656
FXUS66 KLOX 222122
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
222 PM PDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.SYNOPSIS...22/201 PM.

Hotter than normal conditions will continue through at least
early next week, especially starting Thursday. The hot daytime
and warm night conditions will bring elevated risks for heat
illness. Thursday through Sunday will generally be the hottest of
the next seven days. Gusty north winds will affect some areas
through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...22/218 PM.

A huge area of high pressure, currently centered over north Texas
and covering most of the southern half of the United States, will
drive our weather well into next week. The core of the high will
shift towards the west through Saturday and eventually settle
over New Mexico and Arizona. Meanwhile, the mid-level flow will
become more northerly by tomorrow while low-level onshore flow
weakens. The building high pressure and shift in winds will drive
a significant warm up that will really kick in Thursday. High
temperatures of 97 to 107 will be common for most valleys and
lower mountains by Friday, with highs of 85 to 95 over inland
coastal areas. Being the hottest time of the year, most records
look safe, but we might see a valley record or two fall. While
beaches areas will only see highs in the 80s, the warmer than
normal water temperatures will keep things muggy and unpleasant.
Minimum temperatures will also be 5 to 10 degrees above normal
overall, except 10 to 15 degrees above normal for the mountains
and foothills. This means that the overnight relief that many
depend on to cool their homes and their bodies will be less than
usual. The one exception will be the Central Coast, where a
shallow marine layer should keep temperatures warm but very
moderated.

The suite of Heat Warnings and Advisories remain in play through
Monday, with an emphasis on Thursday through Sunday. Decided to
amplify the beaches heat message by having them all be under an
Advisory through Monday (except for the Central Coast). One could
justify some localized Warnings in the Advisory area for a day or
two, but will continue the long-duration Advisory to simplify the
message. The risk for heat illness is high, especially for
sensitive groups like the very young, the very old, those without
air conditioning, and those active outdoors.

There will be a little wind to deal with as well, mainly over
southern Santa Barbara County, the I-5 Corridor, and the western
Antelope Valley through Thursday or Friday Night. Expecting
northwesterly to north gusts of 30 to 50 mph in those areas. A
Wind Advisory remains in effect for tonight over southwest Santa
Barbara County where the winds will be the strongest of the bunch.
The winds weaken a touch Thursday night with a 30 percent chance
of a Wind Advisory.

Mountain thunderstorm chances are not zero but low. The best
window right now looks to be Friday and Saturday afternoons, but
even then the thunderstorm chances are no higher than 10 percent.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...22/221 PM.

The high pressure area will continue to dominate the southwest
United States through most of next week. Little change to the heat
expected from Saturday to Sunday, followed by a gradual and minor
decrease in temperatures each day through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1735Z.

At 1702Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3100 ft with a max temperature of 24 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, & KVNY.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of prevailing
groups may be off +/- 2 hours. 20% chance of LIFR/IFR CIGs at
KPRB & KLGB from 23/10Z-16Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Clearing of MVFR CIGs should
occur by 22/19Z. VFR conditions expected thereafter. 20% chance
of LIFR/IFR CIGs from 23/10Z-16Z. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions with no wind issues
expected.

&&

.MARINE...22/150 PM.

Widespread Small Craft Advisory (SCA) NW winds will develop
this afternoon and will likely continue through the weekend
across the Outer Waters. Seas will near 10 ft at times starting
early Thursday. GALE WARNINGS have been issued for PZZ673/676
starting this evening through tonight. Local gusts may reach 35 kt
across the southern portion of the Santa Barbara Channel this
evening. Another chance (30%) of GALE Force winds Thurs afternoon
& evening hours across the Outer Waters. SCA winds will reach
into the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and SB Channel
at times through the forecast period.

&&

.BEACHES...22/150 PM.

A long period, southern hemisphere swell will arrive later this
week and will add to the continuing swell from Hurricane Fausto.

As a result, Beach Hazard Statements for Los Angeles and Ventura
county coastlines remain in effect through the weekend. Refer to
CFWLOX & SRFLOX for more details.

The Eastern Pacific looks to remain active over the next couple
of weeks. This could result in additional southerly swells to
impact the coastline.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for
      zones 38-88-342>345-348-351>353-355>358-368>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory now in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for zones
      349-350. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6
      AM PDT Thursday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Sunday evening for
      zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT
      Monday for zones 354-362-366-367. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM
      PDT Monday for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 5 PM
      PDT Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
      Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RK
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
BEACHES...Black
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox