229
FXUS66 KLOX 240052
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
452 PM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...23/209 PM.

Unsettled weather with periods of rain is possible at times for
southwest California into next week with more widespread moderate
rain possible late Sunday through Tuesday, focused across the
Central Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...23/207 PM.

Relatively benign weather is on tap through Sunday afternoon,
although periods of light showers or drizzle are possible just
about anywhere at times. Additional rainfall amounts through this
period will generally be very light and under a tenth of an inch.

Low to moderate confidence Sunday night through at least Tuesday
associated with a weak atmospheric river expected to develop
across the Central Coast late Sunday and potentially continue
through Tuesday. The main uncertainty is with the exact location
where exactly the atmospheric river sets up for the longest period
of time. As of now, the center of the atmospheric river is most
likely to focus on San Luis Obispo and Monterey Counties, although
it will likely target areas further south at times, but
potentially in a weakened state. Rainfall rates will generally be
light to moderate, although occasionally heavier rainfall is
possible, especially for the coastal foothills and mountains north
of Point Conception. Rainfall totals of 1.5-3 inches will likely
be common for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties with
local 4+ inch amounts possible in the Santa Lucia mountains. Most
areas of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties will see less than an
inch, perhaps even less than a quarter inch in some areas, with
the exception of greater than an inch possible in the higher
terrain. Advisory level, minor flooding may be possible,
especially across the Central Coast and adjacent mountains.

Increased moisture and clouds associated with the atmospheric
river will continue the warming trend for overnight lows with
below average daytime temperatures likely continuing through
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...23/206 PM.

Below normal forecast confidence for Wednesday through Friday
including Thanksgiving with up to a 20 percent chance of rain each
day as a compact weakening storm system lurks offshore and may
eventually move ashore during this period or weaken and remain
mainly offshore. Heading into next weekend we may move into an
offshore or Santa Ana type wind pattern with warming and drying
trends, although confidence remains low in this time period as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0051Z.

At 2328Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF package. Moderate to High
confidence in spotty light rain, drizzle for many airfields
especially KSBA south through this evening. There is a 30 to 40%
chance light rain showers could linger in LA county TAF sites
(excluding KPMD and KWJF) after 06z. Rain chances could increase
earlier than current forecast for KPRB, KSBP, and KSMX. Moderate
confidence in the timing of flight category changes (could be +/-
1-3 hours of current forecasts).

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 1-2 hours of current forecasts. There is a
40% chance light showers could linger around after 06z. No
significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 1-2 hours of current forecasts. There is a
30% chance light showers could linger around after 06z.

&&

.MARINE...23/146 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Through Sunday night, winds and seas will remain below
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Monday, there is a 30-40%
chance of SCA level winds across PZZ670/676. From Monday night
through Thursday, winds and seas are expected to be below SCA
levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, there is high confidence
in current forecast. Through Thursday, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels, except for a 20%-30% chance
of SCA level wind gusts at times Monday evening.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, there is high
confidence in current forecast. Through Thursday, winds and seas
are expected to remain below SCA levels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox