720
FXUS66 KLOX 270954
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
254 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.SYNOPSIS...26/1152 PM.

Hotter than normal conditions will continue for the foreseeable
future. Slight cooling is possible Monday through Thursday, with
heat increasing again Friday through Sunday. The hot and humid
conditions during the day and night will bring elevated risks of
heat-related illness.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...27/129 AM.

Pretty dull (but warm) weather on tap for the short term. The
upper level pattern will not change much over the next 72 hours
with a powerful 597 dam upper high centered over the TX and OK
panhandles. At the sfc there will be mdt-stg (strongest in the
late afternoon) onshore flow to the east. The N/S gradient will
vary from weak offshore in the morning to weak onshore in the
afternoon.

The morning low cloud pattern will not change much at all. The low
clouds will be likely across the LA csts and the western SBA cst.
There will also be a 30-40 percent chc of low clouds reaching the
VTA csts as well as the SLO cst.

There will be another round of gusty Sundowner winds across
southwest Santa Barbara County the winds look a little weaker than
last evenings and will likely come in just under advisory levels.

Today will be the last day of the current heat advisory as the
combination of 95 to 101 degree temperatures and higher than
normal humidity will continue the hazardous heat levels. There
will be a a degree or two of cooling for most areas Tuesday and
Wednesday as hgts fall a little. More importantly drier air will
sweep in from the NW (PWATs fall from 1.07 to .70) and this will
make the lower temps feel even better. That said the higher than
normal sea sfc temps will keep humidities a little above normal.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...27/252 AM.

On Thursday the upper high begins to migrate back to the west. It
will eventually sit atop of AZ. The high will also strengthen to
600 dam. Hgts over Srn CA will rise to 596 dam on Thursday and
then peak at 598 dam on Fri and Sat. 598 dam would match the
highest hgt recorded in July during the period 1999-2025. There
will not be much change in the sfc pressure and onshore flow will
continue through the period save for very weak offshore flow from
the north around sunrise.

1 to 2 degrees of warming Thursday will be followed by 3 to 6
locally 8 degrees on Friday. Most areas will see another 2 or 3
degrees of warming Saturday. Sunday`s temps will be similar to
Saturday`s. By Saturday the vlys max temps will reach 100 to 110
degrees while the lower mtn elevations and far interior sections
will see max temps from 105 to 112 degrees. Even the normal cool
beaches will be in the 80s. All max temps will be 10 to 15
degrees above early August normals.

Its hard to imagine a scenario where there will not be a plethora
of heat advisories/warnings in place for Friday and the weekend.
The chc for heat products is over 90 percent.

Also have to keep a close eye on rapidly strengthening Hurricane
Genevieve west of Mexico. While the projected path keeps it well
south and west of the border due to strong anticyclonic flow
aloft, it`s likely to create another surge of dangerous south
swells, perhaps as early as later this week.

&&

.AVIATION...27/0953Z.

At 0822Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was near 2400 ft with a temperature of 29 Celsius.

High confidence in TAFs for KBUR KVNY KPMD KWJF and KPRB.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KLGB, KLAX and KSMX where the
arrival and departure times of CIGs could be off by +/- 2 hours.

Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBA and KCMA with only a 15 percent
chc of IFR cigs 13Z-16Z.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSBP, KOXR and KSMO with a 30
percent chc of IFR/LIFR cig/vis 12Z-16Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs could arrive as late as
14Z and VFR conds could arrive as late as 1730Z. High confidence
in any east winds staying under 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...27/209 AM.

For the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in the current
forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are expected
most of the time through Thursday night. Periods of gales are
possible through much of the week. A GALE WARNING has been issued
for the two northern outer zones (PZZ670-PZZ673) from late this
afternoon through late tonight. After a lull Tuesday morning,
additional gales are possible Tuesday night. SCA level steep and
choppy seas are also expected due to the persistent, moderate to
strong winds.

For the inner waters north of Point Sal, generally high
confidence in the current forecast. SCA level wind gusts should be
prevalent much of the time through Wednesday evening followed by
conds dropping below SCA levels for Thursday and Thursday night.
Steep choppy seas are expected much of the time as well.

For the southern inner waters, moderate to high confidence in the
current forecast. The western Santa Barbara Channel will likely
see SCA level wind gusts at times mainly in the afternoon and
evening hours through Tuesday night. Otherwise and elsewhere,
conds will remain below SCA levels through Thursday night.

&&

.BEACHES...27/209 AM.

A long period (18-20 seconds) southern hemisphere swell will add
to the hurricane swell from west of Baja. The combined swells
will result in an increased risk of dangerous rip currents across
the coastal beaches, as well as elevated surf of 3-6 ft across the
Los Angeles and Ventura County Beaches. In addition there are
strong longshore currents, and powerful breaking waves due to the
long periods. Dangerous water conditions have been reported from
area beaches, with numerous rescues. The highest hazard is on
exposed south to southwest facing beaches.

A Beach Hazard Statement is now in effect through Wednesday
afternoon for Los Angeles and Ventura County beaches and the
Central Coast beaches.

The Eastern Pacific will remain active with Hurricane Genevieve
forecast to track from a location S of Baja to the northwest over
the next 5 days. This will result in additional southerly swells
impacting the coastline through the middle of next week. There
will be a combination of SSW Southern Hemi swell, south swell from
Fausto, and SSE swell from Genevieve starting Tuesday night or
Wednesdya. As a result, the Beach Hazards Statement has been
extended through Wednesday for south and southwest facing beaches.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 38-88-342>345-348>358-362-366>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon
      for zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
      zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this
      morning for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Tuesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Ciliberti
BEACHES...Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW/RK/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox