946
FXUS66 KLOX 101736
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1036 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2026

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...10/231 AM.

Extreme heat and humidity will continue today with a high risk
for heat illness. Cooling is on tap for Friday and especially
Saturday with max temps returning to normal. Marine layer clouds
will likely return .

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...10/814 AM.

***UPDATE***

The forecast remains on track and we have once again begun the day
with very warm temperatures, in fact, most of the populated ares
of LA and Ventura counties saw minimum temps reach the 70s, with
some isolated areas remaining in the 80s... The Central Coast saw
lows in the mi to high 60s. The still elevated dewpoint temps
certainly played a role in keeping it hot and humid overnight.

The forecast remains on track with a "less hot" day compared to
yesterday, but it will still be very hot and muggy today as our
Extreme Heat Warnings continue through tonight. The only exception
to this "cooling" trend will be in the mountains and interior,
where temps may be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday.

The other aspect of the forecast that requires attention this
morning is the addition of a slight chance of thunderstorms over
the interior mountains this afternoon, with best chance over the
Eastern San Gabriels and northern Ventura County mountains.
Chances are lower than yesterday and there isn`t much of any
lifting mechanism aside from the hot air and terrain, so really
expecting this potential to be focused just in the mountains.
With any thunderstorm that form, the air is juicy enough to
produce some brief, heavy downpours along with gusty winds and
lightning.


***From Previous Discussion***

Wednesday was the peak of the heat and there will be cooler
conditions today but not enough cooling to prevent heat related
danger and Heat Warnings will continue through this evening.

The upper high over AZ will weaken through the day and by
afternoon hgts will fall to 592 dam. More importantly (at least
for the csts/vlys) The offshore flow in the morning will be much
weaker and will quickly turn onshore by late morning and then
increase through the afternoon. These onshore trends will bring an
earlier arrival of the sea breeze and also a strong one. PWATs
unfortunately will remain well above normal.

The combination of falling hgts and better onshore flow will bring
4 to 8 locally 10 degrees of cooling to the csts and vlys. The
mtns and interior may see a degree or two of warming. Max temps,
however, will remain 10 to 15 degrees over normal and this along
with overnight lows only in the 70s and lower 80s for many
locations will keep the very high heat risk going for one more
day.

On Friday the ridge flattens out in response to an upper low
moving into the PACNW and hgts will fall another 2 dam to 590 dam.
Onshore flow will increase by another 1 to 2 mb. This combination
will lead to another 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees of cooling across
the board including the interior. This additional cooling will
lower most max temps to 3 to 6 degrees above normal. The other
good news for Friday will be a noticeable drop in humidities as
PWs fall to 1.4 inches over srn LA county and a very pleasant .70
over SLO county. This cooling and drying should eliminate the
need for any extension of the heat products.

The continued onshore flow should bring some low clouds back to
the area Saturday morning esp across the Central Coast. Another 3
to 6 degrees of cooling will bring max temps down to normal
values.

Lastly advisory-level Sundowners are likely every evening starting
tonight. The strongest gusts will be west of Isla Vista.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...10/231 AM.

A refreshing return to benign srn CA weather is set for the xtnd
period. Fairly flat and zonal flow will stream over the top of
SoCal through the period and hgts will mostly range from 586 dam
to 588 dam. At the sfc there will be weak to moderate onshore flow
in the E/W direction. The N/S gradinets will feature weak offshore
flow in the mornings and weak onshore flow in the afternoons.

There will be some morning low clouds each day with the greatest
coverage across the Central Coast. Skies, otherwise, will be
mostly clear.

Most areas will cool through Tuesday and Tuesday`s highs will be
in the 70s across the csts and only lower to mid 80s across the
vlys. These temps are mostly 5 to 10 degrees blo normal.

 No significant wind issues are expected, although there will be
the usual gusty southwesterly winds each afternoon across the
mountains and deserts and the typical near advisory level evening
gusts across the SW corner of SBA county.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1733Z.

At 1645Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2300 ft with a temperature of 30 C.

High confidence in VFR conditions for all sites except for
KSMX (60% chc of LIFR), KSBP & KLGB (30% chc of LIFR) from
Fri 11/10Z-16Z.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF. There is a 30% chance that
east wind component reaches 8 kts from Fri 11/09Z-17Z.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...10/909 AM.

Conditions are expected to become increasingly hazardous
across the outer waters into the weekend. A Gale Watch
(50-60% chc) has been issued for PZZ676/673 Saturday evening
into Monday morning. The coastal Jet may develop across PZZ670
Saturday evening but confidence is too low if winds will reach
Gale strength at this time. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions
are expected to reach into the nearshore waters along the Central
Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel at times (especially during
afternoon/eve hours).

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 38-87-88-340>358-362-366>375-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through this evening for
      zones 87-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM PDT
      Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 11
      PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      AM PDT Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT Saturday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Saturday evening through Monday
      morning for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewis/Rorke
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox