996
FXUS63 KLOT 100533
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1233 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely isolated showers or sprinkles possible Friday into
  Friday evening.

- Seasonable temperatures expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

A compact wave crossing central Manitoba this evening will
track southeastward across the Great Lakes region through Friday
evening, with an associated cold front crossing the forecast
area late afternoon through the evening. Satellite imagery today
combined with guidance indicates an expansive area of dry air
across the central CONUS. However, a ribbon of mid-level
moisture extending from Minnesota to eastern Kansas should
provide sufficient moisture for isolated to scattered showers
with a mid-level front/weak trough nearing the area from the
west late tonight. Overall shower/sprinkle coverage will then
diminish in coverage and become quite sparse as the front/trough
washes out over the area through the day on Friday. The main
front will then bring another period of sprinkles or narrow
bands of very light rain Friday evening. Finally, isolated light
lake effect rain showers cannot be ruled out showers cannot be
ruled out across northwest Indiana late Friday night into
Saturday, but low inversion heights will greatly limit
convective cloud depths.

The overall pattern across the central CONUS will remain
relatively quiet next week with a persistent low-amplitude ridge
anchored across the central Great Plains and Lower Mississippi
River Valley and a deep upper-level low stalled across northern
Canada. A series of impulses emanating from the upper-level low
will pass the area well to the northeast, bringing several
weakening cold fronts toward the forecast area through the week.
While there will be some shower chances during this time, a
vast majority of the area will remain dry. Temps will favor
slightly above normal for mid-October.

Kluber

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Key messages:

- Breezy southwest winds today (Gusts up around 20 kt).

- A few isolated to widely scattered showers possible late
  (early) morning through mid afternoon (midday) at Chicago area
  (Rockford) terminals.

- Northerly wind shift with a cold front this evening (likely
  after 02Z).

While no significant weather concerns are anticipated through
the period, there will be a period of breezy southwest winds
through the daylight hours today. Increasingly low-level
moisture on these southwest winds may also help foster a few
isolated to widely scattered showers today (20-30% chance for
these) as a weather disturbance shifts into the western Great
Lakes. A very low (<10%), but non-zero, chance for an isolated
thunderstorm also exists with this activity today. While the
chance of any thunder today is far too low to include in the
TAF, we do continue to advertise the chance of showers with the
going PROB30 group, which largely remains unchanged in timing
from previous forecasts (from 12 to 18Z at RFD and 16 to 21Z at
the Chicago area terminals).

A northerly wind shift is then expected with a cold frontal
passage this evening.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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