261
FXUS66 KLOX 120340
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
840 PM PDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...11/707 PM.

A cooling trend will affect the region through the weekend with
high temperatures dropping to near or below normal almost
everywhere by Sunday. The sticky tropical air will finally exit
the region by Saturday. Night through morning marine layer clouds
will likely continue across most coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...11/840 PM.

***UPDATE***

Another sunny day occurred today, with high temperatures in the
70s and 80s at the coast, increasing into the 90s to barely 100
further away from the coast. High temps were 5 to 10 degrees below
yesterday for most of the region, except the Central Coast, where
temperatures were 10 to 20 degrees cooler. Despite being a bit
cooler, temps were still 5 to 15 degrees above normal for this
time of year. Overnight lows will be cooler as well, with most
areas in the 60s to very low 70s, especially as the tropical
moisture continues to decrease across the region. Marine layer
clouds will make a return tonight and expand across the Central
Coast, as well as across the Los Angeles County Coast and possibly
into the inland coast. However, the marine layer clouds over the
ocean along the Central Coast are starting to clear out, making it
questionable if the clouds will stick around long. Additionally,
a wind advisory is in effect until 3am for SW Santa Barbara
County for N to NW Sundowner winds.

As for tomorrow, another sunny day is on tap once the marine layer
clouds burn off. High temperatures will continue to decrease
across the region by about 5 to 10 degrees again, as well as the
tropical moisture decreasing even more. Another round of Sundowner
advisory level winds will occur tomorrow evening as well as night
through morning marine layer clouds across the coasts.

Allowed the heat advisories to expire on time, and no big updates
were needed for the evening forecast update.

***From Previous Discussion***

Heat advisories will continue through this evening for coastal
areas from Santa Barbara south through Los Angeles due to moderate
risk of heat illness with max temps forecast to be around 10
degrees above seasonal normals along with lingering humidity.
Some inland areas will be around 5 degrees above normal, but we
will hold off on any additional heat advisories.

Fairly quiet next few days once the heat advisories expire. The
ridge responsible for this past extreme heat event will continue
to flatten out through today and further cooling is expected
through at least Sunday, with areas south of Point Concpetion
cooling into Tuesday. In general max temps will be below seasonal
normals Saturday into at least early next week. Maybe more
noticeable will be the decreasing humidity ad PWATs drop from
around 1.5" to 0.75" by tomorrow night.

The one exception to the quiet weather is the potential for
advisory level Sundowner winds tonight through the weekend,
likely peaking Saturday or Sunday. A wind advisory has been issued
for tonight across the Santa Barbara southwest coast.

Expecting a more robust marine layer tonight with stratus
currently hugging the Central Coast and a patch spinning off the
LA County Coast. Then a more consistent marine layer will likely
be common, except for southern Santa Barbara County and possibly
Ventura County since the Sundowners may keep clouds from surging
into the Santa Barbara Channel.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...11/110 PM.

Not much change through Wednesday, with zonal flow continuing at
the upper levels. Temperatures will remain below seasonal
normals. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue with light
northerly offshore flow each night through morning. There will
likely be some morning low clouds each day with the greatest
coverage across the Central Coast. Skies, otherwise, will be
mostly clear.

A good degree of mdl confusion creeps into the forecast later
Wednesday into Thursday as the mdls struggle with the handling of
some energy coming out of British Columbia. The sfc pattern is
also in question as there is wide assortment of possible values
ranging from 1mb onshore to 6.5 mb onshore. While the actual
outcome regarding how much warmer it will be and how quickly
things warm up is still uncertain, ensembles suggest a slight
warming trend Thursday and Friday. So confidence in at least some
warming is growing, with the details remaining in question. A
majority of the European ensemble members also increase PWATs to
over 1.0" as early as Thursday, so there is also potential for
increased mugginess once again. The good news is most members are
keeping PWATs below 1.5", much lower than the peak of the extreme
heat and humidity this past week.

No significant wind issues are expected, although there will be
the usual gusty southwesterly winds each afternoon across the
mountains and deserts and the typical near advisory level evening
gusts across the SW corner of SBA county.

&&

.AVIATION...12/0207Z.

At 0053Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2300 ft with a temperature of 27 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Moderate to high confidence in VFR conditions for KPRB with a
10-20% chance of brief LIFR CIGs 12/12Z-15Z).

Low confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY with a 20% chc of low
clouds 10Z-15Z. CIGs most likely IFR if they occur.

For remaining TAFs, low to moderate confidence. Timing of
CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 3 hours & flight minimums
by one category.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Arrival and clearing
of IFR to MVFR Cigs may be off +/- 2 hours. 20% chance of no low
CIGs. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Low confidence in the 00Z TAF. 20% of CIGs between
12Z-16Z, most likely IFR but MVFR possible.

&&

.MARINE...11/809 PM.

Conditions are expected to become increasingly hazardous across
the outer waters into the weekend. A Gale Watch (50-60% chc) has
been issued for PZZ676/673 Saturday evening into Monday morning.
Models indicate that the stronger winds may occur later in the
evening and overnight, with gales then possible through Monday
mid-morning.

The coastal Jet may develop across PZZ670 Saturday evening
causing winds to increase there as well, but confidence in winds
reaching Gale force is low at this time. Otherwise, widespread SCA
winds are expected across the outer waters through early next
week. Even as the likely gales subside Monday late morning, SCA
winds are likely across the outer waters through Tuesday morning.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are expected nearshore along
the Central Coast Saturday afternoon through Monday night. In the
Santa Barbara Channel, SCA winds are likely each afternoon to
evening in the western Channel through Saturday. Sunday afternoon
through Monday evening SCA winds are expected to persist through
the period.

Hazardous, steep seas are expected during this time, building to
over 10 feet at short periods over the outer waters and possibly
to 8 feet or above along the Central Coast. Peak waves are
expected Sunday into Monday. Dangerous choppy seas are also
expected in the SB Channel, 5-7 feet at short periods.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT Saturday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Saturday evening through Monday
      morning for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewis/KL
AVIATION...Ciliberti
MARINE...Black/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Lewis/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox