185
FXUS66 KLOX 041454
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
754 AM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...04/312 AM.

Temperatures will be near normal for July through at least this
weekend, with overnight to morning low clouds and fog continuing
for the coasts and valleys. Tuesday through much of next week an
extended period of well above normal temperatures is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...04/310 AM.

Temperatures today will be a few degrees below normal, with
highs in the 70s for the coasts, 80s for most valleys, and mid
90s across the deserts. Weak troughing will maintain similar
temperatures this weekend, except for a couple degrees of warming
for the LA Basin. Overnight to morning marine layer clouds and
fog will continue for the coasts and valleys each day, even
lingering into the day at some beach locations. Smoke from the
Madre Fire in southeastern San Luis Obispo County may impact the
region, but will likely be fairly elevated for most areas. In
terms of winds, typical onshore west to southwesterly winds will
occur each afternoon and evening across interior areas including
the Antelope Valley, and northwest Sundowner winds will occur
each evening across southwestern Santa Barbara County.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...04/257 AM.

Weak troughing will continue for the region Monday and keep
conditions similar to the weekend, with temperatures generally
near or several degrees below normal. Tuesday through at least
Thursday a high pressure system will build centered over Arizona.
This will send 500 mb heights soaring over Southern California
with heights around 597 dam likely over Los Angeles County.
Temperatures will be notably warmer on Tuesday, with heat peaking
on Wednesday or Thursday for most areas. Temperatures will easily
surpass 100 degrees across the deserts and interior valleys and
mountains. Highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s will be common across
the coastal plains including DTLA, and even some coastal areas may
see temperatures well into the 80s, especially on Thursday.
Heat Advisories are likely to be issued for most valleys for mid
next week, though well above normal conditions may linger through
the next weekend. Additionally, if the forecast continues to trend
warmer, there is a chance that Extreme Heat Watches/Warnings will
be needed for many valley, desert, and mountain areas. Residents,
particular outdoor workers and those without air conditioning,
are advised to prepare for an extended period of above normal
temperatures.

Southeasterly flow aloft may bring some monsoonal mositure to the
region, with PWATs of an inch or more possible, especially for LA
County. This mositure combined with high surface heating will
offer a small chance for monsoonal thunderstorms each afternoon
Tuesday through Thursday. Thunderstorm chances will be focused
over the Antelope Valley and the San Gabriel Mountains, with
slimmer chances for the Ventura County Mountains and far eastern
Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties. Hazards with any
storm may include dry lightning fire starts, gusty winds, and
brief heavy downpour.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1136Z.

At 0818Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2100 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was around 4800 feet with a temperature of 21 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KWJF and KPMD with seasonal SW to
W winds.

High confidence in remaining TAFs through 03Z, then low to
moderate confidence thereafter. There is a chance for no low
clouds returning tonight at KSMX (30%), KOXR (30%), KCMA (40%),
KSMO/KLAX/KLGB (10%). There is a chance for low clouds at KSBP
(30%), KSBA (15%), KBUR (20%), and KVNY (20%). Arrival of cigs
tonight may be off by +/- 4 hours and minimum flight cat may be
off by one cat.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 03Z, then low confidence
thereafter. Clearing time may be off by +/- 90 minutes. Arrival of
cigs tonight may be as early as 03Z or as late as 09Z. Minimum cig
height may be off by +/- 400 feet tonight. There is a 10% chance
for no low clouds returning tonight. Moderate confidence in any
east wind component remaining under 6 kts.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF through 06Z, then low confidence
thereafter. Clearing time may be off by +/- 90 minutes. There is
a 20% chance of LIFR to IFR conds developing after 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/752 AM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are likely across the Outer
Waters and norther Inner Waters much of the time through the 4th
of July Weekend. Local Gale Force wind gusts are possible at times
through Sunday, with the best chances in the northern Outer/Inner
Water this afternoon into the evening hours (PZZ645/670).
Wave heights will peak around 8 to 10 feet through the weekend.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a moderate chance
of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening Friday through the
weekend across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel.
Local gusts up to 21 kts may occur near Point Dume, and into the
San Pedro Channel during the aforementioned time.

Patchy dense fog may affect the coastal waters, especially north
of Point Conception overnight and in the morning hours through
this weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday evening
      for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 6 PM PDT
      this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
      Saturday for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PDT Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis/Black
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox