069
FXUS66 KLOX 260558
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1058 PM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026

***Updated Aviation and Synopsis Sections***

.SYNOPSIS...25/1057 PM.

Hotter than normal conditions will continue for the foreseeable
future, generally hottest through Sunday. Slightly cooler Monday
through Thursday, with heat increasing again Friday and Saturday.
The hot daytime and warm night conditions will bring elevated
risks of heat-related illness.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...25/818 PM.

Overall, latest models in good synoptic agreement through the
short term period. At upper levels, high pressure centered near
the 4 Corners will slowly wobble eastward through the period. At
the surface, moderate onshore flow will continue to the east with
weak to moderate northwesterly flow at times.

Forecast-wise, main issue in the short term will continue to be
the heat. Highs today topped out in the mid 90s to 104 across the
valleys and interior sections. Given the synoptic pattern, will
expect H5 heights and thicknesses to slowly decrease through
Tuesday. So, Sunday will likely be the warmest day with a bit of
cooling for most areas Monday and Tuesday. With warm overnight low
temperatures, conditions will remain rather uncomfortable. Heat
Risk grids indicate moderate to high heat risk will continue
through Monday. So, current suite of HEAT ADVISORIES, as well as
the EXTREME HEAT WARNING for the Antelope Valley, are looking good
through Monday evening.

Secondary concern for the short term will be winds, specifically
Sundowner winds across southern Santa Barbara county. Based on
high resolution data, northerly offshore pressure gradients peak
Sunday evening and again Monday evening (SBA-SMX gradients
forecast to be -3.7 mb). So, there will be some gusty northerly
winds across the Santa Ynez Range, especially the western half,
and Wind Advisories may be needed, beginning tomorrow.

Tertiary concern, and a minor one at that, will be some influx of
mid-level moisture on Sunday. At this time, the convective threat
does not look too scary. However, there will be a 5-10% chance of
thunderstorms over the LA and Ventura county mountains Sunday
afternoon. If any thunderstorms do form, there will be the threat
of dry lightning.

Given the hot temperatures, as well as low surface humidity and
gusty winds, there will be elevated to potentially brief critical
fire weather conditions across interior sections through the
period. Any grass fires will likely spread very quickly.
Additionally, mixing heights will be quite high. So, there will be
the potential for some significant, plume-dominated, fire behavior
if any fires ignite.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...25/117 PM.

The large area of high pressure will continue to impact the
region through the long term. The center of the high pressure will
move slightly east Tuesday through Wednesday, bringing some
relief from the heat, but only by a few degrees. Coastal areas
will see the most noticeable drop in temperatures as onshore
gradients strengthen, allowing low clouds and fog to expand some.
Additionally, PWATs will finally drop below 1 inch by Tuesday
afternoon, meaning it will be/feel less humid than it has been
these past few weeks.

The majority of the ensemble solutions show the ridge of high
pressure pushing back to the west around Friday or Saturday of
next week. This will likely push temperatures back up a few
degrees, but the warming may be mainly focused over the mountains
and interior valleys as the onshore flow changes little.
Thankfully, PWATs are not forecast to increase drastically like
they have over the last week or two of warm ups the region has had,
which means the air will feel drier than it has.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0556Z.

At 05Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was near 4000 ft with a temperature of 27 Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Sunday at KBUR
KVNY KPMD KWJF. Chances for LIFR/IFR conditions at KPRB (10%)
KSBP (20%) KSMX (50%) KSBA (20%) KOXR (40%) KCMA (40%) KSMO (50%)
KLAX (60%) KLGB (80%). Winds will be similar to last 24 hours.

KLAX...60% chance of BKN008-012 08-16Z. High confidence in any
east winds staying under 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR through at least Sunday with
typical winds.

&&

.MARINE...25/846 PM.

For the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in the current
forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds can be expected
most of the time through Thursday night. Local gale force gusts
will be possible tonight, with periods of gales possible through
the week. SCA level steep and choppy seas are also expected due to
the consistent, moderate to strong winds.

For the inner waters north of Point Sal, generally high
confidence in the current forecast. SCA level wind gusts should
be prevalent much of the time through Wednesday evening followed
by conds dropping below SCA levels for Thursday and Thursday
night. Steep choppy seas are expected much of the time as well.

For the southern inner waters, moderate to high confidence in the
current forecast. The western Santa Barbara Channel will likely
see SCA level wind gusts at times mainly in the afternoon and
evening hours through Tuesday night. Otherwise and elsewhere,
conds will remain below SCA levels through Thursday night.

&&

.BEACHES...25/847 PM.

A long period (20-22 seconds) southern hemisphere swell will add
to the continuing swell from Hurricane Fausto. This swell will
result in an increased risk of dangerous rip currents across the
coastal beaches, as well as elevated surf of 3-6 ft across the Los
Angeles and Ventura County Beaches. In addition there are strong
longshore currents, and powerful breaking waves due to the very
long periods. Dangerous conditions have been reported from area
beaches, with the highest hazard on exposed south to southwest
facing beaches.

A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect at least through the
weekend for Los Angeles and Ventura County beaches and the Central
Coast beaches.

The Eastern Pacific will remain active with Hurricane Genevieve
forecast to track from a location SW of mainland Mexico NWWD to a
point well west of southern Baja over the next 5 days. This will
result in additional southerly swells to impact the coastline
through the middle of next week. As a result, the Beach Hazards
Statement has been extended through Wednesday for south and
southwest facing beaches.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for
      zones 38-88-342>345-348>358-362-366>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon
      for zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for zone
      383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT Sunday for zone
      650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson/Lund/RK
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...Sirard/Ciliberti
BEACHES...Sirard/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox