483
FXUS66 KLOX 040338
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
838 PM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...03/816 PM.

Broad troughing aloft will keep a strong onshore flow and a
persistent marine intrusion in place into next week. A cooler than
normal weather pattern will continue with night through morning
low clouds and fog being a staple of the forecast through the
period. Some warming is possible away from the coast over the
weekend, but closer to the coast, low clouds will likely to be
stubborn to clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...03/817 PM.

The latest water vapor imagery indicates an upper-level trough
over Baja California this evening. Most of showers and
thunderstorms have shifted south of the area, but a few showers
could still clip eastern Los Angeles County overnight as
wraparound activity in the desert holds together long enough.
Barring no additional bump up in intensities, the threat of brief
heavy downpours and small hail has likely ended for tonight as
daytime heating disappears from the equation.

Broad troughing aloft will be reinforced across the region between
tonight and into Wednesday. The synoptic pattern will very likely
keep strong onshore flow in place along with a deep marine
intrusion. While lower confidence exists in the low cloud field
this evening due to the middle and high level debris clouds
remaining across the Southland, there is better confidence
overnight and into Wednesday, especially north of Point Conception
for low clouds and fog to return. A cooler weather pattern will
likely linger into at least Friday with clouds likely hugging the
coast.

One wrinkle exists in the weather pattern for Thursday as another
trough drops down into the region near Point Conception. There is
a possibility of convective showers developing again on Thursday
afternoon and evening, in addition to another round of night
through morning drizzle that could develop. Dynamics with trough
will push into the region again between Wednesday night and
Thursday night. EPS precipitable water value means exceed 1 inch
at KOXR. The latest NAM-WRF solutions suggest 850-700 mb mixing
ratios exceeding 8 g/kg, which fall inline with the EPS moisture
assessments. With a divergent flow pattern developing, there is
some concern for showers and thunderstorms developing over the
Ventura County Mountains. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may
need to be considered by future shifts.

***From Previous Discussion***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...03/201 PM.

Most of the ensemble solutions are on board with the warming
trend through the coming weekend with warmer valley highs in the
mid or possibly upper 90s. But much cooler at the coast with a
moderate to strong onshore flow. Confidence isn`t great beyond the
weekend as model solutions start to show quite a bit of spread but
at this point not seeing anything through the middle of next week
that`s too far from normal.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1639Z.

At 1615Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was 2500 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was 3800 feet with a temperature of 16
degrees Celsius.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in KPMD and KWJF with a
20-30% chance of a showers or a thunderstorm 22Z-04Z.

For coastal/valley sites, low to moderate confidence in 18Z
TAFs. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of
current forecasts. There is a 20-30% chance of showers or a
thunderstorm through about 04Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There is a 20%
chance of showers or a thunderstorm 22Z-04Z. No significant
easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There is a 20%
chance of showers or a thunderstorm 22Z-04Z.

&&

.MARINE...03/837 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Saturday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. On Sunday,
there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds around Point Conception,
Northern Channel islands, and down to San Nicolas island.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Today through Sunday, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence
in current forecast. Today through Saturday, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels. On Sunday, there is a 30%
chance of SCA level winds for western portions of the Santa Barbara
Channel. There is a 10% chance of showers across PZZ676 through
the rest of the evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall/MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox