230
FXUS66 KLOX 221736
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1036 AM PDT Wed Jul 22 2026

CORRECTED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...22/913 AM.

Hotter than normal conditions will continue through at least
early next week, especially starting Thursday. The hot daytime
and warm night conditions will bring elevated risks for heat
illness. Thursday through Sunday will generally be the hottest of
the next seven days. Gusty north winds will affect some areas
through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...22/922 AM.

***UPDATE***

Welcome back marine layer. Low clouds with some fog returned this
morning, far more robustly than anticipated. Several areas had
trace amounts of drizzle and wet roads. This will certainly dampen
the expected heating for the coastal and adjacent valley areas
today, with some areas at or below yesterdays temperatures
(especially the Central Coast which is trending more than 10
degrees cooler than 24 hours ago). Everything is still pointing
to far less marine layer tomorrow and a significant bump up in
temperatures. The mountains and interior valleys on the other hand
are already trending up and are on track to start the heat today.
Decided to not touch the current Heat Advisories and Warnings
despite the changes today, but will emphasize the widespread ramp
up focused more for tomorrow than today. Gusty Sundowner winds are
on track for tonight, with the SBA-SMX surface pressure gradient
already over -3 millibars and several projections having it
peaking around -5 millibars tonight, which is in the upper tier of
gradient strengths. Wind Advisories are in place. Similar winds
will affect some mountain areas as well, especially the I-5
Corridor, but they look a touch under Wind Advisory levels.

***From Previous Discussion***

Last evening brought a rapidly expanding fast moving marine layer
stratus deck first to the Central Coast, then down through the SBA
channel to southern SBA county and the Ventura cst and vlys. The
clouds then pushed into LA county just before mid night. This
unusual occurrence was brought about by an interesting
interaction between the SW flow around the remnant core of Elida
and a near 7 mb onshore push to the east.

Today marks the start of a long duration heat wave. A heat
advisory is in effect for much of the forecast areas from today
through Monday evening. Please see the product LAXNPWLOX for
details. Citizens are urged to take precautions to avoid heat
related illness during this time.

There will be 1 to 2 mb of offshore trends in the morning and
this weakened onshore flow should allow for decently quick and
complete clearing leave totally sunny skies by late morning. The
sunny afternoon skies, slightly weaker onshore flow and 594 dam
hgts (3 dam higher than normal) will all combine to make today a
very warm day. Most areas away from the cst will see 3 to 6
degrees of warming (The mega exception to this will be the Central
Coast where the return to onshore flow will bring 8 to 10 degrees
of cooling). The inland coastal areas will reach the lower 90s,
the vlys will sizzle with temps from 95 to 105 and the lower
elevation mtns and far interior will all see highs from 100 to 105
degrees. Max temps (even those on the Central Coast) will be 5 to
10 degrees over normal today.

1 or 2 degrees of warming is possible both Thursday and Friday as
the upper high pushes to the west and hgts remain at 594 dam.
There may be some cooling at random coastal sites depending on how
much the onshore flow fluctuates. The warmest vly locations will
likely see 107 degree readings with all the rest of the vlys
seeing highs no lower than the upper 90s.

Two more items will compound the heat dangers. The overnight lows
will be well above normal thru the period and this will not allow
people`s body`s to recover from the days heat in houses without
AC. Also due to the tropical systems passing to the west and the
above normal sea sfc temperatures there will be higher than normal
humidities through period. These higher humidities will stifle the
body;s ability to cool through sweating.

There will be a little wind to deal with as well, mainly over
southern Santa Barbara County, the I-5 Corridor, and the western
Antelope Valley today through Friday Night. Look for northwesterly
to north gusts of 30 to 50 mph in those areas. Advisory level
gusts are likely across the southwest portion of Santa Barbara
County.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...22/252 AM.

The upper high will sit atop of the four corners region through
Monday and then is forecast to shift a little to the east on
Tuesday. Hgts will remain above normal - between 594 dam and 596
dam. The onshore flow will increase through the period. Not the
best confidence in the low cloud forecast as the warm sea sfc
temps and mid level monsoon moisture tend to suppress marine
layer development. The monsoon push will likely bring some mtn
build up in the afternoon over the mtns as well as low but not
zero chc of convection. The the onshore flow will bring a slight
cooling trend to the csts and some vlys but max and min temps will
remain well above normal and the heat advisories will continue
through Monday. By Tuesday the shift of the upper high and strong
onshore flow to the east should bring enough cooling to allow the
advisories to expire.

Long range mdls still suggest another heat event later next week.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1735Z.

At 1702Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3100 ft with a max temperature of 24 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, & KVNY.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of prevailing
groups may be off +/- 2 hours. 20% chance of LIFR/IFR CIGs at
KPRB & KLGB from 23/10Z-16Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Clearing of MVFR CIGs should
occur by 22/19Z. VFR conditions expected thereafter. 20% chance
of LIFR/IFR CIGs from 23/10Z-16Z. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions with no wind issues
expected.

&&

.MARINE...22/738 AM.

Widespread Small Craft Advisory (SCA) NW winds will develop
this afternoon and will likely continue through the weekend
across the Outer Waters. Seas will approach 10 ft starting
Thursday. Local gusts may reach 35 kt across the southern
portion of the Santa Barbara Channel and PZZ676 this evening.
Will be watching trends in observations and guidance this
morning - there is a bit of low-mid level support that would
suggests more widespread gusts to 35 kt across PZZ676. Thus,
a last minute GALE Warning may be needed for this evening.
30% chance of GALE Force winds across the Outer Waters Thursday
afternoon/eve.

&&

.BEACHES...22/721 AM.

A long period, southern hemisphere swell will arrive later this
week and will add to the continuing swell from Hurricane Fausto.
This will create hazardous Beach conditions Friday into the
weekend. Additional Beach Hazard Statements and/or advisories
will likely be needed during this timeframe.

Guidance suggests the Eastern Pacific will likely remain active
over the next couple of weeks which could result in additional
southerly swells impacting Southern California`s coastline.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for
      zones 38-88-342>345-348-351>353-355>358-368>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for
      zones 349-350. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT
      Thursday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM
      PDT Monday for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 5 PM
      PDT Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Thursday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/RK
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
BEACHES...Black
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox