619
FXUS66 KLOX 052223
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
223 PM PST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...05/118 PM.

A series of Pacific storm systems will move over the region through
Friday. Off and on drizzle or light rain is possible through
Thursday. The next storm will bring more rain to the area Thursday
night into Friday. Dry weather is expected over the weekend into
early next week with below normal temperatures. Another storm is
expected around the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...05/204 PM.

The first storm is long gone but instead of our typical shift to
post-frontal northwest flow, we remain in a moist southwest flow
as a second system is very close behind. As a result, many areas,
mainly south of Pt Conception due the more favorable orographics
from the Transverse Range, continue to get drizzle or light rain
even into this afternoon. The areal coverage of this light precip
will continue to shrink through the day, but overnight it will
expand again as southerly flow increases and creates a favorable
environment for more drizzle and light rain that will continue
into Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, the second system this week is approaching 130w this
afternoon and will reach the Central Coast around between 10 and 2
2pm Thursday. This storm has a peak IVT value of around 500 around
SLO County which is right on the border between a weak to
moderate AR. And as with the last system that IVT value drops
rapidly moving south to around 250 in LA, which is at best a weak
AR. These are very similar numbers as the first system and
ensemble solutions and high res models are indicating similar rain
rain rates overall, mainly under a quarter inch per hour except up
to a half inch in the mountains of SLO/SB Counties. The main
difference is the system moves through a little faster based on
the latest model so the duration of rain should not be quite as
long, especially along the Central Coast. So overall amounts
should be more uniform across the 4 county area, mainly under one
inch most areas, except 2-3" in the mountains. And once again
little to no snow with snow levels mostly above 8000 feet. Overall
a beneficial rain for most areas with minimal impacts. Some wind
is expected with the storm Thursday and Thursday night, especially
in SLO County, but southerly gradients are 2-4mb weaker than
yesterday winds should be slightly weaker.

Rain is expected to taper off early Friday morning along the
Central Coast and later in the afternoon for LA County.

Sunshine returns Saturday but temperatures 3-6 degrees below
normal. Likely some gusty northerly winds in the mountains.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...05/219 PM.

Dry, northwest flow dominates the weather pattern Sunday through
Tuesday with some locally gusty winds at times in the mountains
and along the Central Coast. Very little change in temperatures
from the weekend with highs in the low 60s and some sub-freezing
overnight temperatures across the colder valleys, especially
interior SLO County and the Antelope Valley.

The next storm system is expected to arrive Wednesday and
continue into Thursday and does have AR characteristics. Ensemble
solutions are exhibiting typical back and forth rain amounts from
run to run but the ensemble means are very similar to the storms
this week. One thing to monitor is there is a higher percentage of
solutions showing rain totals over 3 inches, and even a few over
5 inches, even in LA County. So there is a higher ceiling with
next week`s storm. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...05/2222Z.

At 22Z at KLAX, there was a 8000 ft deep moist layer.

Low confidence in the current forecast. Predominantly IFR to
MVFR ceilings and visibilities in rain and mist will continue
from the beaches to the coastal ranges. Conditions will likely
improve some through 03Z, but there is a moderate chance of
conditions briefly lowering in showers. There is a high chance of
IFR to MVFR conditions after 03Z.

KLAX...Predominantly IFR to MVFR conditions in rain will affect
the terminal into early afternoon. Conditions will likely improve
some through 03Z, but there is a 30 percent chance of conditions
briefly lowering in showers. There is a 50 percent chance of IFR
to MVFR conditions after 03Z. There is a 60 percent chance of
easterly winds between 7 and 10 knots through mid-afternoon. A
westerly wind switch could occur as soon as 00Z or late as 03Z.

KBUR...Predominantly IFR to MVFR conditions in rain and mist will
affect the terminal into early afternoon. Conditions will likely
improve some between 20Z and 03Z, but there is a 30 percent chance
of conditions briefly lowering in showers. There is a 50 percent
chance of IFR to MVFR conditions after 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...05/206 PM.

High confidence in the forecast through early Thursday, then
moderate confidence thereafter.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, remaining Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) level northerly winds over the Outer Waters
will slowly decrease through this afternoon. A lull in the winds
is very likely through early Thursday, then there is a 60-80
percent chance of SCA southerly winds by Thursday afternoon. The
winds will shift to northwesterly on Friday. There is a 30-40
percent chance of gales Thursday night through the weekend.

Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas will likely
remain below SCA levels through Thursday evening, and then there
is a 40-60 percent chance of SCA level southerly winds developing
between Thursday night and Friday. The winds will shift to west to
northwest on Friday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Hall/Cohen
MARINE...Hall/Cohen
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox