380
FXUS66 KLOX 010837
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
137 AM PDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...01/136 AM.

Stagnant pattern through Friday, with below normal temperatures,
patchy marine layer clouds, and moderate Sundowner winds. Several
potential scenarios for the Labor Day weekend, with anything from
benign conditions, tropical rain, or even hot offshore winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...01/130 AM.

Fairly stagnant and inconsequential weather is on tap for the next
few days as upper level troughing will keep the region cooler than
early September normals by around 5-10 degrees in most locations.
High temps will hardly change over the next several days due to
the fairly persistent pattern. While this is a welcomed trend for
many, the decreasing overnight temperatures and lowering humidity
(focused away from the ocean) might bring the most relief to
folks across Southwest California who have seen fairly relentless
heat and humidity for a majority of the summer.

Any rain or wind impacts driven by the upper level troughing will
stay well north of our area, so fairly benign weather is the main
story through the work week. The one tricky aspect of this
forecast is figuring out how the marine layer will behave,
especially south of Point Conception. It has been and will likely
continue to fill in across the Central Coast, expanding further
inland as the marine layer deepens above 2000 feet. However, down
south it has been struggling form, most likely due to the much
warmer than normal ocean temperatures. Patchy marine layer clouds
each night will be the most likely outcome. Otherwise skies should
be mostly clear much of this week.

As far as winds are concerned, Sundowner winds will continue each
night over southwest Santa Barbara County and flirt with an
Advisory each time. Tonight and tomorrow night are most likely to
reach advisory levels.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...31/606 PM.

Little change expected on Friday compared to the first half of the
week.

All eyes remain focused on the Labor Day holiday weekend period. A
Hurricane is likely to develop by Wednesday or Thursday from the
clump of clouds currently just off the Baja coast. Once it forms,
it will likely move to the northwest through Saturday and towards
southern California. The big question is where will it head after
Saturday. Some deterministic models, like the current GFS, keeps
the storm moving northward and right through southern California
by Monday or Tuesday. Others, like the deterministic ECMWF, show
the storm turning to the west and never even sniffing California.
These are just two of many projections, but they do represent the
two extreme scenarios between a major rain and wind event and
little to nothing. Peering into the ensemble solutions, they
suggest that the heavy rain scenario is the least likely outcome
(5-10% of the 100 projections have 2+ inches of rain), but there
are a fair number of solutions showing light to moderate rain
(mostly under 1 inch) which would likely have minimal impacts.
The completely dry scenario comprises 20-30% of the solutions.
Which means in terms of rain, the most likely outcome is for some
light to moderate rain impacting the holiday weekend. As far as
timing is concerned, there is a small chance of showers starting
as early as Saturday, with also a small potential for monsoonal
thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts. From Sunday into
Monday night, rain chances are somewhat higher.

The wind story is similar, with a low but non- zero chance of
strong east to northeast winds causing fire and downed tree
concerns. With all that said, this is definitely a period to
monitor with a range of outcomes on the table. Due to the rarity
of this storm, expecting there to be a lot of uncertainty even as
we get to the weekend, but hopefully some details will come more
into focus by mid-week once the storm actually form.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0538Z.

At 0406Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2400 feet with a temperature of 23 Celsius.

High confidence on VFR conditions through Tuesday at KWJF and KPMD.

High confidence in MVFR conds at KSBP/KSMX with a low chance for
brief IFR conds.

Moderate confidence in IFR to MVFR conds at KPRB/KLAX/KLGB/KSMO,
lowest cigs most likely at KPRB.

Low confidence for remaining sites. There is a 40% chance for VFR
conds to prevail at KOXR. There is a chance for IFR to MVFR conds
at KSBA (30%), KCMA (40%), KBUR (30%), and KVNY (30%). More
likely MVFR conds than IFR.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF with BKN012-018 cigs tonight,
then good confidence in VFR conds through at least 06Z/02. Then
return of cigs of similar height expected between 06Z-12Z/02. High
confidence in an east winds staying under 8 knots.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF overnight with a 30% chance of 1-3
hours of BKN012-018 cigs between 10Z and 17Z. High confidence in
TAF otherwise.

&&

.MARINE...01/131 AM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and short
period seas from Point Sal to San Nicolas Island through the
majority of the week, with increasing winds and choppier seas
expanding northward by as early as Wednesday afternoon, but more
likely Thursday, including nearshore along the Central Coast.

Northwest SCA winds are forecast to expand into a large portion
of the Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon and evening through
the work week starting today, with strongest winds across the
western portion. Localized NW wind gusts 20-25 kt may occur
through the Santa Monica Bay and San Pedro Channel during the
afternoon and evening hours today and Wednesday.

Expecting increasing southerly swell this weekend due to tropical
activity to the south. The details and timing are very much
dependent on the track of the soon to be formed tropical cyclone,
but confidence is moderate to high that the coastal waters will
see a larger than normal in southerly swell over Labor Day
Weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...01/131 AM.

There is growing confidence for significant impacts at the coast
this Labor Day weekend. While there remains a range of outcomes in
terms of the track the soon to be formed tropical cyclone takes,
SoCal is likely to see an increasing southerly swell, with the
south-southeast swell most likely pumping this weekend into
Tuesday, especially considering the swells from the current
Hurricane Karina hanging around. This most likely scenario would
result in high surf advisories for south facing beaches during a
busy holiday weekend (especially Sunday into Monday night) with
very strong rip currents. Additionally, evening high tides are
expected to be 6.5 to 6.8 feet by Sunday evening, and around 7
feet by Monday evening. As a result, there is an increasing
chance of at least minor coastal flooding of low-lying areas and
beach erosion around evening high tides. If peak surf happens to
coincide with times of high tide, there is the potential for
moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion which could require
coastal flood advisories. A few areas that could be especially
susceptible to south-southeasterly swell include Catalina Island
(including Avalon), Long Beach to Cabrillo Beach, Malibu and Point
Mugu. If the storm gets closer to the coast, those coastal
impacts will be amplified.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewis/RK/Gomberg
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis/Gomberg
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox