868
FNUS73 KLMK 121202
FWSLMK

Spot Forecast for Blue Licks Rx burn...OKNP
National Weather Service Louisville KY
802 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on March 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Another mild, dry, and occasionally gusty day is in store.
Temperatures are expected to surge to near or at record temps today in
the upper 70s to near 80. Deep mixing will once again allow for a dry
air mix down event with minimum relative humidity values dropping into
the 20 to 30 percent range. Some teens are certainly possible if full
mixing is achieved. One slightly limiting factor today will be some upper
sky cover mid morning through the afternoon, however shouldn`t be enough
to offset similar conditions to what we`ve seen the past couple of days.
Winds will occasionally gust to 20 to 25 mph. Overall, dispersion should
be in the excellent category by afternoon given the deep mixing and
good transport winds.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent).
Temperature.........50 at ignition...Max 76.
RH..................59 percent at ignition...Min 28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 5 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Southwest winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph
                    late in the morning.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /10100 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /90800 knot-ft/.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................15 early in the morning increasing to 71 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........3      8      34     54     54
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............50     58     67     75     76
RH..............59     51     40     29     28
20 ft wind......S 5    SW 8   SW 9   SW 9   SW 9
20 ft wind gust.7      14     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....800    1700   2800   4200   4800
Transport wind..SW 14  SW 20  SW 21  SW 22  SW 21
LVORI...........2      1      1      1      1
ADI.............15     42     64     62     62
SDspl kt-ft/100010     29     51     80     86

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Temperature.........Min 45.
RH..................Max 90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (57600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................65 early in the evening decreasing to 5 late in
                    the night.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........39  29  32  25  18  15  34  41  45  46  49  59
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............74  71  67  65  62  60  58  56  55  53  52  48
RH..............30  34  39  43  48  51  53  57  59  64  69  75
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   6   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.13  8   6   4   4   5   5   5   4   4   4   4
Mix hgt (kft)...3.6 2.0 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.18  14  12  10  12  12  12  10  10  10  12  12
LVORI...........1   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............65  9   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100058  24  6   2   3   6   6   5   5   5   6   6

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers late in the morning. Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the afternoon, then
                    chance of rain showers late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 72.
RH..................Min 52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to marginal (29600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................5 to 41.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........51  59  62  44  31  60  40  44  51  47  43  39
Weather cov.....            CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............48  47  46  49  54  59  63  66  69  71  72  72
RH..............74  77  90  84  78  69  63  58  57  55  53  52
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SE  S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   2   2
20 FT wind gust.4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.9 3.4 3.7 3.6
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.12  10  10  10  9   9   9   8   8   8   9   9
LVORI...........3   3   3   4   3   3   2   2   2   1   1   1
ADI.............5   11  8   8   7   13  20  24  29  33  41  40
SDspl kt-ft/10005   4   5   5   7   9   14  16  20  24  30  29

$$
Forecaster...WFO LMK
Requested by...Sandra Elliott
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2505373.2/LMK
.DELDT 03/12/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL sandra.elliott@ky.gov