Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
399
FGUS73 KLMK 132155
ESFLMK
FGUS73 KLMK 151930 ESFLMK INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-
KYC001-003-005-009-017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-061-067-073-
079-085-087-091-093-097-099-103-111-113-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-
169-171-179-181-183-185-207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-239-
140000-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Louisville KY
445 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...
This outlook covers south central Indiana, central Kentucky, and the
Ohio River from Madison, Indiana to Tell City, Indiana.
The flood risk in the middle of the Ohio Valley is above normal.
Minor to moderate flooding is expected due to rainfall and
thunderstorms with isolated major flooding possible especially along
and south of the Ohio River.
This outlook is valid through May 2025.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 02/18/2025 - 05/19/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Barren River
Bowling Green 28.0 32.0 45.0 : 17 22 7 13 <5 <5
:Blue River
Fredericksburg 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 44 32 17 16 <5 <5
:Cumberland River
Burkesville 46.0 55.0 64.0 : 43 25 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton 24.0 35.0 42.0 : 44 41 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 52 48 37 34 24 21
:Green River
Munfordville 28.0 50.0 57.0 : 39 33 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mammoth Cave 32.0 57.0 62.0 : 66 46 <5 <5 <5 <5
Rochester 37.0 45.0 50.0 : >95 <5 16 <5 <5 <5
Woodbury 26.0 38.0 41.0 : >95 76 24 18 9 9
:Kentucky River
Camp Nelson Lock 30.0 36.0 40.0 : 50 36 19 21 10 16
Frankfort Lock 31.0 35.0 40.0 : 28 14 16 7 6 <5
Ford Lock 26.0 35.0 40.0 : 47 22 9 <5 <5 <5
High Bridge Lock 30.0 36.0 39.0 : 36 20 16 8 9 <5
Lockport Lock 33.0 43.0 49.0 : 62 41 23 13 <5 5
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring 25.0 42.0 45.0 : 70 44 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy 25.0 28.0 32.0 : 41 21 18 7 <5 <5
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek 451.0 457.0 470.0 : 32 15 <5 <5 <5 <5
Cannelton Lock an 42.0 46.0 50.0 : 66 38 19 10 <5 <5
McAlpine Lower 55.0 65.0 73.0 : 53 30 <5 6 <5 <5
McAlpine Upper 23.0 30.0 38.0 : 60 35 19 9 <5 <5
Tell City 38.0 44.0 50.0 : 92 63 31 15 <5 <5
:Rolling Fork River
Boston 35.0 42.0 45.0 : 62 55 29 22 18 13
:Rough River
Dundee 25.0 28.0 30.0 : 56 44 32 26 <5 10
:Salt River
Shepherdsville 32.0 35.0 40.0 : 23 13 13 9 <5 <5
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana 20.0 22.0 23.0 : 25 23 18 15 15 11
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/18/2025 - 05/19/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Barren River
Bowling Green 14.4 15.6 19.1 23.3 26.5 29.3 34.5
:Blue River
Fredericksburg 8.9 9.5 11.0 19.1 22.9 25.0 26.1
:Cumberland River
Burkesville 40.2 41.1 44.3 45.3 47.7 53.3 54.7
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton 12.7 14.0 15.7 23.0 27.0 29.1 30.8
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill 7.1 7.5 8.1 10.1 13.8 16.3 17.6
:Green River
Munfordville 15.4 15.9 19.3 25.2 31.5 37.8 46.5
Mammoth Cave 25.7 27.2 29.8 35.8 40.3 46.3 51.2
Rochester 37.0 37.7 39.0 41.4 43.8 45.9 47.0
Woodbury 27.0 28.3 30.4 33.4 37.8 40.6 42.7
:Kentucky River
Camp Nelson Lock 24.3 25.9 27.6 30.0 33.2 40.1 42.7
Frankfort Lock 17.1 18.5 22.4 26.4 31.7 37.1 40.9
Ford Lock 20.0 21.5 22.8 25.5 29.8 34.2 38.0
High Bridge Lock 20.1 21.5 23.8 26.4 32.7 38.5 42.2
Lockport Lock 24.8 25.9 30.1 35.6 42.3 46.5 48.7
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring 20.3 20.9 24.2 28.3 32.1 36.4 40.9
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy 14.3 18.6 20.7 24.0 26.9 29.3 29.8
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek 438.7 442.2 444.6 448.7 451.9 454.7 456.0
Cannelton Lock an 37.6 39.7 41.4 43.1 45.2 47.2 48.4
McAlpine Lower 45.2 48.8 51.1 55.5 59.8 63.6 64.7
McAlpine Upper 17.4 19.1 20.8 24.5 28.7 32.1 33.3
Tell City 36.4 38.9 40.8 42.6 44.4 45.9 46.8
:Rolling Fork River
Boston 27.2 28.4 32.8 37.1 43.0 47.1 48.7
:Rough River
Dundee 19.1 20.0 22.2 25.8 28.8 29.4 29.9
:Salt River
Shepherdsville 8.3 8.9 12.2 17.6 31.4 36.0 38.7
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana 9.9 10.5 12.0 15.2 20.0 24.3 25.5
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/18/2025 - 05/19/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Barren River
Bowling Green 8.6 8.2 7.3 4.6 3.9 3.8 3.8
:Blue River
Fredericksburg 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.7
:Cumberland River
Burkesville 33.7 32.7 31.3 29.3 27.8 25.1 23.6
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2
:Green River
Munfordville 6.1 5.7 4.8 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.3
Mammoth Cave 14.3 13.9 12.3 11.3 10.6 10.2 9.8
Rochester 32.3 31.8 30.3 29.1 28.1 27.5 27.2
Woodbury 12.1 10.5 7.5 4.9 3.3 2.8 2.7
:Kentucky River
Camp Nelson Lock 13.7 13.5 13.2 12.6 12.2 11.9 11.7
Frankfort Lock 8.6 8.2 7.9 7.5 7.2 7.1 7.0
Ford Lock 11.8 11.6 11.3 10.7 10.4 10.1 10.0
High Bridge Lock 11.7 11.2 10.6 10.1 9.6 9.3 9.1
Lockport Lock 10.8 10.3 9.9 9.4 9.0 8.8 8.6
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring 12.4 11.9 10.6 8.7 6.8 5.9 5.8
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek 424.4 423.4 422.4 421.9 421.5 421.3 421.2
Cannelton Lock an 18.1 17.4 15.0 13.7 12.5 12.0 11.7
McAlpine Lower 21.9 19.4 16.8 14.8 13.1 12.4 12.0
McAlpine Upper 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5
Tell City 18.3 17.6 15.8 14.8 13.8 13.4 13.1
:Rolling Fork River
Boston 6.3 5.8 4.8 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.4
:Rough River
Dundee 5.7 5.1 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7
:Salt River
Shepherdsville 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Water Prediction
Service.
Since mid November, precipitation has been at or above normal and
temperatures have been at or below normal across the region. As of
early February, soil moisture was at or above normal and streamflows
were above normal to much above normal over southern Indiana and
central Kentucky. Reservoir levels were near or above normal. A
shallow snowpack of less than two inches was present over north
central Kentucky and southern Indiana along the Ohio River.
Over the next week, the weather pattern will feature a significant
rainfall this weekend with 2-5 inches of precipitation expected.
Another weak weather system could bring light wintry precipitation to
the region Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Total precipitation
for the next seven days looks to be between 2-6 inches.
Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is expected this weekend
and through next week as a result of weekend rains. Isolated major
river flooding is possible.
The 8-14 day outlook which goes out through February 26 calls for
below normal precipitation and well below normal temperatures. At
this
time of year, normal temperatures are in the upper 30s and normal
precipitation is around a tenth to a half inch.
The 3-4 week outlook for February 22 to March 7 calls for above
normal precipitation and near normal to slightly below normal
temperatures. Normal temperatures for the beginning of March
are in the lower 40s with normal precipitation between a quarter to
one inch.
The seasonal outlook through April indicates good chances for above
normal precipitation and normal to slightly above normal
temperatures.
Additional supportive data and explanations are available for
precipitation and temperature outlooks as well as soil moisture at
www.cpc.noaa.gov.
Current snowpack data are available at www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa.
Current streamflow data are available at water.usgs.gov/waterwatch.
Current reservoir levels for this area are available at www.lrl-
wc.usace.army.mil/reports/lkreport.html.
Visit our web site weather.gov/lmk for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued February 27.
$$
AMS