831
FXUS66 KLOX 122053
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
153 PM PDT Tue May 12 2026

UPDATED MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...12/1256 PM.

Several degrees of cooling are expected through Wednesday as an
upper low moves through northern California. Low clouds and fog
will move into the coastal valleys with clouds lingering at some
coastal areas through today. Gusty winds are expected times across
the mountains and deserts. Slight warming is expected Thursday
into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...12/1256 PM.

The marine layer has deepened significantly since yesterday,
accounting for nearly all of the cooling trends over this time
especially for coastal valleys. Low clouds will likely stick
around most of the day for many areas west of the mountains thanks
to strong onshore flow and strong inversion. Isolated mid level
clouds have started to develop over some interior mountains. This
is evidence of the weak moisture intrusion from the southeast that
will support about a 5 percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm
to interior mountains and valleys, especially northern Ventura
into northeast Santa Barbara Counties. Dry lightning fire starts
and gusty winds would be the greatest concern if a thunderstorm
were to form.

A weak trough passing overhead will boost the marine layer
another 1000 feet or so to 3000-4000 feet into Wednesday. Sending
the cooling trends experienced today further inland with
temperatures near normal for this time of year. The additional
deepening may support spotty drizzle especially into foothill to
lower mountain locals. One more day of slow to no clearing of low
clouds is likely Wednesday, especially into the coastal slopes as
a reverse clearing (clearing at the coast before the
valleys/foothills) day is possible.

Breezy northwest to southwest winds will is expected afternoon to
evening, possibly boosting to near advisory levels for areas prone
to northwest winds (southwest Santa Barbara County & I-5 corridor
in the mountains) Wednesday evening and again as early as Friday
afternoon.

Weak ridging building into the region will likely shrink the
marine layer closer to the coast and lead to warming trends
Thursday and Friday, but no where near the heat we saw just
yesterday.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...12/1256 PM.

Below normal confidence this weekend into early next week as a
sharp trough (for May) is poised to pass nearby. An inland track
(50 percent chance) would lead to near normal temperatures with
breezy winds nearing advisory levels for some interior areas such
as the mountains near the I-5 corridor and southwest Santa Barbara
County into Saturday or Sunday with the potential for offshore
winds with decent warming and drying trends into Monday. A close
pass (30 percent chance) would lead to gusty and probably advisory
northerly winds for the interior and mostly below normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...12/1751Z.

At 1725Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2100 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4600 ft with a temperature of 22 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Low to moderate confidence in remainder of TAFs. Timing of flight
category changes may be off by 3 hours and by one flight category.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR CIGs 015-025 expected
thru 13/21Z. Periodic IFR CIGs 008 may occur through 13/15Z.
50% chance CIGs persist throughout entire forecast period.
No significant east wind component.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR to MVFR CIGs likely to
persist through entire forecast period. 15% chance of LIFR CIGs
004 13/08Z-15Z. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...12/148 PM.

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels through Wednesday morning.

SCA conditions (winds and seas) are expected to develop across
the northern Outer Waters Wednesday afternoon, expanding in
coverage to include all Outer Waters by Wednesday night.

These hazardous conditions will persist into the weekend reaching
portions of inner waters (along the Central Coast and SB Channel)
at times.

GALE Force winds will be possible across the outer waters as
early as Thursday afternoon, with highest (30-50 percent) chances
on Saturday into Sunday.

Seas will continue to build into the weekend peaking 10-15 ft
across the outer waters.

(For this weekend)

The combination of high winds and seas could result in hazardous
surfing conditions and minor coastal flooding especially across
more unprotected west-facing beaches such as along the Ventura
coastline. Stay tuned for future updates.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for
      zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...MW/RS

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox