438
FXUS66 KLOX 110007
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
507 PM PDT Wed Sep 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...10/124 PM.

A period of cooler, well below normal temperatures will last at
least through the weekend. Morning marine layer clouds will
expand across coastal areas and many valleys with morning drizzle
possible through Friday, followed by a gradual warming trend for
the weekend and continuing into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...10/156 PM.

Daily high temperatures more than a few miles from the coast
continue to drop at a steady rate as an unusually cold upper low
remains remains over northern California. On the flip side of
that, ocean temperatures locally have been running 2-4 degrees
warmer than normal, which has limited the amount of cooling for
areas near the beaches as well as minimized the amount of stratus
there. With the persistent strong winds over the coastal waters
the last few days it`s likely some upwelling will occur soon that
will bring ocean temps down. But for at least another day or two
while the upper low is still around the spread of temperatures
between the coast and inland areas, which this time of year can be
as much as 30-40 degrees, will only be 5-10 degrees.

The marine layer this morning was about 4000 feet deep and the
expectation is that it will remain somewhere in the 3000-4000
foot range through at least Friday. As mentioned, the stratus
coverage has not been uniform but or very predictable but LA
County and the Central Coast are the areas that will most likely
see the most cloudiness during the night and morning hours, with
some upslope areas staying cloudy well into the afternoon.

Gusty north winds will continue across the far western portion of
southern Santa Barbara County during the late afternoon and
overnight hours. Winds tonight will probably be below advisory
levels but high res models indicate an increase over the next
couple night.

The upper low is expected to start shifting east later Friday with
a brief pop up ridge developing over the weekend. This will bring
a slow warming trend to interior areas but still at least a few
degrees below normal. Closer to the coast temperatures will either
be little changed or slightly cooler if upwelling results in a
significant drop in ocean temps.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...10/214 PM.

Most of the ensembles show a general slow warming trend towards
normal temperatures going into next week, but with some brief
interruptions in the form of weak troughs coming through. The
latest GFS actuary as another unusually cold upper low over far
northern California early next week but this does not appear to be
the most likely outcome. So while there is still some uncertainty
in the forecast, the trend is towards warming back to at least
near normal temperatures by the middle of next week with at least
a 50% chance of above normal temperatures.

Will also need to closely monitor the monsoon pattern as at least
30% of the ensembles show PW`s rising to around 1.5" by next
Wednesday. This corresponds to the next tropical wave moving west
off the coast of northern Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...11/0006Z.

At 2335Z at KLAX, the marine layer depth was 2000 ft, with a weak
inversion up to 3000 ft with a maximum temperature of 17 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs.

Low confidence in coastal and valley terminals. IFR-MVFR cigs are
likely across the area tonight, however arrival time may be off
by up to 3 hours, and cigs may be off by one category at times.
Any cigs that develop may scatter and reform through the period.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF, BKN010-BKN025 cigs are likely to
form overnight, as early as 06Z and as late as 12Z. Any cigs that
do develop may scatter and reform. Any east wind component should
remain below 8 kts.
KBUR...Low confidence in TAF, BKN010-BKN025 cigs are likely to
form overnight, but timing may be off by up to 3 hours from
forecast time. Any cigs that do develop may scatter and reform.

&&

.MARINE...10/130 PM.

Across the outer waters south of Point Sal, Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) northwest winds are expected through at least Sunday, with
brief lulls possible during the morning and early afternoon
hours. North of Point Sal (including the nearshore waters), there
is a 30 percent chance of SCA winds this evening, increasing to a
60 percent chance Thursday afternoon/evening, and a 80 percent
chance Friday through the weekend. Seas will peak at around 6 to 8
feet Thursday through the weekend.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, SCA level west
winds are likely this afternoon/evening and again Thursday,
across the Santa Barbara Channel, near Point Dume, and west of
Catalina Island. Wind driven, short period, choppy seas are likely
during the afternoon/evening hours, with heights peaking tonight
at around 4 to 6 feet. Friday through the weekend, risk of SCA
winds will trend downwards each day. SCA winds will be most likely
across the Santa Barbara Channel, where a 50 percent chance on
Friday will fall to a 30 percent chance by Sunday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT
      Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW/Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox