988
FXUS66 KLOX 042200
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
200 PM PST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...04/311 AM.

Broad troughing over the eastern Pacific Ocean will keep a cooler
than normal weather pattern in place through Thursday. An
atmospheric river type system in northern California will slowly
move southward into San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties
through Wednesday night, weakening as it moves down the state. A
warming trend will develop for late week as high pressure aloft
builds in.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...04/159 PM.

A progressive trough pushing into northern California will push a
rapidly weakening cold front through the region tonight into
Wednesday with light rain showers likely for coastal areas to
coastal ranges of San Luis Obispo County with lower chances
extending into north and western Santa Barbara County. Expect an
increase in onshore winds although still likely sub-advisory for
these counties and interior mountains and desert of Ventura and
Los Angeles Counties by Wednesday. A rapidly deepening marine
layer may support drizzle just about anywhere across all coasts
and valleys tonight into Wednesday morning with wet roadways
possible for south facing slopes or foothills areas in particular.

Thursday through Friday or Saturday, a moderate northerly
gradient may support Advisory level winds for interior mountains,
potentially extending into the Santa Ynez range and adjacent
foothills. The offshore trends and a decrease in cloud cover,
especially away from the coast and far interior mountains, will
initiate a warming trend. A few north mountain slope showers or
drizzle and fog is possible Thursday morning, including across the
I-5 corridor near the Grapevine.

Also of note, above normal surf and tides will lead to increased
hazards at the coast Thursday and Friday. Please see the Beaches
section below or the Coastal Flood Advisory or High Surf Advisory
for details.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...04/159 PM.

Guidance is trending towards a strong ridge for this time of
year, although we have less confidence in how much, if any,
offshore flow we see this weekend. If weak offshore flow does
occur, widespread highs in the 80s to low 90s would be likely for
coastal valleys, extending into some interior coastal areas.

Once the ridge is dislodged (this often takes longer than
anticipated), we will likely see a return to an active and wet
pattern sometime in the middle to late part of next week. We have
a 50-70 percent chance of above normal precipitation Monday
through Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1745Z.

At 1701Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1700 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2900 feet with a temperature of 18 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KWJF and KPMD.

Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Southerly winds
will impact terminals today. For all coastal sites, MVFR cigs may
frequently move in and out of the area today, but high confidence
in IFR to MVFR conds from this evening through the end of the
period. Arrival of cigs tonight may be off +/- 4 hours. There is a
30% chance for LIFR conds at KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, KBUR, and KVNY
after 03Z when cigs are present.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance cigs do
not clear today. Otherwise, MVFR cigs may bounce in and out until
a more uniform return tonight (+/- 3 hours from TAF). There is a
20% chance for the east wind component to reach 8 knots from 10Z
to 18Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence TAF. High confidence in arrival of IFR
to MVFR low clouds between 04Z and 12Z. There is a 30% chance for
LIFR conds at some point while cigs are present, best chance until
16Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/157 PM.

High confidence in a combination of winds and seas reaching Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) levels as early as late tonight across the
northern portion of the coastal waters then expanding south and
east through the day. SCA conditions will continue into at least
Saturday night. A moderate to long period NW swell will enter the
region Wednesday late morning, with seas increasing to 12 to 16
feet across the outer waters and nearshore waters along the
Central Coast, peaking Thursday morning through the evening. Wave
heights will decrease some Friday, but will remain large into at
least Saturday with a chance seas will remain above 10 feet into
Sunday.

Seas across the inner waters south of Point Conception will
rapidly increase to 6-10 feet Wednesday night into Thursday
morning and peaking Thursday afternoon through late night.
Highest seas in the Santa Barbara Channel. NW winds of 20-30 knots
will be common across the entire Santa Barbara Channel Thursday
afternoon through evening. Localized Gale Force gusts between up
to 35 knots may occur across the far western portion of the
Channel during the same timeframe. High confidence in conditions
improving Friday into the weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...04/146 PM.

Coastal Flood Advisories, High Surf Advisories, and a Beach
Hazards Statement have been issued across ALL coastal areas
due to the high astronomical tides and incoming west-northwest
swell. Refer to the CFW and SRF for details.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 7 PM Wednesday to 6 PM PST
      Friday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 4 AM Thursday to 2 PM
      PST Friday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from midnight Wednesday night to
      6 PM PST Friday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 3 PM PST
      Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox