636
FXUS66 KLOX 250100
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
500 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...24/459 PM.

Unsettled weather with periods of rain is expected at times for
southwest California into the middle of the coming week. Fairly
widespread light to moderate rain is possible late Monday through
Tuesday, focused across the Central Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...24/1009 AM.

***UPDATE***

No big changes in the forecast at least for the next 24 hours or
so. Today mostly dry with increasing chances of rain overnight
tonight north of Pt Conception. Could see some heavier rain at
times Monday night into Tuesday morning especially northwest SLO
County as the next slug of rain associated with a weak AR. Models
even picking up some instability there as well with a slight
chance of thunderstorms near the coast and over the adjacent
coastal waters. However, the rain axis remains mostly north of
Ventura until Monday night and Tuesday, and even then scattered in
nature and very light.

***From Previous Discussion***

At this time, most of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties are likely
to see under an inch of rain, with much of Los Angeles County
under 0.5 inches. 1 to 3 inches are expected across Santa Barbara
and San Luis Obispo Counties, with 4+ inches for the Santa Lucia
Mountains. Rainfall rates are favored to be low-to- moderate, thus
no widespread flooding impacts are anticipated. The highest rates
are expected for the coastal upslope areas along the Central
Coast, and this is the area most likely to see minor flooding
impacts. There is some level of uncertainty in the the exact
location of higher rainfall, thus there remains a small potential
(10 percent) of rainfall totals double that of forecast for
Ventura and Los Angeles Counties.

There are no significant snow or thunderstorms concerns with this
rather warm system. However some thunderstorm activity is
possible Monday morning for the coastal waters along Central
Coast.

The storm systems and cloud coverage will keep temperatures well
below normal for the next few days. There is the chance for a few
hours of sunshine today, followed by cloudy and wet conditions
Monday and Tuesday. Gusty south to southwest winds are expected
north of Point Conception Monday afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...24/226 PM.

Confidence remains on the low end for Thanksgiving into next
weekend, as a result of uncertainty in the trajectory of a weak
storm system that may impact the region. Thanksgiving Day there
is around a 10 percent chance of showers, followed by around a 20
percent chance of showers Friday into Saturday. In addition, there
is still the potential for light offshore flow Thursday into the
weekend, which would lead to overall warming and drying trends.
Temperatures are favored to gradually warm each day, with higher
chances for sunshine than earlier in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0058Z.

At 2359Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Low confidence in nearly all TAFs, especially the coastal TAFs.

Another frontal system will bring increasing clouds to the area
tonight and Monday, with rain chances starting around midnight
north of Point Conception, and during the morning hours further
south. MVFR CIGs lowering to IFR overnight are considered likely
for the northern sites. S of Pt. Conception, a stratus or
stratocu field may develop, with high uncertainty in timing of
CIGs arrival and flight categories. The timing of the low clouds
and between flight cats may vary +/- 1-3 hours.

High confidence KPMD and KWJF will remain VFR thru Mon afternoon.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Conds are
expected to again vary widely tonight with MVFR conds developing
around 03Z then lowering to IFR/LIFR by 12Z. There is a 40% chance
that conds remain MVFR through the period, and there is high
uncertainty in the timing of flight cat changes which could be off
+/- 1-3 hours.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in the 00Z TAF. VFR conds are
expected thru the TAF period, however there is still a 20-30%
chance of MVFR cigs after 08Z tonight and into Mon morning,
especially near any showers that develop.

&&

.MARINE...24/1224 PM.

In the Outer Waters, high confidence in the current forecast.
Winds and seas will be below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels
thru this evening. For late tonight through Monday night, there
is a 60% chance of SCA level SE-S winds in the northern zones
(PZZ670/673), and a 20% chance in the southern zone (PZZ676). SCA
conds are not expected Tuesday through Friday night. A weak
frontal system will being rain and reduced visibilities to the
area late tonight through Tuesday night. A slight chance of
thunderstorms (15%-20%) can also be expected on Monday for the
northern zones.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in
the current forecast. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels
thru tonight. There is a 60% chance of SCA level SE-S winds
Monday into Monday night. Winds and seas are then expected to
remain below SCA levels Tuesday through Friday night. A weak
frontal system will being rain and reduced visibilities to the
area late tonight through Tuesday night. A slight chance of
thunderstorms (15%-20%) can also be expected on Monday.

For the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, high confidence that
winds and seas will remain below SCA levels thru Friday night. A
weak frontal system will being rain and reduced visibilities to
the area mainly for Monday night through Tuesday night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 AM Monday to 3 AM PST
      Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 4 AM Monday to 3 AM PST
      Tuesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Smith
MARINE...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox