764
FXUS66 KLOX 140349
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
849 PM PDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...13/125 PM.

The cooling trend will continue through Saturday and by the weekend
temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Night through
morning low clouds and fog will continue for coast and coastal
valleys through the period. A warming trend will begin Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...13/849 PM.

***UPDATE***

Temperatures cooled a touch today 2-5 degree on average as an
upper level trough approached. Highs still reached the 90s to low
100s over the interior, the 80s to 90s for the valleys, and 60s to
70s at the coasts. The trough continues to deepen Thursday,
leading to about 5 to 6 DAM of height falls from tonight to early
Friday. This continues the cooling trend, and should lead to more
marine layer clouds pushing further into the valleys. High temperatures
were dropped a few degrees Thursday over the coasts and valleys of
Ventura and LA County to align closer to today`s high temperatures.
Otherwise, the current forecast looks on track with generally
benign conditions aside from Sundowner winds ramping up tonight
and smoke from the Gifford Fire.

***From Previous Discussion***

A developing trough along the West coast will maintain a slow but
steady cooling trend through the weekend. Highs will drop 1-3
degrees each day and by Saturday will be 4-8 degrees below normal
area-wide. Marine layer stratus will push well into the coastal
valleys each night and clear to within a mile or two of the
beaches each day. Overall very little weather impacts locally
this week.

There is currently a little northerly flow below 850mb across
the western portion of the forecast area, causing the smoke from
the Gifford fire to drift over central and eastern Santa Barbara
County and possibly a little over western Ventura County. However,
that north flow will also create a little Sundowner condition
across the southwestern portion of Santa Barbara County this
evening with winds gusts to 30-45 mph at times. Models show
weakening gradients the rest of the week so not expecting any
additional nights of gusty winds there.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...13/156 PM.

Next week the trough is expected to weaken and allow a high
pressure ridge across the southwest to inch back towards
California. However, the latest ensemble solutions are suggesting
that this next warm spell will not be as hot as this most recent
warm up, but still likely reaching 100-104 across the western San
Fernando Valley, the Antelope Valley, and parts of interior SLO
County by around Wednesday of next week. Until then high
temperatures will remain mostly below normal in most areas with
continued night and morning low clouds across coast and coastal
valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...14/0344Z.

At 0129Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 5100 ft with a temperature of 26 C.

High confidence in VFR conditions at KPMD and KWJF with gusty
winds of 20 to 30 mph.

Lower confidence in TAF for KPRB due to winds. Winds should shift
to northerly tonight, but low confidence in timing.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. For all sites with cigs
fcst, arrival time may be off +/- 2 hours and min cig heights may
be off +/- 200 ft. There is a 30% chance for no cigs at KSBA
tonight.

Vis reduction due to FU from Gifford Fire is possible at times
for KSBP, KSMX, KSBA, & KPRB.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs may reach LIFR briefly.
Southeast winds likely, but high confidence in winds staying
under 8 knots.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance for cigs
to reach 400 to 500 feet. Arrival time maybe be off +/- 2 hours.

&&

.MARINE...13/148 PM.

High confidence in seasonally gusty NW winds across the waters
beyond 20 miles from shore between the Central Coast to San
Nicolas Island, with Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions common
each day through at least this week. Brief and very localized
gale force gusts to 35 knots from Point Conception to San Nicolas
Island may occur each evening, with tonight looking the most
likely. The nearshore Central Coast waters will flirt with SCA
winds each afternoon and evening. The western Santa Barbara
Channel will also see SCA conditions late each afternoon and
evening, but unsure if it will be widespread enough to warrant an
SCA for the entire zone. The winds tonight and tomorrow look
strongest and most widespread. Sundowner winds may also impact the
nearshore waters in Southwestern Santa Barbara County tonight into
the early morning hours. All areas will see choppy seas from
these winds in the late afternoon through late night hours.

In addition, night to morning dense fog may continue at times
through Thursday mainly off the Central Coast. Moderate confidence
in some improvement by Friday.

A long period south swell will continue to bring hazardous waves
nearshore and elevate currents near harbor entrances possibly
through Friday evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Friday evening for
      zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Phillips/MW
AVIATION...Phillips
MARINE...Kittell/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox