM.

For the Outer Waters, there is 20-30% chance of SCAs beginning
this evening/night, mostly from Pt Conception to San Nicolas
Island. Similar chances of SCA winds Sunday, but higher confidence
in at least SCA level winds late Monday and Tuesday, with a 20%
chance for GALES. Seas are expected to remain well below Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Monday, before an abrupt
increase to near 15 ft on Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters along the Central Coast, winds should remain
below SCA levels through Sunday. There is a 20% of SCA conds
Monday through Wednesday.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 20-30% chance for SCA
level winds during the afternoon/evening hours Sunday, with the
best chances for western portions and near Santa Cruz Island.
Higher confidence in more widespread SCA level winds Monday (50 to
60% chance). There is a low chance (10-20%) for GALES into the
Channel late Monday, but low confidence in maximum wind speeds and
duration.

For the Southern Inner Waters, conditions are expected to be
below SCA levels through Sunday. Better chances for SCA winds
Monday for northern and western portions of the zone (30% chance).

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Cohen
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...Phillips/Lewis/Black/Munroe
SYNOPSIS...Cohen

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox