952
FXUS66 KLOX 181025
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
325 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.SYNOPSIS...17/832 PM.

Temperatures are expected to change little over the next few days,
and most areas will be near normal. Morning low clouds and fog
will return to many coastal areas each night to morning period
through early next week. A warming trend is expected by the middle
of next week as upper level high pressure builds into the area
while onshore gradients weaken.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...18/325 AM.

The 500 mb heights will remain fairly similar over the region
(around 589-592 dam) through Monday as a large/wide high pressure
system hangs out over the Utah/Colorado/Wyoming area. Meanwhile,
Tropical Storm Elida, currently about 1300 NM South of Point
Conception, is forecast to move northward, well off the coast to
the west, and rapidly weaken. Upper level flow will shift from the
S today to more SE on Sunday with Elida`s movements and slight
shifts in the aforementioned high pressure system.

Sunday afternoon into late Monday morning, some of the moisture
from Elida could reach the Central Coast, with the most likely
outcome resulting in an increase in mid to high clouds. However,
there is a 5-10 percent chance of a shower for the Central Coast
Sunday. At the same time, slight shifts in the high pressure
system to the NE, will help bring some monsoonal moisture from the
SE Sunday afternoon through Monday. This will result in an influx
of mid to high level clouds across the region, as well as a 5-10
percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm focused over Ventura
and L.A. County interior Mountains, mainly on Monday.

At the surface, little change in the pressure gradients will
result in similar marine layer coverage each night. The little
change in marine layer clouds, pressure gradients, and 500 mb
heights will mean little change in temperatures through the
weekend. Temperatures will be near normal, with highs in the 70s
to low 80s for the coast, mid 80s to mid 90s for the valleys and
lower mountains/foothills, and 90s to around 100 for the deserts.

As for winds, Sub-advisory SW winds 25 to 40 mph can be expected
each afternoon/evening across the Antelope Valley/adjacent
foothills. Localized terrain enhancement could result in a few
areas gusting to 45 mph (i.e Lake Palmdale).

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...18/236 AM.

The large western U.S upper level high pressure center is
forecast to drift South from Colorado on Monday to the area
around New Mexico and the northern Texas panhandle by Thursday.
Southwestern CA will continue to be on the western periphery of
this large upper level high, with 500 mb heights slowly
increasing to 592-594 dam during the extended period.

As a result, the flow aloft will mostly be from the SE, bringing
monsoon moisture into the region through much of the week.
Precipitable Water (PWATs) values are forecast to be 1.25 to 1.50
inches through much of the week for areas south of Point
Conception and through mid-week for north of Point Conception.
These PWATs are about 150 percent of normal for this time of year.
Although the deepest moisture and  is forecast to remain east of
L.A. County during the extended period, it does look like the best
chance of afternoon convection will come Wednesday and Thursday
over the mountains of at least Ventura and L.A. Counties. However,
right now chances remain around 10% for thunderstorms across the
mountains, and are too low to include in the official forecast at
this time. As we draw closer to early next week, we should have a
better idea of the chance and extent of afternoon convection for
the middle of next week.

Otherwise, it look like varying amounts of night and morning
coastal low clouds and fog will prevail during the extended
period, with a warming trend through the middle of next week.
Moderate to high heat risk may expand into Wednesday or Thursday
as pressure gradients weaken and maybe turn lightly offshore in
the mornings with the potential for 500 mb heights building to
594-596. There is a moderate (50-60 percent chance) that at least
Heat Advisories will be needed in some areas, including
potentially near the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...18/0522Z.

At 0457Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3400 ft with a max temperature of 24 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be off +/- 2.5 hours and flight minimums off by
one category.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing
times of CIGs near 012 (+/- 300ft) should be accurate within
+/- 2.5 hours of current forecast. There is a 30% chc east wind
component reaches 7-8 knots between 18/08Z-16Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 15% chance of IFR
CIGs from 18/12Z-18Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions with no wind
issues are expected.

&&

.MARINE...18/1247 AM.

Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) levels through Monday except for localized SCA level
northwest wind gusts across the Outer Waters more than 20 NM from
shore. Northwest winds will begin to strengthen Tuesday to SCA
levels by late Tuesday afternoon and last through late in the
week.

A series of moderate period southerly swells will move through
the waters late Sunday through much of next week which may impact
south facing harbors, including the Port San Luis area.

&&

.BEACHES...18/1208 AM.

Over the eastern Pacific, Tropical storm Elida is forecast to
move to the north and west well off the Baja coast. Another
tropical disturbance is expected to develop in the same area and
follow a slightly more westerly track along 20 N Latitude. Both
systems will produce moderate period southerly swells. High Surf
Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements have been issued across
Southwest California from Sunday evening through Tuesday night.

The secondary system on the heels of Elida and an incoming long
period southern hemisphere south swell arriving later next week
will contribute to continued and potentially more hazardous beach
conditions into the following weekend. Additional High Surf
Advisories and/or Beach Hazards Statements are likely next week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 5 PM Sunday to 11 PM PDT
      Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Sunday afternoon
      through Tuesday evening for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lund
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Lewis/CC/Lund
BEACHES...Lewis/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Lewis/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox