003
FXUS63 KLOT 092119
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
319 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Period of showers and drizzle tonight into Sunday morning.

- Breezy winds areawide Sunday afternoon along with a chance
  for scattered showers for areas north of I-88.

- Another storm system looks to bring another chance for
  rain towards the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Through Sunday Night:

Through Sunday night:

A vertically stacked low pressure system continues to lift into
the Upper Midwest this afternoon with an occluding frontal
boundary stretching from southern MN southward across the
Mississippi River Valley. Along this frontal boundary an area of
broken showers continues to gradually move across central IL
towards our area. While there has been a couple of radar echoes
developing ahead of the main shower axis, these echoes have
struggled to produce much more than sprinkles due to the large
quantity of low-level dry air. However, the aforementioned
showers are expected to move into northern IL and northwest IN
this evening and persist through the overnight hours as the
front traverses the area. The progressive nature of the front
should allow showers to exit the area prior to daybreak Sunday
morning, however; patchy drizzle is forecast to develop behind
the showers as lingering low-level moisture interacts with the
broad forcing beneath the systems dry slot. Therefore, expect
dreary weather, including reduced visibilities, to linger into
Sunday morning before conditions improve towards midday. Despite
the drizzle, rainfall totals are still expected to remain
generally below a tenth of an inch, but pockets of quarter inch
amounts may materialize especially southeast of I-57.

As conditions improve on Sunday, winds will increase through
the afternoon resulting in 25-30 mph gusts for the afternoon
hours. Otherwise, expect gradually clearing skies through the
day on Sunday with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s giving
way to lows in the 40s Sunday night. However, there is still the
chance (20-40%) for scattered showers to develop Sunday
afternoon mainly for areas north of I-88 as the low passes to
our north. Regardless, expect dry conditions to return Sunday
evening.


Monday through Saturday:

The main forecast concern for the upcoming week will be another
storm system that looks to bring additional chances for rain
towards midweek. Until then, expect high pressure to remain the
dominant weather feature overhead resulting in dry and
seasonably mild conditions. Though, a cold front is expected to
move through the area on Monday which does look to generate
another period of breezy northwest winds gusting 20-25 mph
Monday afternoon. Furthermore, highs on Tuesday will also be a
bit cooler than Monday with readings in the lower 50s.

While our area benefits from a surface high overhead, another
deepening trough is expected to move into the western CONUS on
Tuesday. This trough is then expected to drift across the
central Plains and eventually into the Great Lakes late
Wednesday into the day on Thursday. Guidance remains in decent
agreement that the surface low is expected to traverse across
northern MN and southern Canada which means our area will have
to deal with the trailing cold front and its associated showers.
Despite the good agreement on evolution, there is still some
uncertainty in timing and coverage of showers along the front.
So while the current forecast has maintained the 40-50% POPs
offered by the NBM, subtle changes may occur as we get closer.
Nevertheless, another period of tranquil weather looks to
materialize behind the midweek storm system resulting in more
mild temperatures to close out the upcoming work week.

Yack

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

The main aviation weather concerns through the 18Z TAF period
include:

* Rain showers expected late this evening into the night with
  pockets of drizzle going into Sunday

* MVFR to IFR cigs late tonight into early Sunday

SE winds near or just over 10 kt can be expected this afternoon
and stretching through the evening. A system of showers will
move in from the south this evening and fall on the terminals
late into the night. The more widespread rain coverage looks to
hang out over Chicagoland between roughly 04 and 08Z with
pockets of lighter rain and eventually drizzle likely to follow
into Sunday morning. MVFR cigs are likely to take hold during
the brunt of the rainfall overnight with IFR cigs expected
beginning in the predawn hours and extending past daybreak. VFR
conditions look to return by late morning. Additional isolated
pockets of non-impactful showers will be possible Sunday
afternoon.

Meanwhile, SE winds will veer to near-southerly tonight and onto
SW by Sunday morning. We can expect gusts into the 20 to 25 kt
range during the better part of the day on Sunday.

Doom

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Sunday for the IL
     nearshore waters.

&&

$$

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