105
FXUS66 KLOX 281800
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.SYNOPSIS...28/124 AM.

Night through morning low clouds will prevail through most of this
week, with temperatures well below normal through at least
Thursday. Modest warming likely to follow. A few spits of drizzle
is possible, especially on Monday. Gusty winds will continue over
the interior mountains and deserts, as well as southwest Santa
Barbara County through at least the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...28/826 AM.

***UPDATE***

Aircraft data indicates a deep marine layer this morning around
4500 ft. Current visible satellite imagery shows low clouds
arrived to Santa Clarita Valley and even farther north near the
Antelope Valley foothills.

Sundowners were rather gusty yesterday evening through the
overnight period. Refugio gusted to 65 mph. SBA-SMX gradient
is expected to weaken somewhat (-2 to -3 mb) this evening.
There is about 30-40% chance that an wind advisory will be
issued for this evening - expecting a shorter duration of
gustier winds. This decision will likely be made with the
afternoon package.

Deep marine layer is expected to persist in the short-term
with night through morning low clouds extending deep into
the interior. Below average temperatures will persist. Gusty
winds will continue over the interior mountains and deserts.
Weak ridging with a warmup is likely to follow next weekend.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...28/218 AM.

Broad upper level troughing with moderate onshore flow will
maintain well below normal temperatures through Thursday. The
consensus of model projections agree on high pressure building
over the region Friday and Saturday, which will likely hold fairly
steady into the following week. High temperatures should approach
normal by Saturday, rising between Wednesday and Saturday by 5
degrees at the coast, 10 degrees in the valleys, and 15 degrees in
the deserts. Coastal areas will carry the greatest uncertainty as
the marine layer should stick around and may even become more
organized as the marine inversion strengthens. With that stated,
predicting the finer details of the marine layer several days out
is a fools errand, so take that tidbit with a grain of salt.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1759Z.

At 17Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3800 ft deep. The top of the
weak inversion was 10,000 feet with a temperature of 12 Celsius.

High confidence continues for VFR TAFs for KPMD KWJF with
abnormally strong and persistent onshore winds. KPRB will likely
stay clear with only a 20% chance of seeing clouds today or
Monday.

Moderate confidence in ceilings at all other airports today.
Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours) and flight categories
(+/- 1 category. The rest should see ceilings, but coverage and
timing will be difficult to predict as the inversion continues to
weaken. Expect the marine layer to push back in tonight with most
places seeing with the exception of KPMD and KWJF MVFR. Low to
moderate chance some locations drop down to IFR.

KLAX...High confidence for ceilings today continue, moderate
confidence Monday. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours) and
flight categories (+/- 1 category). 50% chance of southeast winds
8-10 knots 13-17Z tonight.

KBUR...High confidence in ceilings today, moderate confidence
Monday. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours) and flight
categories (+/- 1 category). Southeast winds likely longer lasting
than normal.

&&

.MARINE...28/141 AM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds for the
outer waters from the Central Coast through San Nicolas Island
through Monday morning, with some improvement after. The
nearshore Central Coast waters will likely see SCA winds today
focused this afternoon and evening, with chances decreasing
Monday and Tuesday.

High confidence in SCA winds over the western Santa Barbara
Channel late this afternoon and evening once again, with lowering
chances to follow. The rest of the waters will likely stay under
SCA.

All waters will see short-period choppy seas into early next week,
with today likely being the worst.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone
      645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Black/RK
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...RK
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox