820
FXUS63 KLOT 151123
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
523 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures continue through mid week.

- Breezier winds expected Monday through Wednesday.

- Periodic precipitation chances expected mid week through next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

KLOT reflectivity is still showing returns along the Ford,
Iroquois and Benton County lines this morning. However, the bulk
of the precipitation is well to the south. That precip is
expected to continue its track south and east of the forecast
area. Rain chances drop off substantially in the next couple of
hours and dry conditions are expected through the day today.
There is a slight chance for patchy fog to develop around and
south of US-24 where rain occurred, but with a light wind and
plenty of cloud cover confidence is low and dense fog is not
currently forecast.

Viewing nighttime microphysics imagery, there is a wide swath
of high clouds draped over the forecast area. However, the back
edge of these clouds is along a Moline to Kenosha line. As the
system to the south that is driving the rain in central Illinois
continues to move away from the area, cloud cover will decrease
for the northern half of the forecast area through daybreak,
and skies will then become sunny areawide during the day.
Rockford is already on the edge of the back edge of the clouds
and temperatures is already down in the mid 20s. While much of
the Chicago Metro and areas south of I-80 will remain "warmer"
in the 30s under the clouds this morning, forecasted minimum
temperatures were lowered for rural areas north and west of the
Fox Valley that will experience the most radiational cooling.

An upper level ridge will grow Sunday over the Plains and slide
eastward on Monday. Temperatures are expected to increase back
into the 50s. But with a warmer air mass moving in on Monday,
there is a better chance for high temperatures to climb into the
low 60s (upper 50s along the lake shoreline). However, with
efficient deeper mixing expected in the afternoon, wind gusts
around or over 25 mph will make for breezier conditions and may
help limit how warm temperatures feel.

As an upper level trough moves eastward over southern Canada
overnight Monday into Tuesday, a dry, backdoor cold front is
expected to move southward toward northern Illinois. Breezier
winds are expected once again with this front. However, there is
a little uncertainty on how far south the cooler temperatures
associated with this front will get. The best chances for high
temperatures in the upper 50s (maybe isolated 60) should be
along and south of Interstate 80. While much of northern
Illinois is expected to still get into the low 50s, far
northeastern Illinois will likely struggle to get out of the
40s, including most of the Illinois shoreline and the city of
Chicago.

A longer wave upper level trough is expected to eject out of
the the Rockies and move over the upper Midwest Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Surface cyclogenesis is expected Tuesday
night and most model guidance has the center of low pressure
moving toward the Twin Cities and central Wisconsin. While that
keeps the better forcing to the north, it remains close enough
to allow for chances of rain for much of the area and even
enough MUCAPE to merit the slight (less than 20 percent) chance
of thunder with this system. Lastly, winds will once again be
breezy with gusts 25 to 30 mph. While the better chances for
rain are north of Interstate 80, as this system pulls away to
the north and east, a drier air mass is expected to move in
behind it, particularly for the rural, western portions of the
forecast area. As gusts are expected to remain through Wednesday
morning, there is a chance for increased fire weather concerns
in areas that do not receive much rain as minimum relative
humidity values drop during the day below 40 percent. Lower
confidence on the high temperature forecasted for Wednesday, as
it will depend on timing of the system exiting the area.
Ensembles are still suggesting temperatures could climb back
into the 60s. However, a cooler air mass moving in on Thursday
behind this system is expected to return the area to more
seasonable conditions.

Models are suggesting another system to arrive at the end of
the week. But even compared to 24 hours ago, models are already
suggesting a different amplitude and location of the next
system. While confidence is lower with the details for what will
arrive at the end of the week, with temperatures expected to
gradually drop, the expectation is that it could start as rain
before a return to a wintry mix leading into the weekend. Still
a lot to be ironed out over the coming days.

DK

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

There are no significant aviation weather concerns anticipated
through the period.

Winds will remain light (10 kt or less) from the west-northwest
again today. A weak lake breeze may attempt to approach GYY, ORD
and MDW towards sunset. However, the winds may end up just going
light and variable for a period with it early this evening
before directions settle into a south-southwesterly direction
later in the evening. Southwest winds are then expected to ramp
up later Monday morning as the surface gradient strengthens.
Currently, we anticipate gusts of 20-25 kt to develop by midday
Monday and continue into the afternoon.

Primarily VFR conditions are expected through the period, with
only some mid and high level cloud cover at times. We also
cannot rule out some brief periods of lower VSBY`s in light fog
early this morning, and possibly again late tonight. However, this
is expected to remain spotty and outside the main Chicago
terminals.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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