589
FXUS66 KLOX 031019
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
319 AM PDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...03/252 AM.

Skies will be mostly clear except for night through morning low
clouds and fog across coasts and lower valleys. Max temps will
remain slightly below normal through Tuesday but there will be
significant warming on Wed and Thu with potentially hazardous
heat levels on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...03/318 AM.

The persistent upper level pattern will continue through the short
term period (Tuesday) with the upper high to the ESE and the trof
to the NW. Hgts will wiggle around 590 to 592 dam. At the sfc both the
E/W and N/S gradients will follow the diurnal pressure curve. The
E/W grad will be weakly onshore in the morning and moderately
onshore in the afternoon. The N/S gradient is more interesting, it
will be weakly offshore in the morning and weakly onshore in the
afternoon. The offshore flow will peak Monday morning at around 2
mb.

Currently there is a 500 ft deep marine layer north of Pt
Conception. South of Pt Conception the marine layer is about 1000
ft deep due to a weak eddy. Low clouds will cover the csts (save
for the SBA south coast) and Santa Ynez/San Gabriel Vlys. The
shallower marine layer up north will produce some dense fog. The
onshore flow is not strong enough to prevent clearing and all
areas should be cloud free by noon. Max temps will be similar to
the past few days with readings near 70 at the beaches with mid
70s to mid 80s away from the nearshore area. The vlys will see max
temps in the mid 80s to mid 90s. These max temps are a few degrees
blo normal.

Late this afternoon through early evening a little meso high forms
across SLO and Kern counties. This will increase the local N/S
offshore gradients and produce advisory level northerly wind gusts
across the Santa Ynez range and the western coast of srn SBA
county. The I-5 corridor will also experience gusty winds just
under advisory (45 mph) levels.

No real changes expected for Monday. The northerly flow will cool
the interior some and the gusty winds will continue across the SW
portion of SBA county.

Slight hgt rises and a switch to westerly flow across the interior
will bring some warming to most areas on Tuesday. Still it will be
hard to distinguish any day to day changes.

Also of note, areas of smoke are expected to impact portions of
Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura Counties through at
least the rest of this weekend, in association with the Gifford
Fire.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...03/1202 AM.

A significant warming trend will begin Wednesday at the upper
strengthens and moves westward. Hgts will increase to between 594
and 595 dam. On Friday the trof to the NW reasserts itself and
hgts will fall to about 592 dam. Onshore flow will remain at the
sfc so most of the csts will be protected from the increase in
temps. The night through morning low clouds will continue and due
to the increasing strength of the marine inversion may struggle to
clear some beaches.

Look for 2 to 4 locally 5 degrees of warming away from the csts
each day Wed and Thu. The weakening upper high Friday will allow
for 1 to 2 degrees or cooling.

Thursday will be the warmest day with the vly temps rising to 95
to 105 with isolated 107 degree readings in the western San
Fernando Vly. Max temps across the lower mtn elevations and far
interior will range from 100 to 108 degrees. Most of these highs
are 8 to 12 degrees above normal. Since it is August the daily
records are quite high but there is a 30 percent chc that there
will be record heat. The beaches will stay in the 70s but the
inland coastal sections could see max temps in the mid 90s. Min
temps will mostly be 2 to 4 degrees above normal but areas right
at the top of the marine inversion (likely ~1000 ft) may see lows
in the lower to mid 70s. Evaluation of the need for heat hazards
will start early next week, but preparing now for very hot
weather next week is strongly encouraged.

On Saturday slightly lower hgts and increased onshore flow will
lead to at least 3 to 6 degrees of cooling.

&&

.AVIATION...03/0617Z.

At 0508Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3100 feet with a temperature of 26 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KWJF/KPMD.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KBUR/KVNY with a 30 percent chc of
LIFR conds 13Z-16Z.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMX/KSBP with a 30 percent chc of
1/4SM FG conds 10Z-15Z. Also VFR transition could be off by +/-
90 minutes.

Low confidence in the remainder of the TAFs with a 40 percent chc
of LIFR/IFR cigs at sites with no low clouds fcst and a 40 percent
chc of no low clouds at sites where they are fcst.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no low
clouds. If low clouds do arrive the timing could be off by 2
hours. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of
BKN004 conds 13Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...02/743 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Localized GALE force wind gusts are possible this
evening (Saturday) across northern portions of PZZ670.

High confidence in widespread Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds
through Monday, with GALE Force wind gusts likely Sunday afternoon
through the late night hours. Strongest across PZZ670. There is a
30% chance of GALE Force wind gusts across the waters south of
Point Conception Monday and Monday night.

Seas are expected to reach SCA criteria across much of the Outer
Waters from Sunday afternoon through late Monday night. High
confidence in SCA level winds through Wednesday, lingering chances
thereafter. Next weekend looks to be much quieter in regard to
seas and winds, but will continue to monitor for any changes.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. High confidence in SCA level
winds during the afternoon and evening hours through Tuesday.
There is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds on Wednesday and
Thursday, followed by likely benign conditions heading into next
weekend.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. SCA level winds are likely Sunday
and Monday during the late afternoon and evening hours across the
Santa Barbara Channel (strongest across western portion). Lower
chance on Tuesday. Otherwise and elsewhere, good confidence in
winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria through Friday.

Tropical Storm Gil, currently south of Cabo San Lucas, will
generate a ~12 second south swell of 2 to 4 feet tonight into
Monday.

Visibilities will likely lower through the weekend, with dense fog
possible, especially along the Central Coast.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory now in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM
      PDT Tuesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from 9 PM this evening to 5
      AM PDT Monday for zone 352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Monday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 1
      AM PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox