756
FXUS66 KLOX 061853
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1153 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...06/920 AM.

Slightly cooler than normal conditions will continue through
midweek due to a broad area of upper-level low pressure over the
West. Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue
through the week. There is a slight chance of rain for late in the
week for Los Angeles County.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...06/932 AM.

***UPDATE***

Marine layer stratus decided to make it`s big return this morning,
with clouds pushing into the coastal valleys as well. That also
caused morning lows to be 3-6 degrees warmer than the previous
few mornings. But outside of that no significant changes to the
forecast are expected through mid week.

There continues to be a lot of uncertainty in the forecast later
in the week as moisture from what is currently Hurricane Priscilla
moves up the Baja Coast while an unseasonably cold upper moves
into the coastal waters west of the Bay Area. Chances for rain are
still in the forecast but there is still a considerable range of
possible outcomes from heavy rain, lightning, and muggy/warm
conditions to no rain, a deep marine layer, and much cooler than
normal temperatures. May not get much clarity on this for a few
more days.

***From Previous Discussion***

A weak upper low will set up to the west of Monterey county
Tuesday. This will bring a little more cyclonic flow to the area
and should help the marine layer cloud deck to form earlier with
more extensive coverage. This will not have much affect on the
temps which will be similar today`s.

The upper low tries to pass through the state on Wednesday but is
subsumed by the increasing SW flow assoc with a huge upper
centered to the west of Seattle. It will bring enough lift to push
low clouds into many of the vlys and delay clearing some. Onshore
flow will increase (esp to the east) and it will be breezy across
the beaches and Antelope Vly. Max temps will nose dive with the
deeper marine layer, cool air advection and the enhanced sea
breeze. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of cooling over most of the area.
Max temps will be mostly in the 70s across the csts and lower to
mid 80s in the vlys. These temps are 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...06/1229 AM.

On Thursday a cool (546 dam) and very large upper low will work
its way southward just off of the west coast. It will remain far
enough to the north of Srn CA that the only effects it will bring
are increasing SW flow and cyclonic turning as well as slowly
falling hgts. There is a big wrinkle in the fcst - Tropical
storm Priscilla. Most ensembles forecast a no issues westward
track, but 15 to 20 percent do show just enough of a faster more
eastward track that bring rain to LA county. If that happens it
will be cloudier and cooler than current fcst shows. The more
likely scenario calls for minimal marine layer (only the Central
Coast) several degrees of warming for the csts/vlys.

Mdls continue to struggle with the Priscilla track on Friday. 15
to 20 percent of the ensembles do advect enough moisture into the
southern portion of the forecast area to bring a slight chc of
rain for most of LA County and to a lesser extent VTA county. The
rest of the fcst is pretty hazy and really dependent on how
Priscilla interacts with the large upper low which should reach
the waters off of Humbolt county and then begin a turn to the
east.

The upper low transverses Nrn Ca on Saturday and it will sweep
drier air into the area. This will eliminate the threat of rain.
It will bring enough cool air and mixing to disrupt the marine
layer as well. It will bring cool air advection and gusty
offshore flow from the north. Max temps will drop 3 to 6 locally 8
degrees as cool air moves in with the low passage. Max temps will
be 3 to 6 degrees blo normal with most cst temps in the upper 60s
to mid 70s with the vlys coming in with mid 70s to mid 80s.

Sunday will be dry and breezy day with a 4 to 5 mb offshore push
from the north. Max temps will not change much from Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1852Z.

At 1810Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was near 4000 feet with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs, as transition times may be
off by 2 hours tonight. There is a 15% chance of LIFR conditions
for KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, and KVNY tonight from 12Z-16Z Tue.
There is also a 20% chance that no cigs develop at KBUR and KVNY.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds may arrive as early
as 05Z this evening, and as late as 12Z Tue. There is a 20%
chance of cigs as low as OVC006 from 12Z-16Z Tue. No significant
east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF, timing of the arrival of cigs
tonight may be off by 2 hours tonight. There is a 15% chance of
cigs as low as OVC003 and VSBY as low as 2SM from 12Z-16Z Tue, and
there is also a 20% chance that no cigs form through the period.

&&

.MARINE...06/739 AM.

ACross the outer waters and nearshore along the Central Coast
conditions are likely to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
criteria through Thursday with increasing winds to near or above
SCA levels possible by Friday. SCA winds look likely for the
weekend.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions should
generally remain below SCA criteria through mid week. There will
then be a 20-40% chance for SCA level winds Thursday and Friday,
with the best chances for the Santa Barbara Channel. There is a
60% chance for SCA winds for Saturday evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Phillips/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox