993
FXUS66 KLOX 250321
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
821 PM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.SYNOPSIS...24/715 PM.

Hotter than normal conditions will continue for the foreseeable
future, generally hottest through Sunday. Some cooling is expected
Monday through Wednesday, with heat increasing again Thursday into
the weekend. The hot daytime and warm night conditions will bring
elevated risks of heat-related illness. Gusty NW winds will affect
SW Santa Barbara County at times, with gusty onshore winds over
the interior.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...24/733 PM.

***UPDATE***

Hot conditions continue to affect the region, as today`s highs
ranged from 90s away from the coast up to 108 in the eastern
Antelope Valley. Coastal highs were mainly in the 70s to 80s.
A strong upper ridge remains centered over the Four Corners
region, expanding westward over Southern California. Much of the
area lies within widespread Heat Advisories - except for the
Central Coast - with an Extreme Heat Warning for the Antelope
Valley. These headlines remain in effect through Monday night.
Warm overnight lows, especially over the foothills and mountains,
will add to the heat impacts.

Gusty onshore winds are observed over the interior, with the
Antelope Valley and Foothills gusting 30 to 40 mph. Across SW
Santa Barbara County, Sundowner winds are in the same general
range, and all locations are expected to remain below Advisory
levels tonight. These winds will be common each late afternoon to
evening or overnight period through the short term.

Finally, fairly high confidence that marine layer clouds will
return to the Central Coast, extending inland to the Santa Ynez
Valley later tonight. The persistent marine layer in this area is
likely responsible for cooler daytime highs there. Similar high
confidence that the SBA South Coast will remain clear as northerly
winds continue to affect the Santa Ynez Range. Much lower
confidence further south, with minimal/short lived ceilings
possible for the Ventura Coast, and a slightly better chance for
the LA Coast.

***From Previous Discussion***

There is a 30% chance that Heat Advisories will be needed for the
interior Central Coast Sunday and Monday. Temperatures have been
a little cooler than forecast in this area the last few days, so
we will have to see how things play out today and tomorrow.
Onshore flow will continue to bring some afternoon relief at the
immediate coastal areas, but not much beyond this.

Expecting some marine layer cloud coverage to return to the
Central Coast each night and morning, with chances increasing
across the LA Coasts over the weekend. The extent of the marine
layer cloud coverage may make or break high temperature forecasts
for coastal and inland coastal areas, especially along the Central
Coast. As referenced earlier, the Central Coast has been a little
cooler than expected the last few days, mostly due to fairly
expansive marine layer cloud coverage in the morning slowing down
the warm up.

There remains a very low chance for afternoon showers or
thunderstorms over the weekend, around 5-10% chance with best
chances appearing to be on Sunday.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...24/1220 PM.

Warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the next
week, adding to this lengthy warm spell. As mentioned before, the
large area of high pressure will remain the dominant weather
feature through next week. The core of the high will shift a
little to the east Monday through Wednesday and bring a touch of
relief to the heat, but only by a few degrees. Coastal areas will
see the most noticeable drop as onshore pressure gradients
strengthen some and low clouds and fog will likely be more
expansive than it has been.

The majority of the ensemble solutions, especially with the EC,
show this relief being short-lived as the high pressure builds
back towards the west after Wednesday. Some projections show the
core of the upper level high moving directly over California by
Saturday, with 500 mb heights increasing to close to 600
decameters, which is about as strong as it gets. Because of this
synoptic setup, some ensemble projections (and the mean) favor
slightly warmer temperatures by the end of next week compared to
this current stretch of warmer than normal temperatures. While
onshore flow is still projected to be fairly persistent, some
ensemble members do show weakening onshore flow late next week
into the weekend. If this comes to fruition, coastal areas may
see the largest increase in temperatures next weekend compared to
this weekend.

The one saving grace is that the majority of projections also show
a sharp drying trend at the same time, with precipitable water
readings dropping from 1.5 inches today to under 1.0 inches by
Wednesday. This will certainly help with the muggy feeling
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...24/2338Z.

At 2203Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was 3600 ft with a max temperature of 30 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, KVNY, KPRB, KSBA.

Moderate confidence in remainder of TAFs.

Chances for LIFR/IFR: KSMX (80%), KSBP (60%).
Chances for IFR/low- end MVFR: KOXR/CMA (20% BRIEF around 12Z)
KSMO (50%), KLAX (60%), KLGB (60%).

KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF through 06Z. Arrival & clearing
times of CIGs 009 (+/- 300ft) may be off +/- 2 hours. There is
a 30-40% chance that CIGs do not arrive or remain brief. High
confidence in any east winds staying under 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...24/1224 PM.

High confidence in persistently strong NW winds from the Central
Coast to San Nicolas Island through at least Tuesday Night. Gusts
of 30-40 knots will be common each afternoon and night, bordering
between strong Small Craft Advisory (SCA) and low-end Gale
Warnings. These winds will also affect the western Santa Barbara
Channel each night, and may cover enough of the channel to need a
SCA. With these winds, widespread choppy or steep seas is likely.
In addition, patches of dense fog are possible anywhere through
Sunday or Monday, especially off the Central Coast.

&&

.BEACHES...24/1224 PM.

A long period, southern hemisphere swell will arrive early
Saturday and will add to the continuing swell from Hurricane
Fausto. This swell will result in an increased risk of dangerous
rip currents across the coastal beaches, as well as elevated surf
of 3-6 ft across the Los Angeles and Ventura County Beaches.
Therefore, Beach Hazard Statements are in effect through the
weekend for Los Angeles and Ventura County beaches and the Central
Coast beaches. Rip currents and elevated surf will be strongest
across south to southwest facing beaches and harbors such as Avila
Beach.

The Eastern Pacific looks to remain active with tropical systems
over the next couple of weeks. This could result in additional
southerly swells to impact the coastline.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for
      zones 38-88-342>345-348>358-362-366>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Sunday evening for
      zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for zone
      383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Saturday to 3 AM PDT
      Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewis/CC
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...RK/KL
BEACHES...Lund/Black
SYNOPSIS...RK/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox