330
FXUS66 KLOX 110949
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
249 AM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...11/1215 AM.

There will be a slow cooling trend through Sunday. Despite the
cooling most max temps will remain above normal through Sunday.
Marine layer stratus and fog will return to most beaches today,
then will become more widespread with increasing inland extent
Friday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...11/1234 AM.

Srn CA will be under a Cull area for the short term with hgts
around 589 dam. At the sfc there will be mdt to stg onshore flow
both to the N and the E.

Look for the marine layer stratus to increase in coverage and
duration through the period with many beaches seeing slow to no
clearing on Friday and Saturday.

Most max temps will cool a few degrees today (The far interior
will be the exception and will warm a degree or two), but most of
SLO county will see double digit cooling as the offshore flow that
warmed the area ydy will not occur today. Look for 2 to 3 more
degrees of cooling Friday as the marine layer expands and the
onshore push increases. Saturday will see little change in
temperatures. Despite all of this cooling almost all max temps
will remain above normal through the period with only the beaches
seeing normal or slightly blo normal temps. In general the csts
will see max temps in the 70s and lower 80s, while the vlys will
warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s.

The one fly in the forecast ointment comes from the SW flow around
an upper high centered over nrn Mexico. This flow pattern will
bring some mid level monsoon moisture up into Srn CA. PWAT may
climb to near 1 inch later Friday. At this time it looks like the
bulk of the moisture and associated afternoon convection will be
just south of LA County in Orange County and esp San Diego
County. There is, however, a 10 percent chc that enough moisture
will creep upward to bring TSTMs to the LA county mtns.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...11/247 AM.

Very June like conditions on tap for the weekend and early next
week. Weak high pressure will be overhead with hgts near 591 dam.
The mdt-stg onshore flow will continue both to the north and east.
This will bring night through morning low clouds and fog to almost
all of the coasts and many of the vlys every day.

Look for little or no change in temps on Saturday. On Sunday most
areas will cool a few degrees. There will not be much day to day
change in temps early next week. Max temps will be near or even a
degree or two blo normal across the csts and vlys due to the
marine layer and strong onshore flow. The mtns and far interior,
however, will end up 5 to 10 degrees above normal due to the
higher than normal hgts.

Like Friday, there is a small (5 percent) chance for a shower or
thunderstorm over the eastern San Gabriel Mountains Saturday
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.AVIATION...11/0540Z.

At 0501Z at KLAX, the marine layer was about 1800 ft deep. The
inversion top was at 3300 ft with a maximum temperature of 23 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KPMD and KWJF.

Low confidence in TAFs for KSBP, and KSMX. There is a 20-50%
chance for low clouds below 1000 feet and vsbys in BR/FG at each
site after 10Z, highest KSMX. If clouds arrive, VLIFR to LIFR
conds are most likely min flight cat due to shallow marine layer.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs, with high confidence in
low clouds tonight through Thursday morning (except moderate
KBUR/KVNY). Lower confidence in min flight cat, but IFR to MVFR
most likely. Arrival times may be off +/- 2 hours.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. High confidence in low clouds
returning +/- 2 hours from forecast. Lower confidence in cig
heights, with a 30% chance OVC007-009. Vsbys likely 6SM or
higher, but there is a 25-30% chance for 5SM or lower after 10Z.
Any east wind component is expect to be less than 8 kt.

KBUR... Moderate confidence in TAF. Moderate confidence in low
clouds arriving +/- 2 hours from forecast. Lower confidence in
cig heights, with a 20% chance of OVC004 cigs and vsbys 5SM.

&&

.MARINE...11/249 AM.

Good confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas over
PZZ670 and PZZ673, with 10 foot seas lingering through this morning.
Southerly winds 10-20 knots are likely early today near Point
Conception, expanding north through this afternoon. Then
conditions are expected to be relatively mild through early next
week for much of the coastal waters.

West to northwest wind gusts 15-20 knots (locally 25 knots) will
be common each afternoon Friday and through at least early next
week across the nearshore waters south of Point Conception
(including the Santa Barbara Channel, San Pedro Channel, and Santa
Monica Bay).

&&

.BEACHES...10/201 PM.

The long period southerly swell responsible for large and
hazardous surf will continue into Thursday, although slightly
lower wave heights and periods are expected tomorrow. A relative
lull between swells is expected over the weekend, then another
long period southerly swell from the Souhtern Hemisphere is
forecast to arrive early next week, from a slightly more southwest
direction (roughly 220 degrees). Additionally, large tides near
7.5 feet are predicted for Saturday through Tuesday. Although next
weeks southerly swell appears to have smaller significant eave
heights, the combination of the longer period swell and the high
tides may lead to minor to locally moderate coastal flooding for
south exposed coasts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for
      zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through this evening for
      zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning
      for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Velez
MARINE...Velez
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Phillips/Fewkes

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox