060
FXUS63 KLOT 092348
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
648 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely isolated showers or sprinkles possible Friday into
  Friday evening.

- Seasonable temperatures expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

A compact wave crossing central Manitoba this evening will
track southeastward across the Great Lakes region through Friday
evening, with an associated cold front crossing the forecast
area late afternoon through the evening. Satellite imagery today
combined with guidance indicates an expansive area of dry air
across the central CONUS. However, a ribbon of mid-level
moisture extending from Minnesota to eastern Kansas should
provide sufficient moisture for isolated to scattered showers
with a mid-level front/weak trough nearing the area from the
west late tonight. Overall shower/sprinkle coverage will then
diminish in coverage and become quite sparse as the front/trough
washes out over the area through the day on Friday. The main
front will then bring another period of sprinkles or narrow
bands of very light rain Friday evening. Finally, isolated light
lake effect rain showers cannot be ruled out showers cannot be
ruled out across northwest Indiana late Friday night into
Saturday, but low inversion heights will greatly limit
convective cloud depths.

The overall pattern across the central CONUS will remain
relatively quiet next week with a persistent low-amplitude ridge
anchored across the central Great Plains and Lower Mississippi
River Valley and a deep upper-level low stalled across northern
Canada. A series of impulses emanating from the upper-level low
will pass the area well to the northeast, bringing several
weakening cold fronts toward the forecast area through the week.
While there will be some shower chances during this time, a
vast majority of the area will remain dry. Temps will favor
slightly above normal for mid-October.

Kluber

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Only minor aviation concerns for the 00Z TAFs are with the
potential for breezy southwest winds and spotty light
showers/sprinkles Friday, along with a wind shift to the north
behind a cold front Friday night.

Surface high pressure was centered east of the area early this
evening, and will continue to move away from the forecast area.
In response, modest east-southeast winds will gradually shift
south overnight. Dry atmospheric profiles will continue to
support mainly clear skies overnight, though some high clouds
will increase toward morning.

Farther to our northwest, a mid-level trough was tracking across
the Northern Plains/Canadian prairies, and will dig southeast
across the upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes into Friday.
Southwest winds will become breezy after sunrise with gusts
around 20 kts, and a VFR mid-level deck will develop. Scattered
showers and a few TSRA are expected to develop upstream
overnight across parts of MN/WI/IA, though with our current dry
air mass and a gradual decrease in forcing for ascent expected
here Friday, model guidance weakens and decreases coverage of
SHRA during the day especially with east/southeast extent
especially into the Chicago metro terminals. Based on this,
have maintained previous forecasts including a PROB30 for SHRA
at RFD, while keeping Chicago terminals dry. Would expect that
some spotty showers or sprinkles make it into the metro, but at
this time the 15-20% probability doesn`t support their inclusion
in TAFs. SHRA chances generally decrease by mid-late afternoon,
with winds gradually easing and shifting more west- southwest.

A weak cold front associated with this system is expected to
move into the area later Friday evening, and have indicated a
north-northwest wind shift in ORD/MDW 30 hour forecasts.

Ratzer

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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