794
FXUS66 KLOX 111617
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
917 AM PDT Mon May 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...11/852 AM.

Temperatures away from the coast will warm into the 80s and 90s
today. 100 degree readings may occur locally in the warmest
valleys and Antelope Valley. Coastal low clouds will develop each
night, expanding into the valleys Tuesday as a cooling trend
begins.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...11/917 AM.

***UPDATE***

Everything weather-wise going along as planned for today. The
marine layer shrunk to 1000 feet and kept away from most valleys
except the Santa Ynez and the lower Ventura Valleys. Gradients
trended lower this morning so the ingredients are in place for a
warmer day away from the immediate coast. Forecast highs seem
reasonable and not going with any heat advisories despite
temperatures that are 15-20 degrees above normal.

Significant cooling expected across coast and especially the
coastal valleys Tuesday as gradients trend strongly onshore.
Should see low clouds moving into at least some of the valleys
with highs lowering by a good 10 degrees. Farther inland valleys
like interior SLO and the Antelope Valley will require one more
day for any significant cooling.

***From Previous Discussion***

Most areas will warm a few more degrees day making it warmest day
of the next 7. The coasts will see the least or even no warming as
the marine layer will be well entrenched with some beaches seeing
no clearing at all. The marine layer has been smooshed some by the
hgts aloft and this will keep more of the vlys clear this morning.
Look for mid 80s to mid 90s in the vlys and 90 to 100 degrees
across the lower mtn elevations and far interior. By contrast the
beaches will only have max temps in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Today`s 586 dam ridge will push east on Tuesday and hgts will fall
through the day to 582 dam. More importantly the onshore flow will
ratchet up as a large east Pac sfc high develops. There will
likely be 7 to 8 (possibly 9) mb of onshore flow Tuesday afternoon
both to the east and north. This will bring low clouds across the
csts and most of the vlys. Many beaches will see limited or no
clearing. Most areas will see 3 to 6 degrees of cooling, but the
LA/VTA vlys will have around 10 degrees.

A trof will move across the northern portion of the state on
Wednesday. This will lower hgts across Srn CA to 590 dam. Mdt to
strong onshore flow will continue as will the marine layer stratus
which again will struggle to clear the near shore areas. The
csts/vlys will cool another 1 to 3 degrees while the mtns and far
interior will see steep drop in temps of around 12 degrees. Most
max temps will end up 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.

The moderate to strong onshore pressure gradients will generate
gusty southwesterly winds across interior sections each afternoon
and evening. The gusts will be close to but likely just under
advisory levels. The strongest winds will occur across some of
the Antelope Valley foothills).

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...11/300 AM.

The upper low will depart the area on Thursday. Sfc high pressure
will build in from the north and north flow will set up with about
3 mb of of offshore flow developing from the north. There will
also be a substantial decrease in the onshore push to the east.
Look for a reduction in the amount of morning low clouds, esp
along south facing beaches. The coasts and vlys will warm as a
result but lingering cold air behind the departing trof will cool
the interior.

Building high pressure and continued offshore flow from the north
will greatly reduce or eliminate the low clouds on Friday. There
will be a decent bump up in temps of 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees
across the area.

Further warming Saturday with limited or no marine layer clouds
will bring max temps into the 70s across the csts and 80s in the
vlys or 3 to 6 degrees over normal.

Weak troffing will move into the area next Sunday. In addition
there will be an increase in the onshore flow to the east. Max
temps will likely fall a degree or 2 over most areas.

In addition the northerly gradients will likely bring advisory
level wind gusts to the western portion of the SBA south coast
late in the afternoons and evenings.

&&

.AVIATION...11/0902Z.

At 0837Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3600 feet with a temperature of 23 C.

High confidence in KWJF and KPMD TAFs.

Low to moderate confidence in remainder of TAFs. Timing of flight
category changes may be off by 2 hours and one flight category at
any point. There is a 40 percent chance that VFR conds prevail
for KBUR/KVNY. There is a 20% chance of VLIFR conditions at KPRB
in the 13Z-17Z time frame.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc of
4SM BR BKN004 conds 12Z-15Z. There is a 20 percent chc of BKN012
conds persisting through the afternoon. Any east wind component
will be AOB 6kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25 percent chc of
2SM BR OVC004 conds 13Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...11/306 AM.

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels
overnight through Tuesday.

Wednesday night through the weekend, winds and seas will start to
strengthen/build, with SCA winds across the outer waters starting
late Wednesday night and Seas reaching steep and choppy SCA
levels around Friday night. There is a 30-40% chance of SCA winds
across the inner waters, with the highest chances each afternoon
and evenings especially across the western portion of the Santa
Barbara Channel. GALE Force winds will be possible across the
outer waters as early as Thursday afternoon, with highest chances
on Saturday into Sunday.

Dense fog may become more widespread each night to morning through
Tuesday morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Lund/Munroe
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox