157
FXUS66 KLOX 102350
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
450 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...10/1252 PM.

A hot weather pattern will continue across many valley, mountain,
and desert locations into Tuesday as high pressure aloft lingers
over the region. Temperatures will remain above seasonal normals
through midweek, except along the coast where persistent onshore
flow and a marine layer will keep temperatures cooler. Areas of
night through morning low clouds and fog will continue along the
coast and into some coastal valleys through the period. Cooler
temperatures are expected mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...10/144 PM.

High pressure aloft continues to result in above normal
temperatures, mainly away from the immediate coast, while a
persistent marine layer between 1000 and 1500 feet along with
moderate onshore flow is keeping the coastal areas much cooler, in
some cases as much as 30-40 degrees cooler than the valleys. Heat
advisories have been issued for the mountains through Monday, due
in large part to the warm overnight low temperatures that have
been in the 70s in addition to daytime temps as much as 10 degrees
above normal. And in the Antelope Valley foothills overnight lows
have been close to 80 with highs expected to be as high as 108 on
the valley flood so an extreme heat warning was issued there also
through Monday.

Otherwise, more of the same hot weather in the valleys Monday
with highs 4-8 degrees above normal from SLO County down through
LA County. Monday is expected to be the warmest day before high
pressure begins to weaken Tuesday and increasing onshore flow
slowly brings cooler air inland through the rest of the week. As
the high weakens the marine layer will deepen and eventually
spread into more of the coastal valleys this week.

On Monday evening high res models are indicating a moderate
Sundowner event across southwest Santa Barbara County with gusts
around 50mph around the Gaviota/Refugio areas, though forecast
gradients are only about 3.5mb.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...10/204 PM.

There is widespread agreement among the ensemble solutions on a
lengthy cooling trend that will continue through at least next
weekend, but likely lingering into the week of the 17th.
Temperatures are expected to drop below normal by Wednesday or
Thursday and remain that way through next weekend as an
unseasonably cold upper low moves into PacNW. High temps expected
to be at least 5-10 degrees below normal with plenty of night and
morning low clouds that will likely take much longer to clear than
usual for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...10/2349Z.

At 2243Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1000 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was around 4000 ft with a temperature of 29
C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs at KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF.
Smoke from nearby wildfires may cause reduced vis at times,
especially for KSBP, KSBA, and KPRB.

High confidence in cigs returning to all coastal sites, but timing
of return to KSBP, KSMX, KSBA, KCMA, and KLGB may be off +/- 2
hours. At all sites, minimum flight cat may be off by one at
times. Vsbys <1SM are possible at coastal sites north of Los
Angeles County. Dissipation of cigs may be off by +/- 2 hours, and
there is a 40% chance KOXR clears between 18Z and 23Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Minimum cig height may be off
+/- 200 ft, and clearing time may be between 16Z and 19Z. Return
of low clouds could occur as early as 01Z Monday or as late as
07Z Mon. Any east wind component should remain below 7 kts.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR 18Z TAF. There is a less than 10%
chance for LIFR to IFR vsbys/cigs between 12Z and 17Z, but
confidence in potential min flight cat is low.

&&

.MARINE...10/1215 PM.

For the outer waters, generally high confidence in the current
forecast. In the northern zone (PZZ670), there is a 30-40% chance
of SCA level wind gusts during the afternoon and evening hours
each day starting Monday. For the outer waters south of Point Sal,
there is a 50-60% chance of SCA wind gusts this afternoon through
Friday night, with brief lulls possible during the late night
through morning hours.

For the inner waters north of Point Sal, generally high
confidence in the current forecast with winds and seas expected
to remain below SCA levels through Thursday night. However, there
is a 30% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon and
evening hours on Monday and Tuesday, and again Thursday and Friday.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, generally moderate
confidence. Across the SBA Channel, there is a 40-50% chance of
SCA wind gusts at at times, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours today through Friday especially across the western
portions. Over the southern inner waters (PZZ655), there is a
20% chance of SCA wind gusts late this afternoon into this
evening around Point Dume and into the San Pedro Channel,
otherwise conds are expected to be below SCA levels through
Friday night.

In addition, night to morning dense fog may continue at times
into early this coming week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT Monday for
      zones 38-351>353-376>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW/Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox