136
FXUS63 KLOT 140820
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
220 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm weather expected through Saturday.

- Blustery Saturday afternoon and night behind a cold front,
  then dry and much colder for Sunday.

- Precipitation chances, including the potential for some snow,
  return Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

An expansive ridge centered across the central CONUS will bring
a unseasonably warm conditions to the region though Saturday.
Increasing low-level southwest flow today and especially tonight
will advect an already mild and seasonably moist airmass from
the southern Great Plains to the area. With the expectations for
mostly sunny skies today, thermal profiles via 500 hPa heights
and 850 hPa temps within their respective 90 percentile range
today will support max temps this afternoon ranging from the low
70s southwest to the mid and upper 60s northeast. The daily
record maximum temp of 78F (73F) for Chicago (Rockford) is
(should be) out of reach for today.

40+ knot southwest flow as low as 1-2kft tonight along with
expanding stratus over the area will promote rather mild temps
tonight with lows in the mid 50s. Thermal profiles suggest that
the stratus will be insufficiently deep to generate precip, but
cannot fully rule out a few drizzle drops late tonight given
modest low-level WAA and isentropic ascent in and above the
cloud layer.

A surface low tracking along the Canadian border will bring a
cold front across the area Saturday morning into early
afternoon. Again, the depth of moisture does not support notable
precip, but a few patches of drizzle or sprinkles are possible
with the front. Temps have the potential to match those expected
today, but the onset of post-frontal CAA and morning cloud
cover may limit warming to some extent. Otherwise, expect
northwest gusts over 30 mph at times behind the front Saturday
afternoon and night.

After a colder and blustery day on Sunday, a disorganized
upper- level low over the southwest CONUS is progged to
degenerate into a pair of highly sheared disturbances crossing
the mid-Mississippi River Valley Monday night through Tuesday.
Given the evolution of the upstream low, there remains lower
confidence than desired with respect to prospects for precip
during this time. Low-level thermal profiles will be supportive
of at least a mix of snow for northern portions of the CWA
Monday night into Tuesday as dry easterly flow yields wet-bulb
temps below freezing under a lowering cloud deck. Will need to
follow trends as to whether accumulating snow chances increase
for northern Illinois.

Quiet conditions should briefly return with a passing ridge on
Wednesday ahead of a signal for a more organized mid-latitude
cyclone in the region late next week.

Kluber

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Aviation forecast concerns for the 06Z TAFs:

- LLWS conditions likely Friday night due to 45 kt low level
  jet.

- Potential for MVFR stratus development Friday night.

Surface high pressure ridge continues to move off to the east of
the region late this evening, with winds having turned light
south across the terminals. Winds will become southwest and
increase a bit to near 10 kts Friday morning. The gradient will
strengthen a little bit later in the day in response to low
pressure well northwest of the region, though shallow mixing
looks to keep winds in check. Deepening of the low to our north
Friday night will result in development of a 45 kt southwest low
level jet, while surface winds gradually increase into the
10-15 kt range. This will support modest LLWS conditions during
the late evening/overnight hours. Can`t rule out some surface
gusts during the night at ORD/MDW, especially after midnight.

Cloud-wise, the broken VFR mid-deck is exiting the region to the
east, with just some patchy high cirrus expected across the
terminals overnight into Friday. VFR stratus development does
appear possible across central IL/IN overnight, though is
expected to remain south of the terminals. A surge of low-level
moisture arrives Friday evening however, with the increasing low
level winds. This looks to have a better potential for producing
MVFR stratus later Friday night.

Ratzer

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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