996
FXUS66 KLOX 221705
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
905 AM PST Fri Nov 22 2024

Updated Aviation and Marine sections

.SYNOPSIS...22/815 AM.

Rain chances will develop along the Central Coast this evening,
then spread across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties by Saturday.
Light rain is expected at times tonight through Saturday with
generally minimal accumulations. Another round of rain is
expected later Sunday into Monday and again Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...22/843 AM.

The large cyclone off the Pac NW coast has split into two which
are pinwheeling around each other. The southern extent of the
moisture is around Monterey, but that will be sagging south
tonight and through early next week as the main upper low shifts
south to near the OR/CA border. With the upper low remaining that
far north that will limit the impacts and rainfall amounts
locally.

For today dry weather (literally very dry with humidities still
under 10% away from the coast) expected through the daylight
hours with increasing chances this evening across SLO County and
working its way south overnight into Saturday for Ventura/LA
counties. Latest ensembles as well as the hi res models all
indicating 3-5 hours of very light amounts with this first
impulse, mostly under a quarter inch most areas. Locally up to a
half inch in the upslope areas of SLO/SB Counties. For LA County
light rain expected to start mid to late morning with most areas
under a tenth of an inch and many areas possibly not receiving
more than a trace.

After that there`s a roughly 24-36 hour break before the second
impulse comes through Sunday (for SLO County) and later Sunday
into Monday south of there. This one may be 10-20% wetter but
models have overall trended lower with the amounts. At this point
looking at around a half inch overall, with some locally higher
amounts across SLO County and other upslope areas.

Overall, neither system poses any threats for flooding or
impactful winds.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...22/858 AM.

A third impulse on Tuesday from the very large system will follow
pretty quickly after the second and for some areas the second and
third waves may just blend together into one. This one has a
little stronger upslope flow and some of the solutions stall it
over the area through late Tuesday into early Wednesday. So while
the rain rates should still be under a quarter inch per hour, the
rain totals may equal or locally exceed the amounts received
during between Friday night and Monday. Overall, Tuesday just
looks like a drippy, dreary day with off and on light rain with
brief periods with slightly higher rain rates.

Lots of uncertainty after Tuesday but most of the ensembles are
dry through the period. The deterministic GFS maintains a moist
westerly flow across the area through the long Thanksgiving
weekend with off an on precipitation chances, but that`s in stark
contrast with most of the ensemble solutions that favor a drier
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1704Z.

At 1600Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer.

Moderate to high confidence in the TAFs. Cig/vsby restrictions and
light rain are forecast to spread southward across areas north of
Pt. Conception this evening. Light rain coverage will be less as
the activity spreads farther south tonight, though MVFR cigs are
still expected tonight into Saturday. There is a 40% chance for
onset times of cig/vsby restrictions to vary by +/- 3 hours from
current forecasts, and a 40% chance for minimum cigs/vsbys to be
off by a category. The light rain will be departing the region
later on Saturday, when cigs/vsbys improve.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions through this evening.
MVFR cigs are expected thereafter. There is a 40% chance for
onset times of cig restrictions to vary by +/- 3 hours from
current forecasts, and a 40% chance for minimum cigs to be off by
a category. There is a 20% chance for light rain to impact the
TAF site tonight into Saturday morning. No significant easterly
wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through this evening.
MVFR cigs are expected thereafter. There is a 40% chance for
onset times of cig restrictions to vary by +/- 3 hours from
current forecasts, and a 40% chance for minimum cigs to be off by
a category. There is a 20% chance for light rain to impact the
TAF site tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...22/903 AM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are forecast over the northern
and central Outer Waters (PZZ670/PZZ673) this afternoon through
tonight, and across the northern inner waters (PZZ645) tonight.
Otherwise, SCA conditions are unlikely across the coastal waters
through next week. Areas of light rain will occur at times through
next week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM PST
      Saturday for zones 340-344. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PST Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
      zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PST Saturday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Cohen
MARINE...Cohen
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith/Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox