640
FXUS66 KLOX 141020
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
320 AM PDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...14/157 AM.

A gradual warm up is expected today and Thursday with lighter
onshore winds as high pressure builds over the area. A cooling
trend with more marine influence is expected Friday through the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...14/243 AM.

The marine layer is capped by a weak inversion and this along with
offshore trends has greatly reduced the extent of the marine layer
stratus. The most low clouds are across western SBA county with
some patchy stratus across the San Gabriel Vly. North flow has
brought some clouds to north slopes along the Kern County border.
Ample sunshine will combine the offshore trends and rising hgts to
bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming to most areas today. The SBA
county south cst will be the exception where weaker flow from the
north will bring about a couple degrees of cooling.

Another morning of only minimal low clouds on Thursday. The only
areas that will likely see low clouds are western SBA county and
the Long Beach area. Slightly stronger onshore flow will cool the
immediate coast but overall atmospheric warming will lead to a
few more degrees of warming elsewhere. Despite the warming most
max temps will end up 2 to 4 degrees blo normals.

Weak troffing passing over the state combined with an increase in
onshore flow will bring the marine layer roaring back on Friday.
Most of the csts and vlys will wake up to low clouds. In addition
to the low clouds the trof will bring enough mid and high level
clouds to create partly to mostly cloudy skies during the day. All
of the clouds, lower hgts and stronger onshore flow will bring 3
to 5 degrees of cooling to most areas. Max temps will be in the
60s across the csts and only the lower to mid 70s in the vlys.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...14/315 AM.

A cool for mid May inside slider moves through the state on
Saturday. Moderate to strong onshore flow develops to both the
east and south. The trof and the onshore flow will rapidly deepen
the marine layer and low clouds will xtnd beyond the vlys and into
the mtns slopes and passes. The rapid lift may produce areas of
drizzle as well. Clearing will be limited and it will be a mostly
cloudy day for most areas. It will be a windy day wind advisory
level gusts likely across the coasts and mtns and esp the
Antelope Vly. The clouds and lowering hgts will bring 3 to 6
locally 8 degrees of cooling to the area and max temps will not
escape the 60s. These max temps are 6 to 12 degrees blo normal.

Still not the best mdl agreement for Sunday. The upper low will
move to the SE but there is a question about how fast with the EC
faster/more progressive than the slower more westward GFS. There
should be offshore trends and decent northerly flow aloft which
should clear a good chunk of the low clouds away. There will be
better clearing as well. Max temps should respond positively and
jump 3 to 6 degrees (maybe a few less if the GFS verifies)

Better agreement for the Mon/Tue fcst with weak ridging moving in
and decent offshore trends developing. Marine layer stratus should
be greatly reduced or even eliminated. Max temps should jump 3 to
6 degrees Mon and 4 to 8 degrees Tue. Most coastal areas will be
in the 70s on Tue with the vlys seeing readings in the 80s. These
max temps are 3 to 6 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1019Z.

Around 0645Z, the marine layer depth was around 1300 feet deep.
The top of the inversion was near 1800 feet with a temperature
around 13 degrees Celsius.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast for Los Angeles County
terminals and terminals north of Point Conception, otherwise high
confidence exists in the current forecast. There is a moderate-
to-high chance of IFR to MVFR conditions through 16Z and again
after 08Z Thursday for Los Angeles County terminals and terminals
north of Point Conception.

KLAX...There is a 30 percent chance of MVFR conditions through
16Z and again after 08Z Thursday. Any easterly wind component
should less than 7 knots.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. No wind
impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.MARINE...14/320 AM.

Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. Higher
confidence exists in the wind forecast relative to seas.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, a high-to-likely
(40-60 percent) chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions
early this morning will increase to a likely-to-imminent (60-100
percent) chance by late this afternoon. SCA conditions will be
prevalent through late tonight, then drop off to a moderate-to-
high (30-50 percent) chance early Thursday morning. This pattern
will persist into at least Friday with higher chances in the
afternoon and evening hours and lower chances during the late
night and early morning hours. There is a likely (60-80 percent)
chance of SCA conditions and a moderate (30-40 percent) chance of
Gales over the weekend.

Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas will be at
marginal SCA levels this morning with a moderate-to-high (30-50
percent) chance of SCA conditions. The chances will increase to a
high-to-likely (50-70 percent) chance this afternoon and this
evening, highest across the western portion of Santa Barbara
Channel. Then, winds and seas should drop below SCA levels
between early Thursday and early Saturday. There is a moderate-
to-high (30-50 percent) chance of SCA level winds on Thursday
afternoon and evening. Over the weekend, there is a high-to-
likely (50-70 percent) chance of SCA conditions and a low
(20 percent) chance of Gales Saturday afternoon through late
Sunday night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Thursday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox