360
FXUS66 KLOX 231759 AAA
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
959 AM PST Sun Feb 23 2025

...updated aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...23/308 AM.

Warmer than normal conditions will continue through Monday. A widespread
warming trend will arrive Tuesday and continue through Thursday.
Much cooler conditions are expected Friday into next weekend with
a chance of rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...23/948 AM.

No significant changes were needed on this morning`s update.

Quite the nice day shaping up with a 584 dam ridge over the srn
portion of the state and weak offshore flow at the sfc. Very
little in the way of marine layer stratus - just a patch over
Vandenberg AFB. The rising hgts, continued offshore flow and
plenty of sunshine will bring 2 to 4 degrees of warming to most of
the area with 4 to 6 degrees forecast for the LA mtns and
Antelope Vly. Look for plenty of max temps in mid 70s to lower
80s.

The ridge breaks down slightly on Monday and onshore flow
develops to the east. Skies will remain mostly sunny but max temps
will drop 3 to 6 degrees across the csts/vlys (they will still be
4 to 8 degrees above normal). Westerly downsloping winds will
bring 2 to 4 degrees of warming to the Antelope vly where max
temps will end up a toasty 16 degrees over normal.

The ridge is flattened down by a storm passing over the PACNW.
The bigger news is a sfc high builds into the Central Vly and is
fcst to jack up the offshore N/S gradient to near 7 mb. Advisory
level winds are possible through the I-5 corridor and Santa
Clarita Vly. The north winds will bring 2 to 4 degrees of
downslope warming to the csts/vlys. The interior, however, will
cool 2 to 4 degrees as cold air advects in from north and
northeast. Most of the vlys will see max temps in the lower to mid
80s.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...23/327 AM.

Decent confidence in the xtnd fcst as the EC and GFS are in fair
agreement and the ensembles are not showing to much spread.

A high amplitude ridge builds over the west coast on Wednesday.
This ridge will combine with continued offshore flow and the
growing amount of daylight to produce the warmest day of the year.
Look for 5 to 10 degrees of warming with cst/vly max temps in the
80s and lower 90s everywhere exp the beaches where mid to upper
70s will be common. These max temps are 15 to 20 degrees above
normal. A few record highs are possible.

An upper low swings into the area Thursday and will push the ridge
to the east. Hgts will drop quickly and the offshore flow will
weaken considerably. The hgt falls and reduced offshore flow will
likely produce a hefty marine layer stratus pattern in the
morning. Otherwise, skies will be partly cloudy with mid and high
level clouds. Look for 4 to 8 degrees of cooling which while
noticeable will not bring max temps down to anywhere near normal.

The upper low will pass over the area Friday and Saturday.
Currently forecasts do not show much moisture with the system
although its over water trajectory bears watching. Both days will
be partly to mostly cloudy. Friday will see 10 to 15 degrees of
cooling with little change fcst on Saturday. Even with all the
cooling cst/vly max temps will end up a couple degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1758Z.

At 17Z at KLAX, there was a surface based inversion. The top of
the inversion was at 1900 feet with temp of 19 deg C.

Generally hi confidence in the 18Z TAFs with VFR conds expected
at nearly all the airfields thru the fcst period.

However, there is a 10%-20% chance of brief LIFR cigs/vsbys at
KLAX and KLGB about 10Z-15Z Mon, otherwise MVFR vsbys due to haze
is expected at that time.

KLAX...Generally hi confidence in the 18Z TAF. VFR conds are
expected for most the fcst period. However, there is a 10%-20%
chance of brief LIFR cigs/vsbys about 09Z-15Z Mon, otherwise MVFR
vsbys due to haze is expected at that time.

KBUR...High confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conds expected thru
the fcst period.

&&

.MARINE...23/820 AM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are expected for the Outer
and nearshore Waters along the Central Coast later this afternoon
and tonight. Otherwise, conds over the coastal waters will be
below SCA levels today through tonight.

Monday into Tuesday, SCA winds/seas are likely for portions of
the coastal waters, to include all the Outer Waters, the nearshore
waters off the Central Coast, and the western Santa Barbara
Channel (30% chance for the eastern Santa Barbara Channel). Late
Monday and Tuesday, there is also a 10-20% chance of GALE force
winds around Point Conception and Channel Islands and south to San
Nicolas Island. Seas are expected to be at SCA levels by Tuesday
for the Outer Waters and the nearshore waters along the Central
Coast.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PST this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PST Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/JMB
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...Schoenfeld/Sirard
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox