498
FXUS66 KLOX 191811 AAA
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1111 AM PDT Sat Sep 19 2026

updated aviation discussion

.SYNOPSIS...19/315 AM.

A weak upper level trough will move over the area this weekend
into Monday, cooling temperatures slightly and increasing marine
layer stratus. A warming trend will begin Tuesday and peak on
Thursday, with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...19/858 AM.

***UPDATE***

Another quiet weather day with no impactful conditions other that
some patchy marine layer stratus along the Central Coast and in
parts of LA County that could create some minor impacts to
aviation interests. Still expecting a minor cooling trend this
weekend as a weak upper low approaches from the west and moves
through the area Sunday and Monday. Still can`t rule out a stray
shower during that time but chances are less than 10 percent as
moisture is lacking. Not expecting any major deviations to the
current forecast today.

***From Previous Discussion***

Calm weather and near to below normal temperatures will last
through Tuesday. A weak low pressure system will move across the
region Sunday and Monday, brining a cooling trend. Monday will be
the coolest day of the week, when temperatures will be largely in
the 70s across the region and gusty onshore flow will occur
across the beaches and interior during the afternoon and evening.
The low is favored to be relatively dry, however the low will
bring some instability and moisture to the area. Thus there is a
5-15 percent chance of a shower or thunderstorms occuring over San
Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties, as well as the interior
mountains of LA and Ventura Counties Sunday and Monday. Marine
layer clouds are expected each day across the coasts and some
valleys, with the highest inland coverage likely on Monday and
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...19/404 AM.

Behind the trough, weak high pressure is favored to build over
the area with 500 mb heights peaking mid and late this upcoming
week. In addition, surface pressure gradients have the potential
to switch to light offshore Wednesday and Thursday, which will
contribute to a warming trend (though minor compared to the heat
event earlier this month). Highs have the potential to rise to
80-90 degrees at the beaches and inland coasts, and 90-100 degrees
for the valleys (around 10 degrees above normal). At this point,
there is a small (15 percent) chance that some Heat Advisories
will be issued next week for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...19/1810Z.

At 1735Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2300 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 5200 ft with a temperature of 18 C.

High confidence in VFR conds for KPMD & KWJF.

Low to moderate confidence in the remaining sites. The timing of
CIG and any VSBY restrictions tonight into Sun morning may be off
+/- 2 hrs and flight minimums by one category.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Return and dissipation
of MVFR CIGs 015-020 may differ by +/- 2 hrs from forecast times,
and cigs may scatter and reform due to high clouds after 08Z Sun.
Any east wind component is expected remain less than 6kt.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. Cigs OVC007-010 will
likely occur between 09-17Z Sun with timing possibly off +/- 2 hrs
from forecast times.

&&

.MARINE...19/846 AM.

For the outer waters, generally high confidence in the current
forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are likely
across all the waters through Sunday night, then for the waters
west and south of Point Conception Sunday night through Monday
night. There is a 40%-50% chance of SCA wind gusts again in these
areas Tuesday night, otherwise conds will be below SCA levels
Tuesday through Wednesday night. Expect steep, choppy seas with
the SCA conditions.

For the inner waters N of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence
in the current forecast. SCA wind gusts are likely during the
afternoons and evenings through Sunday. Conds are then expected to
be below SCA levels late Sunday night through Wednesday night,
although there will still be a 20%-30% chance of occasional SCA
level wind gusts each afternoon and evening.

For the inner waters S of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in the current forecast. Conds are expected to be below
SCA levels for the most part through Wednesday night. However,
for the western Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 50-60% chance
of SCA wind gusts this afternoon/evening and again Monday
afternoon/evening. There is also a 30%-40% chance of these gusts
Tuesday evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox