127
FXUS66 KLOX 310226
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
726 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.SYNOPSIS...30/131 PM.

Cooler conditions are expected through at least Tuesday with some
areas of morning low clouds and fog. A very slow warming trend is
expected later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...30/725 PM.

***UPDATE***

The cooling trend was evident today as temps were generally around
3-6 degrees cooler compared to yesterday, with a few exceptions
over some interior areas and mountains as high increased a few
degrees here and there. Expecting a little more cooling the next
couple of days, bringing the region to around 5-10 degrees below
seasonal normals for most areas away from the immediate coasts.
It should also start feeling less humid for those away from the
immediate coasts, but the very warm ocean temps will keep things
feeling quite humid across coastal areas.

Marine layer stratus is poised to move into the Central Coast once
again tonight, but once again the marine layer south of Point
Conception is no where to be found. There is a slightly better
chance for low clouds to form over southern LA County late
tonight compared to recent nights, but confidence is quite low in
this outcome. Additionally, chances for showers on Tuesday
continue to decrease, thus the forecast no longer reflects any
rain chances.

***From Previous Discussion***

Cooler weather will continue through at least mid week as
troughing replaces the strong ridge along the West coast along
with moderate onshore flow. Humidities will be returning to normal
as well as PW`s drop way down to around 0.5". Highs will be more
inline with typical late summer conditions, if not slightly below
normal. May have some coastal night and morning low clouds and
fog but those should clear by late morning. Also some low grade
(sub-advisory level) Sundowner winds the next few evenings.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...30/127 PM.

Overall a very quiet 4-7 period ending next Saturday with
temperatures in most areas either near or slightly below normal.
Maybe a very minor (1-2 degree) warming trend Thu through Sat but
in general much improved from the last week.

Still some major concerns for next week with a fair amount of
ensemble and deterministic solutions indicating the potential for
a tropical system to move up the coast from Baja into southern
California. By next Sunday the average of all the ensemble member
PW`s is 1.5" with several individual members over 2". Still a lot
of time for adjustments to the track but certainly there is the
potential for heavy rain, strong south swells, and overall
tropical conditions by next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...31/0215Z.

Around 00Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 feet deep with a
weak inversion up to 3100 feet with a temperature of 25 degrees
C.

Fair confidence in KSBP and KSMX TAFs, although low confidence in
arrival times which may be 2-4 hours later than forecast. There is
 a 20% chance for VLIFR conds from 10Z-17Z Mon.

Moderate to low confidence in KSMO, KLAX, KOXR, and KLGB, due to
potential for MVFR conditions after 10Z. Cigs may be brief or
intermittent.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 09Z Mon, then moderate to
low confidence. There is a 40% chance of conds remaining VFR
through the period. Otherwise, BKN008-012 CIGs could arrive as
early as 10Z Mon. Good confidence in any east wind component
remaining below 7 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF with VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...30/116 PM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) northwest winds
(20-30 knots) and steep, choppy seas for the outer waters through
late tonight. These hazardous conditions will reach into the
nearshore waters along the Central Coast and into the Santa
Barbara Channel today, especially during the afternoon/evening
hours. Local wind gusts may approach 35 knots near Point
Conception through tonight. Conditions are expected to improve
Monday with only local SCA level wind gusts near Point Conception
Monday and Tuesday. Chances for more widespread SCA winds increase
Wednesday into the remainder of the week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday afternoon
      for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 645-650-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/BL
AVIATION...Phillips
MARINE...Lewis/KL
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox