403
FXUS66 KLOX 251047
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
347 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...24/421 PM.

Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue to be a
staple of the forecast for most coast and some valley locations
through Sunday. Persistent onshore flow will remain in place
through the weekend over the California coast and keep an onshore
flow regime across the area. Temperatures will continue to be on
the cool side of seasonal normals into early next week, then a
warming trend should start to develop as onshore flow weakens.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...25/339 AM.

Overall, 00Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short
term period. At upper levels, the area will be influenced by a low
over Central California, but for Saturday/Sunday high pressure
building over the central States will exert more influence. Near
the surface, moderate onshore gradients will persist to the east
with weakening northerly offshore gradients.

Forecast-wise, the rather benign weather will continue across the
area with stratus coverage the main forecast challenge. Stratus
struggling a bit to redevelop in some areas early this morning,
but should become more widespread by sunrise. For tonight and
Saturday, H5 heights lower a bit which will allow the inversion to
deepen a bit and stratus should push a bit further inland. By
Saturday night/Sunday, H5 heights start to increase which will
reduce the depth and coverage of the marine layer stratus. Other
than stratus, skies should remain mostly clear through the period.

With respect to winds, the northerly offshore gradients will
persist through Sunday, but gradually weakening from one night to
the next. So, there will continue to be Sundowner winds across the
western half of the Santa Ynez range, but winds will gradually
decrease in strength. So, near advisory-level Sundowners will be
likely tonight, but should not be too much of an issue Saturday
night.

As for temperatures, expect minor day-to-day fluctuations. For
today and Saturday, will expect a cooling trend of a couple
degrees for most areas with continued marine influence and lower
H5 heights. However on Sunday, with less extensive marine layer
and some increase in H5 heights, most areas should warm up a few
degrees.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...25/346 AM.

For the extended, 00Z models continue to exhibit good synoptic
agreement. At upper levels, high pressure will shift a bit
eastward near the 4 Corners area Monday/Tuesday before retreating
back east a bit on Wednesday/Thursday. Near the surface, moderate
onshore gradients will continue to the east with weak northerly
offshore gradients.

Forecast-wise, Monday and Tuesday will be nicest days of the week
with limited marine layer and high temperatures hovering around
seasonal normals. Winds do not look to be an issue for Monday and
Tuesday, with both the onshore winds in the afternoon and any
Sundowners remaining below advisory levels.

For Wednesday and Thursday, H5 heights lower a bit. This will
allow for a couple degrees of cooling in many areas with a bit of
an increase in stratus/fog during the night and morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0942Z.

At 09Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was 2000 feet with a temperature of 19 Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KWJF and KPMD.

High confidence in IFR/MVFR ceilings continue at airports that
have them already through at least 16Z and possibly through 18Z.
Low confidence on presence and timing at the other airports, as
clouds will likely be patchy and not uniform.

KLAX...60% chance of a few hours of BKN008-015 11-17Z. Low
confidence on exact timing. Southeast winds likely 12-16Z, high
confidence in speed staying under 8 knots. West winds likely
stronger than usual 20-02Z.

KBUR...30% chance of 1 to 3 hours of BKN006-012 12-16Z. Low
confidence on exact timing.

&&

.MARINE...25/327 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Saturday, high confidence in Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds across PZZ673/676 and a 30% chance of
SCA level winds across PZZ670. For Sunday through Tuesday, high
confidence in SCA level winds for PZZ673/676 with a 50% chance of
SCA level winds across PZZ670.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in
current forecast. Today through Tuesday, there is a 30-50% chance
of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence
in SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara
Channel in the late afternoon and evening hours with a 20% chance
of SCA level wind elsewhere across the Southern Inner Waters. For
Monday through Tuesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds
across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel during the
late afternoon and evening hours with high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere across the southern
Inner Waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PDT Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson
AVIATION...Kittell
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Hall/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox