863
FXUS66 KLOX 040555
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1055 PM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...03/810 PM.

Dry weather is expected starting Friday and lasting through next
week. A strong warming trend will begin Friday and will continue
through late next week with only a one day break on Monday. Well
above normal temperatures are very likely next Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs in the 90s expected across the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...03/803 PM.

***UPDATE***

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved across the area this
afternoon into the early evening hours, with the most significant
activity from southeast Santa Barbara County over the Ventura
mountains into Central LA County. These storms produced brief
heavy downpours, hail and strong winds. Rainfall was somewhat
scattered over the aforementioned areas, with amounts anywhere
from a few hundredths up to 0.40 inch. The storms subsided after
around 600 pm this evening. For the overnight period expect
clearing skies and diminishing winds.

For Friday, skies will remain mostly clear through the day.
Shower chances for Friday afternoon were significantly reduced in
today`s afternoon forecast package as the models are now pushing
the upper low and associated instability southeast of the area.
Temperatures will jump up 5 to 10 degrees tomorrow compared to
today, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s most areas except
for lower 60s near the coast.

***From Previous Discussion***

Shower chances tomorrow appear to be remote at best as models now
are showing the upper low and the instability moving too far south
and east. So for now the forecast Friday through Sunday is for
dry conditions with a warming trend as high pressure builds in
from the west. Possibly some breezy northerly winds at times
through the Santa Ynez Range and I5 corridor.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...03/221 PM.

The xtnd forecast is all about the heat. The ridge will peak on
Sunday and then will be knocked down some on Monday as a trof
passes well to north. The lower hgts will make Monday the only day
of the 4 that does not see warming temps. A stronger ridge builds
in starting Tuesday and peaking Wednesday and Thursday. Highs are
expected to climb into 70s to low 80s for coastal areas and mid
80s to mid 90s in the valleys with at least a 5-10% chance of
reaching 100 in the western San Fernando Valley Wed/Thu. There`s
reasonable chance of heat advisories at least in the LA/Ventura
valleys both those days. Overnight lows will also be warming up,
especially in the foothills.

Weak offshore flow will continue through the period. Skies will be
mostly clear. The forecast does not contain any low clouds but
there is 20 to 30 percent chc of some clouds each morning esp over
Srn LA county and western SBA county.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0555Z.

At 0518Z at KLAX, there was no marine inversion nor a marine
layer.

Good confidence in TAFs.

KLAX...Good confidence in CAVU TAF. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...Good confidence in CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...03/811 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in current forecast.
Tonight through Friday night, periods of Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level winds will continue, with a lull likely late tonight
into tomorrow morning, especially in the northern zone. For
Saturday and Sunday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels
except for a 20-30% chance for brief SCA winds south of Point
Conception in the afternoon and evening hours. From Sunday night
through Tuesday, a combination of SCA level winds and seas are
likely (60-80% chance).

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in
current forecast. There is a 40% chance of SCA level winds
continuing into late tonight. Tomorrow, there is a 40-50% chance
of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For
Saturday and Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining
below SCA levels. From Sunday night through Tuesday, there is a
60-80% chance of a combination of SCA level winds and seas (with
the strongest winds in the afternoon and evening hours).

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern
Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below
SCA levels through Tuesday. The only exception will be the western
half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 30-40% chance of SCA
level winds late Friday afternoon/evening and a 50-60% chance of
SCA level winds Monday and Tuesday during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Smith
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RAT/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox