633
FXUS66 KLOX 052335
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
435 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...05/110 PM.

Night and morning low clouds and fog will continue for the next
several days for coast and valleys with slow, if any clearing at
the coast. Cooler than normal temperatures are expected through
the end of the week, then a warming trend will develop for the
weekend and through next week, especially away from the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...05/110 PM.

A weak upper low over the Bay Area is expected to be nudged
westward Friday and out over the Pacific Friday and through the
weekend as a stronger trough drops into the Great Basin and
northern Rockies. This will have a couple of impacts locally. The
one most people will notice will be warming temperatures as
heights/thicknesses rise in response to the upper low moving
farther west. The marine layer depth will in turn decrease with
earlier clearing times in most areas. A moderate to strong onshore
flow may prevent stratus clearing from some beaches, especially
Ventura and southern Santa Barbara Counties as the onshore flow to
the north remains quite strong (>5mb). Otherwise, high
temperatures are expected to rise 2-5 degrees each day through the
weekend with highs in the mid 90s in the warmer valleys by Sunday.

The second impact will be decreasing chances for afternoon
convection over the mountains as there will be less moisture and
instability to work with.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...05/120 PM.

No significant changes to the 4-7 day forecast. One additional
day of warming Monday with 500mb heights up to around 591dam which
could push warmest valley highs close to 100, but not quite
enough for heat advisories. A shallow marine layer will confine
stratus to just the coastal zones.

A weak trough will return to the West Coast Tue-Fri for a modest
cooling trend. Inland areas will likely remain several degrees
above normal at least through Wednesday, then dipping slightly
below normal Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...05/2335Z.

At 2240Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4700 feet with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in all remaining TAFs. There is a 20% chance
of LIFR cigs at KPRB, and equal chances VFR conds prevail through
fcst pd. There is a 20-30% chance of LIFR conds at KSBP, KSBP,
and KSMX. Arrival and departure times of cigs may be off +/- 2
hours with minimum flight cats off by one or two.

KLAX...Moderate confidence 00Z TAF. Arrival and departure times of
MVFR cigs (010-020) may be off +/- 2 hours. Intermittent IFR cigs
(007-009) are possible through 18Z Fri. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...05/147 PM.

Typical northwest to west winds will form south of Point
Conception during this afternoon to evening, with a 30% chance of
reaching Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels Friday with short
period choppy seas likely nearshore.

There is a 30% chance of SCA conditions shifting to the outer
waters, especially from Point Conception to the Channels Islands
this weekend. SCA conditions are likely (60%) for the outer water
early next week.

Dense fog may become widespread by this weekend, especially in the
evening to morning hours.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Munroe
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox