819
FXUS66 KLOX 091615
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
915 AM PDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Updated Short Term and Marine Sections

.SYNOPSIS...09/521 AM.

A warming trend is expected today and Wednesday, and highs will
run 5 to 10 degrees above normal midweek through the weekend.
Patchy low clouds and fog will impact some beaches and coastal
valleys, but will likely burn off by mid morning. Breezy northwest
winds are expected along the Central Coast this afternoon and
gusty conditions are expected across southwestern Santa Barbara
County this evening into tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...09/903 AM.

***UPDATE***

Northerly winds reached advisory levels across the western Santa
Ynez Range and the northern LA County mountains overnight and into
this morning. Slightly stronger winds are expected this afternoon
through tomorrow morning, and wind advisories are in place.

This northerly winds played a role in keeping most of the marine
layer from reaching land this morning south of Point Conception.
Expected even less marine layer cloud coverage tonight into
Wednesday morning, with about a 50% chance of low clouds reaching
the southern half of the LA Basin.

We`re on track for at least a few degrees of warming across much
of the region today, and still on track for a more significant
increase tomorrow thanks to pressure gradients trending offshore
while upper level ridging continues to build in.

***From Previous Discussion***

Today the synoptic pattern will shift, as the trough of low
pressure exits the region making way for high pressure to build.
Temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer today compared to
yesterday (mid 70s to mid 80s common), and marine layer clouds
will struggle to form, particularly for southern Santa Barbara
County and Ventura County. Sundowner Winds are expected to
redevelop this evening into tonight across southwestern Santa
Barbara County, in addition to northwest winds across the I-5
Corridor. Wind Advisories will likely be issued for the
aforementioned areas. This afternoon the strong northwest flow
will also produce gusty but sub-advisory conditions along the
beaches of the Central Coast.

By Wednesday morning, surface pressure gradients will become
moderately offshore from the northeast across San Luis Obispo and
Santa Barbara Counties (gusts around 25-40 mph across the
mountains), which will reduce marine layer clouds and lead to a
noticeable spike in temperatures for northern areas. Temperatures
will be warmest across San Luis Obispo County, where highs between
80-90 will be common at the coast, and around 100 degrees is
expected at Paso Robles. Much weaker offshore flow is expected for
Ventura and Los Angeles Counties on Wednesday, but this will
still cause warming temperatures and a reduction in morning cloud
coverage. There continues to be a 20 percent chance of a Heat
Advisory being needed for some coast/valley areas, most likely the
southern Salinas (Paso Robles), Santa Clarita, and the western
San Fernando Valleys. Additionally, with any clouds that do form
there will be a chance of dense fog due to the high pressure
aloft. Thursday offshore flow (if any) will be weaker and daytime
highs will cool by a few degrees across the coasts and valleys and
remain similar for inland desert areas.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...09/518 AM.

Friday through the weekend there will be minimal temperature
changes each day, followed by very minor cooling early next week.
The synoptic pattern favors persistent high pressure and onshore
flow at the surface, which will result in minor day to day
chances. Highs through the weekend will be around 5 to 10 degrees
above normal for this time of year, with minor to moderate
HeatRisk impacts for much of the region. Morning low clouds and
sometimes dense fog will occur across the beaches and coastal
valleys, but will struggle to make it to the inland valleys and
foothills. Ensembles still hint at at elevated mid-level moisture
shuttling into the region from the southeast as early as Thursday
afternoon and at least through the weekend. This will result in a
small (~5 percent) chance of a thunderstorm occuring over the San
Gabriel Mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...09/1227Z.

At 1206Z at KLAX, the marine layer was about 1600 ft deep. The
inversion top was at 3400 ft with a maximum temperature of 17 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF, but winds may be
off by 5 kt at times.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of flight category
changes may be off +/- 3 hours. Most cigs that form will be will
be IFR- MVFR, except for LIFR at KSMX. There is a 20-30% chance of
MVFR cigs at KSMO, KLAX, KOXR, and KCMA between 13Z-17Z Tue, and
there is a 40% chance that no cigs develop this morning at KSBP
and KLGB.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecast, and there is a
30% chance of BKN015 cigs between 13Z-17Z Tue. Any east wind
component is expect to be less than 6 kt.

KBUR... High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...09/905 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. High confidence in a combination of Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas through Wednesday. Localized
gale force gusts will be possible over all of the outer waters
late this afternoon and early evening, with a 30% chance that a
Gale Warning will be needed. Otherwise, SCA winds are likely to
persist through Wednesday night, with much weaker winds Thursday
through Saturday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, SCA level wind
are expected, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours, with
seas near or above SCA levels. Lighter winds are likely during the
morning hours, then increasing again each afternoon. Thursday
through Saturday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. There is a 40% chance for isolated
Gale force gusts over the west portion of PZZ650. For a majority
of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels through Friday. The exception will be
the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, with a SCA in
effect through late tonight. Light winds are then expected
Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...09/340 AM.

A long period south swell will move through the waters Today
through Thursday, with swell height building to 3 feet nearshore.
Periods will initially be 21 seconds, decreasing to 15 seconds by
Thursday. Surf is forecast to build to 3 to 6 feet with local
sets to 7 feet along south facing shores of Los Angeles and
Ventura Counties. There is a chance of more widespread surf of 4
to 7 feet with larger sets, in which case a high surf advisory
will be needed.

Hazardous surfing and swimming conditions are expected due to the
building surf, along with strong rip currents.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday evening
      for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM PDT
      Wednesday for zones 349-351-378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld/BL
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Velez
BEACHES...Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Fewkes/Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox