216
FXUS66 KLOX 051144
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
444 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...05/238 AM.

Seasonal temperatures will continue through Monday. Highs will
jump upwards Tuesday, and peak on Wednesday or Thursday. Heat away
from the coast is likely to be hazardous to outdoor workers and
those without air conditioning. Above normal temperatures may last
into early next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...05/333 AM.

Weak troughing though Monday will result in temperatures a few
degrees below normal for much of the area, expect for right about
normal across the LA Basin. Little day to day weather changes are
expected each day in the short term, with the main areas of focus
for the forecast remaining next week`s heat spell.

Marine layer clouds were a little bashful to develop this
morning, particularly Ventura County northward. This may again
occur tonight into tomorrow, though this time south of Point
Conception. Along the Central Coast marine layer clouds are likely
to be more pronounced tomorrow morning.

Areas of breezy winds will continue each afternoon into night,
with onshore west to southwest gust across the interior including
the Antelope Valley, and northwest Sundowner winds across
southwestern Santa Barbara County.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...05/309 AM.

Tuesday temperatures will jump upwards, becoming several degrees
above normal for most areas south of Point Conception. Heat will
peak on Wednesday or Thursday, as a high pressure center over
Arizona expends westward into Southern California. 500 mb heights
over the region will rise to around 595-597 dam, indicative of
strong high pressure.

For the peak of the heat mid-next week, there is some uncertainty
in the magnitude of the heat as well as the extend toward the
coasts. There is a chance for light offshore flow Wednesday and
Thursday mornings, which would make heat a greater concern,
especially for coastal areas. At this point, temperatures are most
likely to be 6 to 12 degrees above normal, peaking at 100-105 for
the warmer/inland valleys, 105-108 for the deserts, 80s to low
90s for the inland coastal areas (including DTLA), and mid 70s to
low 80s at the beaches. Fairly widespread Heat Advisories are
likely to be issued, with a chance for Extreme Heat
Watches/Warnings for the warmest areas. This determination will be
made over the next couple days.

By Friday some cooling is expected, as a weak trough will
slightly knocks down the high pressure and strong onshore flow is
favored. However temperatures are still expected to remain around
4 to 8 degrees above normal.

Monsoonal moisture is still possible though trending less
favorable, with the greatest chance for thunderstorms on Wednesday
across Los Angeles County deserts and interior mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1144Z.

At 0955Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1000 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was around 4000 feet with a temperature of
21 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KWJF, and KPMD.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. For this morning, there is
a 30% chance of now low clouds at KOXR. For tonight, arrival
times of cigs may be off +/- 3 hours. There is a 30% chance of no
low clouds at KSBP and KOXR, and a 30% chance they do arrive to
KCMA.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF, as flight categories may be
one flight cat lower than fcst, and timing of changes may be off
by +/- 3 hours. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR to MVFR vsbys will
transition to VFR this morning. 30% chance for VFR conds to
prevail thereafter.

&&

.MARINE...05/131 AM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will likely continue across the
Outer Waters and the northern Inner Waters much of the time
through the remainder of the 4th of July Weekend. Local Gale
Force wind gusts are possible this evening in the northern
Outer/Inner Water. There are moderate chances for SCA level
winds across the Outer Water south of Point Conception early next
week. Winds will then increase across the entire Outer Waters to
SCA levels by Wednesday. Significant wave heights will peak
around 7 to 9 feet through Saturday.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a moderate chance
of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening through early next
week across western and southern portions of the Santa Barbara
Channel. Local gusts up to 21 kts may occur near Point Dume, and
into the San Pedro Channel during the aforementioned time.

Patchy dense fog may affect the coastal waters, especially north
of Point Conception overnight and in the morning hours through
this weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Sunday evening for
      zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 9 PM PDT
      this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Sunday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox