761
FXUS66 KLOX 172338
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
438 PM PDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...17/107 PM.

There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms through
Saturday across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, with the best
chance on Friday across the San Gabriel Mountains and Antelope
Valley. Otherwise, night through morning low clouds and patchy fog
will continue for the coasts and most valleys, with below normal
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...17/239 PM.

A low pressure center south of SoCal is shuttling monsoonal
moisture into the region from the east, resulting in the high
clouds now streaming into Los Angeles County. PWATs are currently
over 1.25 inches at San Bernardino and around 1.75 inches at
Riverside, which is indicative of the moisture field upstream of
LA County.

This afternoon and evening there is a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms focused over the San Gabriel Mountains. Late
tonight into Friday morning, a line of vorticity associated with
the low will yield a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
across all of LA County and much of Ventura County. The time
period of most concern for hazards will be Friday afternoon, when
there is currently a 20-30 percent chance focused over the San
Gabriel Mountains, Antelope Valley, and Ventura County Mountains,
and a very slight chance to extend into the nearby valleys.
Thunderstorms will again be possible Saturday afternoon and
evening for the eastern San Gabriel Mountains and Antelope
Valley.

Dry lightning fire starts and gusty potentially -damaging winds
will be the most likely hazards, if a storm were to form. Most
mositure will be fairly elevated, thus there is a smaller chance
of heavy downpour and localized flooding overall, with the
greatest risk present for the higher terrain Friday afternoon.

Temperatures will remain mild, largely a few degrees below normal
for this time of year. However, some coastal areas, where the
monsoonal mositure may clear out the marine layer clouds, may be
warmer than typical over the next couple days.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...17/135 PM.

Quiet weather is expected next week with few impacts.
Below normal temperatures are forecast, though a gradual warming
trend possible starting on Thursday. The cooler temperatures will
be caused by a period of weak troughing for the region as a low pressure
system drifts south from the Pacific Northwest to off the coast
of far northern California. Onshore surface pressure gradients
will maintain marine layer overnight clouds and fog across the
coasts and some valleys, as well on gusty southwest to west winds
across interior areas. Winds will be the strongest across the
Antelope Valley and adjacent foothills, and the Highway 14
corridor, however all winds are likely to remain below Advisory
level.

&&

.AVIATION...17/2337Z.

At 2240Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of
the marine inversion was at 2800 feet with a temperature of 25 C.

For 00Z TAF package, high confidence in KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and
KWJF.

For other coastal/valley TAFs, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF.
Timing of return of CIG/VSBY restrictions could be +/- 2 hours of
current forecasts. There is a 20% chance of LIFR conds at KPRB
from 10Z to 15Z Fri.

Lowest confidence for sites (KSMO, KLAX, KLGB): There is a 40%
chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop tonight due to
incoming mid-level moisture.

There is a chance of TSTMs this evening over the LA county
mountains, with a slight chance of TSTMs tonight/Friday morning
across all of Ventura and LA counties. Gusty downburst winds as
well as lightning will be the main potential hazards.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 40%
chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop tonight. There is
a 10-15% chance of TSTMs 10Z-20Z. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of
IFR conditions 08Z-16Z. Also, there is a 10-15% chance of TSTMs
10Z-20Z.

&&

.MARINE...17/1221 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Through Friday morning, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Friday
afternoon through Tuesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level
winds, with the best chances across PZZ673/676.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through Friday morning, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Friday afternoon through Tuesday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA
level winds during the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through Saturday morning, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. From
Saturday afternoon through Tuesday, there is a 20% chance of SCA
level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel
in the afternoon/evening hours, with conditions remaining below
SCA levels elsewhere.

There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms tonight and Friday
morning for the coastal waters south of the Channel Islands. Main
threats with any storms will be gusty outflow winds, locally rough
seas and dangerous cloud-to-surface lightning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT
      Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox