631
FXUS66 KLOX 011722
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1022 AM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...30/1100 PM.

Skies will be clear except for night through morning low clouds
across the coasts and some valleys through next weekend.
Afternoon high temperatures will be 3 to 6 degrees below normal
through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...01/1022 AM.

***UPDATE***

No forecast updated needed this morning. Slow to no clearing
possible for the Santa Barbara South Coast, especially western
portion nearest to an eddy. Most other coastal areas will clear
for at least for a few hours. A few afternoon cumulus cloud
buildups are possible for the interior mountains with no showers
expected.

***From Previous Discussion***

Today`s weather will be very similar if not exactly like
Monday`s. A similar upper level and sfc level will create a
similar marine layer stratus pattern. Low clouds will cover the
csts but will only cover a fairly small portion of the vlys. Max
temps will mirror Monday`s with highs in the upper 60s and lower
70s at the beaches, mid 70s to lower 80s across the rest of the
cstl sections, mid 80s to the lower 90s in the vlys and 90s across
the lower mtn elevations and far interior. These max temps are
generally 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.

A dry trof will move over the state on Wednesday. It will lift
the marine layer into vlys and likely only the Santa Clarita vly
will be spared from the low clouds. A 9 mb onshore push to the
east along with a 5 mb push to the north will make for a slow
clearing day and a no clearing day for many beaches. The lower
hgts from the trof plus the boost in marine layer and onshore flow
will all gang up and lower max temps by 3 to 6 degrees across most
of the board. Max temps will end up well below normal. Gusty west
winds will approach advisory levels across the western Antelope
Vly and foothills.

Not much change slated for Thursday - maybe a few degrees of
warming for the interior in the wake of the trof.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...30/1136 PM.

Not much to talk about for the Friday through Monday long term
forecast. There will be weak cyclonic flow aloft Fri to Sun, but
on Monday a 576 dam upper low will set up shop to the west of the
Bay Area, shifting the upper flow over Srn CA to the SW. At the
sfc there will be a strong onshore push in the afternoon to the
east and a moderate one to the north.

The night through morning low cloud pattern will persist through
the period with clear skies for the rest of the area. There will
be gusty but sub advisory level winds across the western Antelope
Vly and its foothills each afternoon. There will also be weak
Sundowners across the western half of the srn SBA county coast.

On Friday there will be some warming across the csts and vlys as
the onshore push to the north weakens. The interior will cool some
as a weak troff ushers in a little cooler air. General warming of
1 to 2 degrees each day is forecast both Sat and Sun. Some cooling
(esp for the Central Cst) is on tap for Monday as the upper low
approaches.

Ensemble based long range forecasts continue to show a
substantial shift in the weather towards the middle of next week
(July 8th or 9th). A very warm upper high is forecast to develop
and trigger the first heatwave of the summer. The mdls have also
been consistently hinting at the first monsoonal moisture push of
the season as well which would bring the threat of afternoon
convection to the area if it develops. Please stay tuned as we
monitor this developing situation over the upcoming days.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1151Z.

At 1114Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2600 feet with a temperature of 24 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KWJF and KPMD.

Good confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY with 5 to 10 percent chc
of IFR cigs through 16Z.

Pretty good confidence in remaining airfields through 02Z. Timing
of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 1 hours and cig hgt off
by +/- 100 ft. Moderate confidence after 02Z due to timing of
return of low clouds.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. SCT conds may arrive as early as
17Z. Low clouds this evening could arrive anytime between 03Z and
06Z and cigs could be as low as BKN008. No significant east wind
component is expected.
KBUR...Good confidence in TAF with 5 to 10 percent chc of BKN008
conds through 16Z. There is a 30 percent chc of BKN008 conds aft
02/11Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/921 AM.

For the outer waters southwest through northwest of the Channel
Islands, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are likely through
most of the week through teh weekend. There is a 50-70 percent
chance of SCA level northwest winds today, increasing to a 60-80
percent chance on Wednesday. Then, SCA conditions will likely
persist through the upcoming weekend. There is a low (10-20
percent) chance of GALES on Friday evening and again Saturday
afternoon and evening beyond 10 NM offshore of Central Coast and
south to San Nicolas Island. A moderate chance exists of lulls in
the wind tonight and Wednesday night, but winds will increase
again by the afternoon hours.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, winds and seas
will likely remain below SCA levels through Thursday afternoon,
then SCA level winds are likely each afternoon and evening through
the weekend. There is 30-40 percent chance of SCA level northwest
winds today, increasing to 40-50 percent chance on Wednesday, then
a 50-60 percent chance on Thursday. SCA conditions will likely
persist through the upcoming weekend, especially during the
afternoon and evening hours.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a moderate (30-50
percent) chance of SCA level winds each day through the weekend during
the afternoon and evening hours through the Santa Barbara
Channel, near Point Dume, and into the San Pedro Channel.

A shallow marine layer depth in place will continue to create
patchy dense fog that will affect the coastal waters, especially
north of Point Conception through this morning.

&&

.BEACHES...01/232 AM.

A longer period southerly swell with marginally high heights has a
moderate chance of producing strong rip currents between Thursday
and through the upcoming holiday weekend. A beach hazards
statement may be issued to highlight elevated surf conditions and
strong rip current activity in the surf zone, with most powerful
current expected for Independence Day and Saturdat. If planning
on heading to the beach over the holiday weekend, please check
with a lifeguard before entering the water. Always swim near an
occupied lifeguard tower.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM
      PDT Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Hall/Lund
BEACHES...Hall
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox