665
FXUS66 KLOX 220319
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
819 PM PDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...21/1229 PM.

Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue for most
coast and some valley locations through the week. Drizzle will be
possible across coasts and coastal foothills tonight into
Tuesday morning. Temperatures will continue to be below normal through
at least the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...21/819 PM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate marine layer
stratus filling in across the coastal plain with clear skies
elsewhere. Current sounding data indicates marine inversion
hovering around 2000 feet in depth.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, the only "issue" will
be the marine layer stratus. With deep inversion and good onshore
pressure gradients, stratus will push well inland overnight. Other
than the stratus, skies will remain clear through the overnight
hours. There may be some patchy drizzle towards Tuesday morning,
but will let the night shift look at that "possibility."

Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short
term. So other than some minor tweaks to the cloud coverage, no
updates are expected.

***From Previous Discussion***

A static southwest flow pattern will bring little day-to-day
change in the weather through Wednesday as a deep marine layer
more reminiscent of early June remains in with night to morning
low clouds remaining in place including over much of interior San
Luis Obispo County. Patchy fog or drizzle will be possible again
Tuesday morning with a smaller chance Wednesday morning focused
across eastern Los Angeles County.

Rising heights into Thursday will begin squashing the marine
layer, but it will still remain quite deep. This is especially the
case south of Point Conception where a potential eddy related to
strengthening Sundowner winds (for southwest Santa Barbara County)
may prop up the marine layer even in the face of an increasingly
heavy atmosphere. Winds will likely be near advisory level by
Thursday evening for southwest Santa Barbara County.

Below normal temperatures will continue, although slight warming
trends are anticipated for interior areas and higher elevations
Wednesday and Thursday.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...21/1229 PM.

High confidence in quiet weather through at least this upcoming
weekend and likely into a good part of next week. Additional
warming is likely Sunday into early next week, especially away
from the coast with near normal temperatures returning following
the prolonged period of cool weather. Night-to-morning low clouds
and fog will likely shrink to lower coastal valleys to the coast.
Advisory level Sundowner winds are possible each afternoon and
evening through Saturday for southwest Santa Barbara County.

A more significant warm up with heat related impacts is possible
towards the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...21/2326Z.

At 2215Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was around 4500 feet with a temperature of 19 C.

For 00Z TAFs, high confidence in VFR TAFs for KWJF and KPMD.

For coastal/valley sites, moderate confidence in 00Z TAFs. Timing
of return and dissipation of CIG/VSBY restrictions could be +/- 2
hours of current forecast. There could be some patchy drizzle
overnight as well.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. No significant
easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts.

&&

.MARINE...21/744 PM.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in the current forecast.
Higher confidence exists in the forecast for seas relative to
winds.

Tonight moderate to high confidence in SCA winds across all of the
outer waters, but with SCA conds ending nearshore north of Point
Sal. Beginning Tuesday, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are
likely each afternoon and evening across the outer waters near
and south of Point Conception (PZZ673-676). Can expect a lull in
winds during the late night to early morning hours each day,
possibly dropping below SCA levels. Low but increasing chances for
SCA winds towards the end of the work week across PZZ670.

Nearshore north of Point Sal (PZZ645) SCA winds will be possible
(40-50 percent chance) in the late afternoon to evening hours
Thursday and Friday.

Within the So Cal Bight, probabilities for SCA winds will be
greatest across western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel
(50-60% chance) - increasing towards end of the week. Elsewhere,
low to moderate chances for SCA winds.

Increasing winds and building seas are likely over the weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe/Thompson
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...Black/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...KL/RM

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox