808
FXUS66 KLOX 250742
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1142 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...24/459 PM.

Unsettled weather with periods of rain is expected at times for
southwest California into the middle of the coming week. Fairly
widespread light to moderate rain is possible late Monday through
Tuesday, focused across the Central Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...24/819 PM.

***UPDATE***

No significant updates planned for the forecast this evening.
Mainly light winds are observed across the area at this time,
aside from a few locations reporting westerly winds gusting near
20 mph. The models show a moist zonal flow aloft this evening with
a front analyzed at the surface approaching the Central Coast.
There is general model agreement in rain spreading over areas
north of Point Conception between around midnight and 400 AM,
initially light rain but with heavier rain developing between
600-1000 AM. The NAM12 in particular shows significant rain over
north/central San Luis Obispo County during this time frame and
through the late afternoon to evening hours. This storm will also
focus most of the rainfall north of Point Conception, with rain
amounts decreasing southwestward into Ventura County, and even
more so into LA County. Believe that rain will spread over
interior Ventura and possibly LA County in the afternoon to
evening hours on Monday, but even so, by far the most rainfall is
expected to be over the northern sections.

LA County should see between 0.10 to 0.30 inch of rain, with 0.30
to 0.80 over Ventura, highest in the mountains. 1 to 3 inches are
expected across Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, with
4+ inches for the Santa Lucia Mountains, with storm totals
calculated for tonight through Wednesday afternoon.

***From Previous Discussion***

Rainfall rates are favored to be low-to- moderate, thus no
widespread flooding impacts are anticipated. The highest rates are
expected for the coastal upslope areas along the Central Coast,
and this is the area most likely to see minor flooding impacts.
There is some level of uncertainty in the the exact location of
higher rainfall, thus there remains a small potential (10 percent)
of rainfall totals double that of forecast for Ventura and Los
Angeles Counties.

There are no significant snow or thunderstorms concerns with this
rather warm system. However some thunderstorm activity is
possible Monday morning for the coastal waters along Central
Coast.

The storm systems and cloud coverage will keep temperatures well
below normal for the next few days. There is the chance for a few
hours of sunshine today, followed by cloudy and wet conditions
Monday and Tuesday. Gusty south to southwest winds are expected
north of Point Conception Monday afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...24/226 PM.

Confidence remains on the low end for Thanksgiving into next
weekend, as a result of uncertainty in the trajectory of a weak
storm system that may impact the region. Thanksgiving Day there
is around a 10 percent chance of showers, followed by around a 20
percent chance of showers Friday into Saturday. In addition, there
is still the potential for light offshore flow Thursday into the
weekend, which would lead to overall warming and drying trends.
Temperatures are favored to gradually warm each day, with higher
chances for sunshine than earlier in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0742Z.

At 0525Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or an inversion.

Low confidence in nearly all TAFs, especially the coastal TAFs.

Another frontal system will bring increasing clouds to the area
tonight and Monday, with rain chances starting around 10Z north
of Point Conception, and during the morning hours further south.
MVFR CIGs lowering to IFR overnight are considered likely for the
northern sites. S of Pt. Conception, a stratus or stratocu field
may develop, with high uncertainty in timing of CIGs arrival and
flight categories. The timing of the low clouds and between flight
cats may vary +/- 1-3 hours, and cigs will bounce between
categories frequently.

High confidence KPMD and KWJF will remain VFR through the period.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the TAF. The timing of the
low clouds and between flight cats may vary +/- 1-3 hours, and
cigs will bounce between categories frequently. There is a 30%
chance of an east wind component reaching 6 kt from 15Z-22Z Mon.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in the TAF. VFR conds are
expected thru the TAF period, however there is a 20% chance of
periods of BKN015 cigs through the period.

&&

.MARINE...24/817 PM.

For the outer waters, high confidence in the current forecast.
Winds and seas will be below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels
thru this evening. For late tonight through Monday night, there is
a 60% chance of SCA level SE-S winds in the northern zones
(PZZ670/673), and a 20% chance in the southern zone (PZZ676). SCA
conds are not expected Tuesday through Friday night. A weak
frontal system will being rain and reduced visibilities to the
area late tonight through Tuesday night. A slight chance of
thunderstorms (15%-20%) with dangerous cloud to surface lightning
and locally Gale force winds and choppy seas will be possible on
Monday for the northern zones.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in
the current forecast. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels
thru tonight. There is a 60% chance of SCA level SE-S winds
Monday into Monday night. Winds and seas are then expected to
remain below SCA levels Tuesday through Friday night. A weak
frontal system will being rain and reduced visibilities to the
area late tonight through Tuesday night. A slight chance of
thunderstorms (15%-20%) with dangerous cloud to surface lightning
and locally Gale force winds and choppy seas will be possible on
Monday for the northern zones.

For the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, high confidence that
winds and seas will remain below SCA levels thru Friday night. A
weak frontal system will being rain and reduced visibilities to
the area Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 AM Monday to 3 AM PST
      Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 4 AM Monday to 3 AM PST
      Tuesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Schoenfeld/Smith
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Sirard/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox