511
FXUS66 KLOX 250339
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
839 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...24/750 PM.

A slow cooling trend is expected through mid week, but
temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal for many areas
on Monday. Lingering monsoonal moisture will cause continued
humid conditions, along with possible showers and thunderstorms
over the mountains and desert in the afternoon to evening hours
through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...24/838 PM.

***UPDATE***

Temperatures today were overall similar to Saturday`s values, but
with most of the hottest values over 100 degrees shifted back
over the interior and away from the coasts. Still, highs trended
about 6 to 12 degrees above normal. Expecting more cooling as high
pressure loosens its grip on the region, and more marine layer
clouds return to the coasts. Some uncertainty in just how
widespread clouds will be for the coasts south of Point
Conception, but if they occur, will likely see a late arrival time
with an early burn off.

Aside from the heat, mid level monsoonal moisture is still in the
area, and daytime heating will likely trigger more high based
showers and thunderstorms from the Antelope Valley and San Gabriel
mountains to the Ventura County mountains, and as far west as
southern interior San Luis Obispo County Monday. Pwats will hover
around 1.1 to 1.3" Monday, falling to about 0.9 to 1" Tuesday,
meaning the threat for dry lightning will be ongoing during the
afternoon and evening hours each day. High resolution guidance
suggests the most intense activity will be focused on the Antelope
Valley on Monday, and Tuesday we could see stronger activity in
and around the Ventura County mountains to the Antelope Valley.
The current forecast looks generally on track, but may need to
expand the rain and thunderstorm chances Tuesday to cover more
western interior areas.

***From Previous Discussion***

Lingering monsoon moisture and a moderately unstable airmass has
triggered some storms across the mountains this afternoon.
The storms aren`t particularly strong but the steering flow is
very light, under 10mph, so the biggest concern through the rest
of the afternoon will be the potential for flooding, especially
near the foothills of the Antelope Valley, including portions of
Pearblossom Highway. Could also see similar activity across the
northern Ventura mountains bordering Kern County and perhaps
extreme northeastern Santa Barbara County. Moisture and stability
parameters continue to decrease the next couple of days but can`t
rule out an isolated storm or two, especially eastern LA County
mountains.

While temperatures cooled near the coast, it was another hot day
inland with Woodland Hills and the deserts at least 103 and near
90 in the downtown LA area. A slow cooling trend is expected for
the next several days as high pressure starts to retreat to the
east and gradients begin to trend onshore. Low clouds and fog have
returned to the Central Coast and expecting a similar return to
coastal areas south of Pt Conception over the next few days. By
Tuesday and Wednesday most areas will be at or slightly below
normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...24/209 PM.

After mid week, the weather pattern is expected to remain quite
docile as a majority of the ensemble solutions maintain at least a
weak upper level trough along the West coast through the Labor Day
weekend which will keep the desert southwest high pressure system
to the east. Temperatures are expected to remain fairly steady,
mostly within 3 degrees of normal area-wide. The upper level
pattern will keep monsoon moisture well to the east through the
period so little or no afternoon convection is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0202Z.

At 2329Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface
based inversion, with a top at 3200 feet and a temperature of 28
C.

For 00Z TAF package, high confidence in valley and desert TAFs
with VFR conditions expected through the period.

For coastal sites, moderate confidence in 00Z TAFs. Timing of
flight category changes for KSBP and KSMX could be +/- 2 hours of
current forecast. South of Point Conception, there is a 30% chance
of CIG/VSBY restrictions for KSBA. For KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX and
KLGB, there is a 30% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not
develop tonight.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 30-40% chance
that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop tonight. If the
restrictions do develop, timing of flight category changes could
be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. No significant easterly wind
component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...24/800 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
winds through tonight, especially for the area around and south
of Point Conception For Monday through Friday, there is a 40-60%
chance of SCA level winds, mainly around Point Conception during
the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Tonight through Friday, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For the western half of the Santa
Barbara Channel, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds
through Friday, mainly during the late afternoon and evening
hours. For the remainder of the southern Inner Waters, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through
Friday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 38-88-342>345-348-351>353-368>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 356>358. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Phillips/MW
AVIATION...Phillips
MARINE...RAT/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox