615
FXUS66 KLOX 061731
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
931 AM PST Fri Mar 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...06/1224 AM.

A moderate Santa Ana wind event will start today and will
continue through Sunday. Temperatures will warm each day through
Sunday when widespread highs in the 80s are expected. No rain is
expected for the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...06/931 AM.

***UPDATE***

Peak winds gusts across the area this morning were 25 to 40 mph
across the favored coasts and valleys, and 50 to 65 mph across the
mountains. The Santa Ana winds have brought about a dramatic
drying and warming trend compared to 24 hours ago. No major
changes to the forecast.


***From Previous Discussion***

Moderate northerly gradients and upper level flow over the area
are bringing advisory level (35 to 50 mph) gusts to the mtns and
areas below N/S oriented passed and canyons. The gradients are
currently switching over to a more NE direction (East grads
increasing and N grads decreasing) and this will switch the winds
from north to NE (Santa Ana) direction. This switch in the sfc
pressure gradients will then align with an uptick in 850 mb winds
which also will change direction to the NE. This combination will
bring warning level wind gusts (60 to 65 mph) to the Santa Susana
Mountains, the Western San Gabriel Mountains (including the Highway
14 Corridor and the Eastern San Gabriel Mountains. Advisory level
winds will cover the rest of the Santa Ana wind corridor. Please
see the product LAXNPWLOX for all the details. Most areas will see
a few degrees of warming (perhaps not as much as one might expect
as there is quite a bit of cool air left over) and most max temps
across the csts/vlys will be in the 70s or 2 to 4 degrees above
normal.

The winds will peak on Saturday morning as the upper level support
from 850mb to 500mb all align to the NE and integrate with 5 to 6
mb of offshore flow from both the N and E at the sfc. The wind
advisories end at 300pm but looking at the gradient trends in the
afternoon and into Sunday it looks likely that the advisories will
need extending into Sunday. Look for a big warm up as the
offshore flow will combine with the sunny skies, rising hgts and
an overall warmer atmosphere to bring 4 to 8 degrees of warming to
the windier portions of LA/VTA counties and 2 to 4 degrees
elsewhere. Max temps in the Santa Ana area will be 10 to 15
degrees above normal with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Lower to mid 70s temperatures will occur over most of rest of the
cst/vlys.

The dry air and clear skies will team up to bring lower than
normal overnight temps to the wind sheltered areas Saturday Night.

On Sunday an upper low will retrograde to the SW and set up to the
SSW of San Diego this position will maintain the NE flow over the
area. Offshore flow will be equal to or even a little greater than
it was on Saturday and as mentioned above the wind advisories will
likely need extending into Sunday afternoon (There will only be
advisory level winds in the mtns as opposed to the warning level
gusts occuring today and Saturday. Continued offshore flow and a
lack of cool air advection into the far interior will lead to
warming across the entire area. Almost all cst/vly temps will be
in the 80s with 70s everywhere else save for the higher mtn
elevations. These max temps are mostly 12 to 18 degrees over
normal.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...06/248 AM.

The offshore push will only be half as strong as it was on Sunday.
The upper flow, while still from the NE, will also be much weaker.
There will be some morning canyon winds but they will not be
advisory levels. The weaker offshore flow will allow for an
earlier and stronger sea breeze and this along with less
compressional heat will create a 5 to 10 degree cooling trend
across the csts and vlys. Further inland there may be a few
degrees of warming as the hgts rise a few decameters.

The offshore flow will turn onshore on Tuesday. This could create
some coastal low clouds in the morning, but feel like the low
atmosphere will be too dry for stratus formation. There will be a
noticeable 3 to 6 degrees of cooling across the board with max
temps ending up in the 70s across the csts/vlys, which is still 3
to 6 degrees above normal.

Offshore flow from the north will develop Wednesday morning and
the onshore push from the west will weaken. At the same time a
ridge will push in from SW and hgts will rise to 586 dam. 3 to 6
degrees of warming will push most vly highs into the lower 80s.

The ridge intensifies next Thursday and there should be weak
offshore flow. This will bring 4 to 6 degrees of warming to the
csts and vlys pushing vly temps into the mid and upper 80s making
it the warmest day of the next 7.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1712Z.

At 16Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

For 18Z TAF Package, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all
sites. Moderate confidence in wind forecast for KCMA, OXR, KBUR,
and KVNY.

Light to occasionally moderate LLWS and turbulence is likely
over and near mountainous terrain across Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties. Most likely 07/06Z to 07/18Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. CAVU conditions are expected.
There is a 30% chance of N-NE cross winds reaching 20 kts after
07/14Z. Easterly wind component should remain below 8 kts thru
07/18Z. Then, a 30% chance thereafter.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU conditions through the period.
Moderate confidence in wind forecast. Light to occasionally
moderate turbulence will be possible on approach and departure.

&&

.MARINE...06/731 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through this evening, high confidence in
combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas.
For Saturday, there is a 60-70% chance of SCA level northeast
winds across PZZ676 with high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels for PZZ670/673. For Sunday, moderate
chance of SCA winds south of Point Conception in the evening. For
Monday and Tuesday, high confidence in a combination of SCA level
winds and seas with a 30-40% chance of GALE force winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Monday and Tuesday, there is a 30-50% chance of a combination of
SCA level winds and seas.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high
confidence in SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to
Santa Monica, as well as the San Pedro Channel, during the late
night through early afternoon hours while winds and seas remain
near or below SCA levels elsewhere. Additionally, there is a
20-30% chance of GALE FORCE winds from Point Mugu to Malibu late
tonight through Saturday morning. For Monday through Tuesday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

High confidence in ENE winds of 10-15 kts impacting Avalon Harbor
this morning and Saturday morning with 20% chance of winds
reaching 25 kts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for
      zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>374-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday
      for zones 375-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
      zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...RAT/Black
SYNOPSIS...RS/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox