272
FXUS66 KLOX 130609
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1009 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

Updated Aviation Discussion

.SYNOPSIS...12/507 PM.

A large storm system will move into the Central Coast Thursday
afternoon, arriving Thursday night into Friday farther south. The
storm will generate periods of moderate to heavy rain Thursday
through Saturday, and possibly into early next week. Quite a bit
of uncertainty in the progression of the storm exists, however,
flooding of roadways and burn scars is possible, especially Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...12/817 PM.

***UPDATE***

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAJOR
IMPACTS MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A large upper trough and associated cold front are located
offshore from the West Coast, forecast to move onshore over
northern CA late this evening, and over NW San Luis Obispo County
late tonight or early Thursday morning. Conditions are quiet
preceding this storm, with the only weather of note being some
gusty south winds over the mountains and interior sections. Winds
will increase further over much of San Luis and Santa Barbara
Counties, and a Wind Advisory is in effect from 8 AM to 6 PM
Thursday with south wind gusts up to 45 mph expected. Otherwise,
look for some patchy stratus clouds for the coastal areas of LA
and Ventura Counties, with high clouds increasing aloft tonight
and Thursday.

Mainly light rain is expected for NW San Luis County through
Thursday morning, then increasing along the Central Coast through
the afternoon. The front and associated rain will move further
south and east over the area Thursday night and Friday.

***From Previous Discussion***

A large storm system has moved into the eastern Pacific and this
will be the primary weather concern for the next several days.
There remains a lot of uncertainty with how this will play out
because the low is expected to cut off and once that happens the
predictability of the storm decreases dramatically. Based on the
model projections today, the upper low is expected to move into a
position that will generate widespread 2-4 inches of rain,
starting Thursday afternoon along the Central Coast, then Friday
and Saturday elsewhere, highest south of Pt Conception and
especially in upslope areas. Could even see some amounts in the
5-6 inch range in the foothills and mountains. Hourly rates of a
half inch would be common in this scenario with isolated rates up
to an inch. Thunderstorms are possible as well, best chances from
Santa Barbara north but can`t rule out a storm or two down south
as well.

With this in mind, residents, especially those in vulnerable
areas, should start taking precautions immediately to prepare for
the storm and protect their interests. This scenario would
potentially create many significant impacts area-wide, including
possible debris flows in the burn areas, significant ponding of
roads and highways, mudslides through the canyons, fallen trees,
etc.

However, there are some solutions that place the upper low in a
much less favorable location that results in quite a bit less
rain. This is a less likely scenario than the one above but still
possible. By Thursday there should be more clarity on the track
of the low and at that point consideration will be given to any
possible Flood watches.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...12/212 PM.

Most of the latest model solutions indicate little or no rain
Sunday, especially after dawn, but small rain chances linger due
to the cutoff low and the uncertainties associated with that.

If the upper low moves as models are indicating the storm door
will be open for another upper low to come through on Monday,
creating another chance of rain, though all indications now are
that this next system would be quite weak with any rain totals
under a half inch. Then dry weather the rest of the week with no
indications of any Santa Ana wind events or additional storms.

&&

.AVIATION...13/0608Z.

At 0503Z, there was a surface inversion. The top of the inversion
was near 2100 feet with a temperature around 20 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in TAFs for KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KVNY. 20% chance
for IFR to MVFR conds at KBUR/KVNY through 18Z. There is a 10%
chance for -SHRA after 03Z Fri.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for remaining terminals. 30% chance
for IFR-MVFR cigs at all coastal sites through at least 18Z
(without rain). Onset of any rain may be off +/- 4 hours, but
confidence in rain occuring through the period is high for KSBA
north. For sites south of Point Conception, rain may be delayed
until after 06Z Fri. When rain occurs, there will likely be
bursts of +RA with IFR vsbys at all sites. Otherwise, MVFR cigs
and vsbys are likely with any rain.

There is a 10-20% chance for TSTMs from 22Z-12Z for KSBA north.
Any TSTM can produce lightning, abrupt and sudden wind shifts, and
brief, heavy downpours.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance for
005-015 CIGs through at least 18Z, but confidence in potential
cig height is very low, and there is a very low chance for
surface fog to form since recent soundings show no marine layer
depth. Onset of rain may be off +/- 4 hours. Winds are expected to
become south to southeast after 03Z Fri. High confidence in east
wind component of at least 8 kts through at least 21Z Fri once
winds shift SSE.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. 20% chance for IFR to MVFR conds at
times through 18Z. There is a 10% chance for -SHRA after 03Z Fri.

&&

.MARINE...12/913 PM.

High confidence in the current forecast for impacts. Moderate
confidence in the current forecast for timing. A storm system
will bring gusty winds, steep short period seas, and a slight
chance of thunderstorms across the entire waters through at least
Saturday morning. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable
of producing frequent lightning, gusty and erratic winds, locally
rough seas and even waterspouts. These will be dangerous
conditions for boaters, especially for the coastal waters along
the Central Coast to the western Channel Islands with gale force
winds, steep choppy waves, and seas in excess of 10 feet. Boaters
are advised to remain in safe harbor.

Expecting Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions to become more
widespread for the northern coastal waters tonight into Thursday
morning from northwest to southeast. There is a 50-90 percent
chance for Gale Force winds for the waters west through northwest
of Channel Islands from late tonight through Thursday afternoon or
evening. Steep short period seas will build to hazardous levels
throughout the day on Thursday, then likely decrease to below 10
feet after Saturday morning.

Inside the California bight, winds and seas will remain below SCA
levels through at least early Thursday morning, then winds will
begin to increase through Thursday night. SCA level south-
southeast winds (20-30 knots) will be common through at least
early Friday morning, but there is a high chance that SCA
conditions (winds and seas) may linger into Friday evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 8 AM to 6 PM PST Thursday for
      zones 340>348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 2 AM Friday to 10 AM PST
      Saturday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 AM PST Thursday for
      zones 645-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 8 AM to 4 PM PST Thursday for
      zones 645-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 4 PM Thursday to 4 AM PST
      Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PST Thursday for
      zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Thursday for
      zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST
      Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Phillips/Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox