143
FXUS66 KLOX 162059
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
159 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...16/859 AM.

A few degrees of cooling are expected today with temperatures
returning to normal over the weekend. Morning low clouds and fog
will return to many coastal areas by Friday and each day through
early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...16/140 PM.

Another hot day with temperatures 7-15 degrees above normal.
However, onshore trends began today and the sea breeze has been
able move in earlier and stronger resulting in 2-5 degrees of
cooling area-wide today.

More significant cooling, roughly 5-10 degrees, expected Friday
as a trough develops over the Pac NW further increasing onshore
flow. Highs expected to be within a few degrees of normal in most
areas except the far interior areas where highs near 100 are still
expected for another day. And likely some increase in morning low
clouds and fog for coastal areas.

Temperatures over the the weekend are expected to be near or even
slightly below normal, though the remnants of TS Elida will be
moving north-northwest which likely will increase humidities as
PW`s increase back to near 1.50". With that in mind there is a
5-10% chance of a shower or thunderstorm by Sunday over the
mountains.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...16/155 PM.

Temperature trends remain pretty flat through Monday or Tuesday
then models indicate a slow increase in high pressure next week
with weakening onshore flow Wednesday through Friday which would
result in a warming trend. There is roughly a 50-70% chance of
highs in the lower 100s in the warmer valleys by Wednesday and
around a 20% chance of 105. Downtown has around a 30-40% chance
of reaching 90 by next Wednesday or Thursday while the deserts
have a 60%-80% chance of at least lower 100s.

There is another tropical storm behind Elida next week but for
now the upper level pattern favors a more westerly trajectory
which would result in fewer impacts locally.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1743Z.

At 1617Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2800 ft with a max temperature of 26 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD & KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining 18Z TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight minimums by one
category.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times
of CIGs near 009 (+/- 300 ft) should be accurate within +/- 2
hours of current forecast. There is a 50% chance east wind
component reaches 7-8 knots from 17/08Z-17Z.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...16/1242 PM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northwest winds across the Outer
Waters will continue through Friday and will linger locally into
the weekend. The coastal jet across PZZ670 is expected to ramp
up again this afternoon and evening which has warranted the
issuance of a GALE WARNING for this timeframe. Short-period seas
(nearing 10 ft this evening) are expected to continue through at
least Friday.

The elevated winds and seas will extend into the western Santa
Barbara Channel & especially nearshore waters along the Central
Coast this afternoon through late night.

&&

.BEACHES...16/1242 PM.

Tropical storm Elida is expected to strengthen to hurricane
status and move to the north and west. Another tropical
disturbance is expected to strengthen and generally follow the
wake of Elida. This activity will occur over the eastern Pacific
waters well off the coast of Baja California.

These southerly swells will propagating northward and will begin
affecting our south-facing beaches by Sunday. This activity will
likely persist through the week. Another peak could occur late
next week due to strong storms across the southern Hemisphere
adding to the mix - Potentially more significant hazardous
beach conditions.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 38-88-349>353-356>358-368>375-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening
      for zones
      87-341>345-347-348-354-355-362-366-367-376-377-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone
      645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until midnight PDT tonight for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
BEACHES...Black
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox