831
FXUS66 KLOX 090248
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
748 PM PDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...08/731 PM.

Warmer than normal temperatures will continue through early next
week as high pressure extends from Arizona to the Pacific
northwest. Typical onshore flow will keep coastal areas cooler
with areas of morning low clouds and dense fog. A cooling trend is
expected to begin around the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...08/746 PM.

***UPDATE***

The marine inversion early this evening ranged from near 600 ft
deep at LAX to near 1000 ft deep at VBG. Low clouds were along
much of the Central Coast early this evening and will spread inland
some overnight, along with patchy dense fog. S of Point
Conception, low clouds were generally patchy over the coastal
waters but are expected to expand a bit overnight and move to the
coast and inland some. Patchy dense fog also cannot be ruled out
late tonight for a few of these areas. Otherwise and elsewhere,
mostly clear skies will prevail thru the night, except for smokey
conditions at times in and around the Gifford and Canyon Fires.

Breezy to gusty S to W winds continued this evening, strongest in
the Antelope Vly and adjacent foothills. These winds will diminish
overnight, including in and around the wildfire areas.

***From Previous Discussion***

Overall, high temperatures will remain 3-6 degrees above normal
through early next week with just minor day to day changes. High
pressure remains anchored over AZ/NM with another upper high off
the coast of OR/WA. Highs today actually cooled slightly more than
expected as onshore flow to the east increased by almost 2mb.
With such minor changes in the upper level pattern the trends in
the pressure gradients will have a the biggest influence on the
local temperatures. These temperatures, while quite warm, still
fall at least 3-5 degrees short of heat advisory levels in most
areas based on the heat risk calculation that factors in not just
the high temps but also the overnight lows and other factors as
well.

A shallow marine layer mostly under 1000 feet will likely lead to
some areas of dense fog at the beaches the next few mornings, and
possibly lingering into the afternoon, especially along the
Central Coast.

With a couple large fires in the area there will be some smokey
conditions at times the next few days at least. Winds expected to
be mostly under 20 mph in most areas but some locally stronger
gusts possible at times, especially in the Antelope Valley.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...08/207 PM.

Little change in the weather Tuesday before the upper level
pattern along the West coast shifts from ridge to trough Wednesday
through at least next weekend. By next Thursday and Friday
temperatures area-wide are expected to 4-8 degrees below normal
with a heavy dose of marine layer stratus covering the coast and
valleys in the night and morning hours. Long range ensemble
solutions are suggesting that the much cooler than normal pattern
will continue until at least the 19th of Aug.

&&

.AVIATION...09/0059Z.

At 0000Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2400 ft with a temperature of 30 C.

Smoke from nearby wildfires may cause reduced vis at times,
especially KSBA, KSMX, SBP, KPMD, and KWJF.

High confidence in VFR TAFs at KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF.

Low to moderate confidence in forecast for the remaining sites,
due to reduced confidence in timing of flight category changes.
However, there remains high confidence in IFR or lower cigs/vsbys
when cigs do arrive for all coastal sites except KSBA where there
is only a 20 percent chance that low clouds arrive. LIFR conds
likely for KSMX and KSBP.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF between 06Z-18Z.
There is a 40 percent chance of IFR cigs vsbys focused 08Z-16Z.
Any east wind component should remain below 7 kts.

KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF with VFR conds expected.

&&

.MARINE...08/733 PM.

Small Craft Advisory or near SCA conditions will likely
transition to the southern Inner Waters this weekend before
shifting over the Outer Water and western Santa Barbara Channel
early next week. There is a 30-40 percent chance of reaching SCA
levels this weekend, peaking in the afternoon to evening hours for
the southern Inner Waters, including nearshore. The southern outer
waters may see SCA winds return (30-50% chance) Monday into
Tuesday.

Night to morning dense fog may continue at times into early next
week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Sirard
AVIATION...Ciliberti
MARINE...Munroe/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox