187
FXUS66 KLOX 302110
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
210 PM PDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...30/152 PM.

Fairly steady conditions to continue through early next week with
temperatures around normal with coastal low clouds and fog. The
highest temperatures will be over the weekend with highs near 100
in the warmest valleys and deserts. Seasonally gusty southwest to
northwest winds will also continue each day over the interior
areas and southwest Santa Barbara County.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...30/152 PM.

Most of the attention today has been on the ongoing tsunami,
which is still showing itself on our tide gauges but resulting in
little if any appreciable impact. The tsunami short-duration
tidal swings will continue for the next few days, but will be
gradually decreasing in magnitude. All the Tsunami Advisories will
likely be cancelled soon, if they have not been already.

The very persistent upper level low off the Aleutian Islands,
which has been the main driver of our cooler than normal July,
will change very little through Tuesday. High pressure currently
centered over New Mexico will stay put as well through Tuesday,
except a brief wobble into Arizona over the weekend. As a result,
expecting very little change through Friday, with temperatures
just below normal and a typical coastal marine layer. Over the
weekend, valley and mountain temperatures will rise a few degrees
to generally around normal, which includes highs near 100 degrees
in the warmest valleys and deserts.

Winds will be generally what we would expect for this time of
year, with breezy southwest to northwest winds over the interior
areas and Central Coast. This includes southwest Santa Barbara
County where moderate Sundowner winds will form each evening, with
tonight likely the strongest of the next few days (Wind Advisory
posted).

Lastly, some dense fog issues are likely, especially over the
weekend on the Central Coast.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...30/209 PM.

Temperatures will fall a few degrees from the weekend through
Tuesday, but nothing too significant. Ensemble projections are
pretty locked for the high pressure area that is currently
centered over New Mexico, to rapidly strengthen and expand
westward. Onshore flow should also weaken at the same time. As a
result, looking for a significant warm up next week from Wednesday
through Saturday. Right now, the peak is looking to be Thursday
and Friday, when the majority of the ensembles are showing
temperatures 10+ degrees above normal. This is still many days
out so stay tuned on more details.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1657Z.

At 1615Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 110 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was around 4000 feet with a temperature of
22 C.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in CAVU conditions for KBUR,
KVNY, KWJF and KPMD.

For KSBA and KPRB, there is a 20% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions
10Z-16Z.

For other sites, moderate confidence in 18Z TAFs as timing of
flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. No significant
easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...30/1210 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Tonight through Thursday night, high confidence in Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds continuing. For Friday through
Monday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds continuing
with a 40-50% chance of SCA level seas.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence
in SCA level winds. For Thursday through Monday, there is a
40-60% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening
hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For the western half of the Santa
Barbara Channel, high confidence in SCA level winds this evening
with a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds Thursday through Monday,
mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere
across the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below SCA levels through Monday.

The lingering effects of the tsunami will continue across the
coastal waters through tonight with strong currents likely.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Kittell
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox