137
FXUS66 KLOX 031041 AAA
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
341 AM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Updated aviation section

.SYNOPSIS...03/242 AM.

It will be dry today but a chance of showers and thunderstorms
will develop this afternoon and last into the evening. Dry weather
is expected starting Friday and lasting through next week. A
strong warming trend will begin Friday and will continue through
late next week with only a one day break on Monday. Well above
normal temperatures are very likely next Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs in the 90s expected across the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...03/302 AM.

Ydy`s showers have tapered off. Quite a bit of cloudiness remains
over SLO and SBA counties with VTA and LA counties under clear
skies. The persistent upper low over NV will finally begin to move
to the east. It will, however, deliver one last shot of PVA and
instability to the region this afternoon and early evening. Due
the eastward progress of the low this afternoon`s activity will be
focused over Nrn VTA county and most of LA county. The best chc of
convective activity will be over the mtns but there is a 25
percent chc that the showers or TSTMs will move off of the mtns
and into the vlys and perhaps into DTLA. Rainfall rates under the
heavier showers will be near a half inch per hour. The storms will
be moving along at a decent clip pushed along with about a 30 mph
upper level flow. This means that any one cell will not likely
produce any hydrologic problems. There is, however, a chance that
multiple cells will train over a single area and this could create
some flooding issues. Snow levels will be near 5000 ft but could
lower to 4000 ft under a heavy convective burst.

The clouds and showers over LA county will linger into the evening
but then will diminish.

A ridge will slowly build into the area on Friday and Saturday.
Weak offshore flow will develop as well. Skies will be mostly
clear through the period. The rising hgts, offshore flow and early
April sunshine will all combine to bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming
each day. Below normal temperatures will continue on Friday but
Saturday`s warming will bring most temps up to 2 to 3 degrees over
normal. Highs Saturday across the csts and vlys will mostly be in
the 70s with an outside chc of lower 80s in the warmest vly
locations.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...03/321 AM.

The xtnd forecast is all about the heat. The ridge will peak on
Sunday and then will be knocked down some on Monday as a trof
passes well to north. The lower hgts will make Monday the only day
of the 4 that does not see warming temps. A stronger ridge builds
in starting Tuesday and continues through Thursday.

Weak offshore flow will continue through the period. Skies will be
mostly clear. The forecast does not contain any low clouds but
there is 20 to 30 percent chc of some clouds each morning esp over
Srn LA county and western SBA county.

Look for 2 to 4 degrees of warming on Sunday which will push vly
temps into the lower 80s with isolated mid 80s. 3 to 6 degrees of
cooling is slated for Monday with the trof and some onshore flow.
Then the serious warming begins with 3 to 6 degrees of warming
Tue and 4 to 8 additional degrees on Wed. Most temps on Wed will
be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with mostly mid 70s to lower 80s
near the coast and mid to upper 80s further inland. The vlys will
be in the upper 80s through the mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1037Z.

Around 0815Z, there was mo marine layer depth at KLAX.

Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. There is a
low chance that a thunderstorm could drift off the mountains and
into Los Angeles and Ventura County valleys between 18Z and 06Z.
Any thunderstorms could produce gusty and erratic winds, brief
heavy downpours, small hail, lower ceilings and visibilities, and
lightning.

KLAX...Easterly winds between 7 and 12 knots will continue through
at least 15Z, and likely into 18Z. There is a 10 percent chance
of thunderstorms to develop between 19Z through 04Z. Any
thunderstorms could produce gusty and erratic winds, brief heavy
downpours, small hail, lower ceilings and visibilities, and
lightning. There is a 30 percent chance of MVFR conditions in any
showers and thunderstorms.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms to develop between 19Z and 04Z. Any thunderstorms
could produce gusty and erratic winds, brief heavy downpours,
small hail, lower ceilings and visibilities, and lightning. There
is a 40 percent chance of MVFR conditions in any showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...03/322 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher
confidence exists in the forecast for winds. Less confidence in
the current forecast for seas. There is a 80-100 percent chance
of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions through at least this
morning, then the chance for SCA conditions will decrease to
50-80 percent through late tonight, lowest across the eastern
nearshore portions of the southern California bight. A brief lull
in SCA level winds may occur on Friday morning, then winds will
increase across the coastal waters, especially beyond 10 NM
offshore of the Central Coast and south to northwest of San
Nicolas Island.

Winds will retreat below SCA levels late Friday night through
Saturday with a 20-30 percent chance of SCA winds returning
Saturday afternoon and evening. By Sunday afternoon and evening,
there is a 40-50 percent chance of SCA level winds with higher
chances for SCA conditions early next week.

Dense fog may develop this upcoming weekend, especially in the
evening to morning hours, in response to a ridge building over
the region.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning
      for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...Phillips/MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox