993
FXUS66 KLOX 212104
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
204 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.SYNOPSIS...21/1241 PM.

Minimal changes expected through the weekend with seasonably warm
temperatures. Patchy night and morning low clouds and fog will be
confined to coastal areas. Additional warming is possible early
next week as high pressure tries to build in from the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...21/103 PM.

Southern California continues to be in between an upper level low
over the Pac NW and a strong 598dam high over the 4 corners
region. Clockwise rotation around the high continues to usher in
moisture from the south, though that tap is expected be drying up
this weekend into early next week so chances for any additional
showers locally is under 10% and only for far eastern LA County.

Model guidance continues to indicate very little change in
temperatures through next Monday. Above normal by 4-8 degrees but
not quite high enough for widespread heat hazards. There will be
pockets of LA County that could reach moderate to locally major
heat risk this weekend, namely the western San Fernando Valley as
well as southeastern LA County between Compton and Norwalk, but
not widespread enough for an advisory.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...21/156 PM.

High pressure is expected to build back into California starting
next Tuesday while at the same time pressure gradients from the
north and east weaken. With high temperatures already on the verge
of advisories and warnings through early next week, the next
burst of heat Tuesday and beyond has at least a 40-60% chance
pushing that over the edge to at least heat advisory levels and
possibly into warning level, particularly inland areas. How
widespread the heat hazards are will be largely be determined by
the pressure gradients. If the gradients trend towards the 75th
percentile or higher, which roughly would be around -3mb LAX-DAG
and -4mb LAX-BFL, temperatures would on the higher side with
numerous excessive heat warnings likely. If gradients have less of
an offshore component per the latest GFS then temperatures will
still be hot but at least a few degrees cooler. The latter
scenario being the most likely outcome.

At this time not seeing any big subtropical push next week, though
there is minor peak in PW`s on Tuesday and early Wednesday at
around 1.2".

&&

.AVIATION...21/1930Z.

At 18Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet with an inversion
top at 3300 feet and 27 Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Saturday for
KPRB, KSBA, KVNY, KBUR, KPMD, KWJF. There is a 5-10% chance of
-TSRA at KPMD and KWJF today.

Chances for LIFR/IFR ceilings tonight at KSBP (80%) KSMX (100%)
KOXR (10%) KCMA (20%). Chances for IFR/MVFR ceilings tonight at
KSMO (10%) KLAX (20%) KLGB (20%).

KLAX...Other than a 20% chance of BKN008-012 from 10-16Z Saturday,
high confidence in VFR conditions through at least Saturday. High
confidence in any east winds staying under 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions with seasonal winds
through at least Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...21/120 PM.

High risk of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions continuing
over the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island
through Saturday night, lowering to moderate for Sunday and
Monday. There is a moderate risk for the nearshore Central Coast
waters each afternoon and evening through Saturday, lowering for
Sunday and Monday. Elsewhere, the risk for SCA is low, with
seasonal winds likely.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for
      zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...RK
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox