830
FXUS66 KLOX 241820
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1120 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...24/907 AM.

Temperatures today will be on the cool side, with very extensive
low clouds this morning. Sunday through mid next week,
temperatures will be slightly below normal for most areas, and
marine layer low clouds and fog will continue during the night to
morning hours. Late next week conditions are likely to trend
warmer once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...24/906 AM.

***UPDATE***

The marine inversion this morning ranged from around 2200 ft deep
at VBG to around 3800 ft deep at LAX. Extensive low clouds
covered the coast, vlys and lower coastal slopes, and were slow to
burn off. The low clouds should finally start to clear back
toward the coast by late this morning, but should linger along
some coastal areas thru the afternoon. Stratocu may linger in some
of the L.A./VTU County vlys as well for partly cloudy skies at
times. Otherwise and elsewhere, mostly sunny skies can be expected
thru the afternoon. Breezy to gusty S to W winds will prevail
this afternoon, strongest in the Antelope Vly and adjacent
foothills.

Temps today are forecast to be as much as 6-12 deg below seasonal
norms in many areas, but only slightly above normal for the L.A.
County coast. High in the warmest inland coast, vlys and foothills
are expected to be in the 70s to around 80, except lower 80s in
the Antelope Vly.

***From Previous Discussion***

A couple degrees of warming is expected for Sunday, mainly away
from the beaches, as a result of a small pop up ridge. Monday
another weak trough will cause some inland temperatures to fall a
few degrees, however overall changes each day will be rather
minimal.

Strong onshore flow is expected to continue each day, and thus a
typical May Gray pattern is expected across the beaches and
coastal plains and valleys. This strong seabreeze will maintain
consistently cool temperatures for the coasts. Areas of gusty
onshore winds will continue, especially across the Antelope Valley
and adjacent foothills where gusts may reach advisory level
Sunday evening. Northwesterly Sundowner Winds across southwestern
Santa Barbara County will last into this morning with local gusts
to 40 mph near Gaviota. These winds are likely pick up again in
the evenings each day, and may next reach advisory level Sunday
and Monday nights.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...24/329 AM.

Tuesday and Wednesday will see little changes each day, with near
normal temperatures, mostly in the 70s near the coast and
reaching the 80s further inland. A modest warming trend is likely
to start on Thursday with daytime highs most likely to peak on
Friday and remain elevated into the weekend. There is still high
uncertainty for the forecast late next week, as an unpredictable
cutoff low is favored to stall to the south of SoCal. This upper
level low is likely to dampen the impacts of the ridge of high
pressure that is expected to build over the western US. Based on
the latest ensembles and cluster analysis, temperatures around 6
to 12 degrees above normal are favored for the warm spell. However
there is around a 10-15 percent chance of temperatures reaching
10 to 20 degrees above normal on Friday, which may result in some
heat products being issued.

Onshore flow is expected to continue each day, which will sustain
continued overnight to morning low clouds and fog for the coasts
and valleys. There is some indication the onshore surface
pressure gradient will be slightly weaker later in the week, which
would contribute to warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1819Z.

At 1659Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3700 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was around 4900 feet with a temperature of 12 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 30% chance of
IFR/MVFR cigs at KPRB from 12Z to 16Z Sun. There is a 30-40%
chance of IFR conds and a 15% chance of LIFR conds from 03Z to 14Z
Sun. Slightly higher chances of LIFR conds at KSMX for same
timeframe. Timing of cig/vsby restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours
and flight cats off by one or two.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance MVFR
cigs prevail through period, but intermittent VFR conds are more
likely from 20Z Sat to 06Z Sun - and beyond 20Z Mon. There is a
15% chance east wind component exceeds 6 kt from 13Z to 16Z Sun.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Arrival of cigs tonight
may be off +/- 2 hours.

&&

.MARINE...24/821 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level winds through Memorial Day weekend and into early
Tuesday, with brief lulls possible each morning. Seas are expected
to remain below SCA criteria through mid-week. However, there
could be localized SCA level seas at times, with highest chances
this morning and Monday.

For the Inner Waters along the Central Coast, moderate confidence
in SCA winds each afternoon and evening through Memorial Day
Weekend (60-80% chance). Seas are expected to remain below SCA
levels through mid-week.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA
level winds across the western and southern portions of the
Channel, including the waters around the Channel Islands, each
afternoon and evening over the remainder of Memorial Day Weekend.
There is a 20% chance for SCA level winds reaching the Ventura
County coastline from the Ventura Harbor to Point Mugu each day.

For the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts,
high confidence in conditions remaining below advisory levels
this weekend. Local gusts up to 20 kt may occur in the afternoon
through evenings today through Monday near Malibu, through the San
Pedro Channel, and in the far western portion of the zone.

&&

.BEACHES...24/736 AM.

A long period south-southwest swell will bring elevated surf
conditions up to 6 feet along with a high risk for hazardous rip
currents for some south facing beaches over Memorial Day weekend.
Considering the expected high beach attendance for the holiday,
ocean rescues may be numerous. If you plan on swimming in the
ocean, be sure to swim near an occupied lifeguard tower.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Monday night
      for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld/Sirard
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Lewis/Black
BEACHES...Black
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld/Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox