469
FXUS63 KLMK 291839
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
239 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for afternoon/evening showers and storms today and Monday.

* Less humid conditions arrive Wednesday and Thursday.

* Isolated showers and storms are possible for Independence Day, but
  most of the day will be dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

This afternoon...Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s so far
and getting closer to convective temperatures. A very moist and
unstable environment will allow for scattered showers and storms to
develop this afternoon. These diurnal storms will begin to dissipate
this evening as the sun sets.

Tonight... Most of tonight will remain dry with broken skies. Light
southerly winds and recent precip may lead to some light, patchy fog
development especially in protected valley areas.

Monday and Monday Night... A trough will push through the Ohio
Valley bringing a cold front towards the region. This trough will
increase shear (although still weak) and bring some better forcing
to a present tropical airmass. Some CAMs want to bring a cluster of
showers and storms through in the early morning. These storms will
likely dissipate as they move east over the region. Mid morning
through early afternoon will remain dry with scattered skies. High
temperatures are expected to be in the mid-upper 80s. Scattered
showers and storms will then develop in the afternoon and evening as
the cold front approaches the region. These storms will have access
to 2000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, and slightly better lapse rates
compared to the previous few days. These conditions will allow for
storms (a few strong storms) to develop in the afternoon ahead of
the cold front. Storms will last through the evening and into the
first part of Monday night. Main threat is pulse cells, wet
microbursts, gusty to damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain.
Storms will outrun the better forcing along the front and
instability will wane with sunset, allowing storms to steadily
weaken overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Tuesday - Thursday...

The cold front will push through the region on Tuesday bringing
lower dew points and more comfortable conditions to the region mid
week. Along the cold front scattered showers will be possible.
Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry during this time.
High temperatures will remain near normal in the mid to upper 80s.

Independence Day - Next Weekend...

An upper trough will swing over the northern Ohio Valley late week
bringing an isolated to scattered chance of showers and storms over
the northern half of the region on Friday. Brief ridging and high
pressure will move over the region on Saturday into Sunday, keeping
conditions dry and warm with temperatures in the low 90s. By late
Sunday and into early next week, ridging pushes east of the region
and precip chances increase.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Isolated showers are beginning to develop over the western portion
of the region. These showers will continue to increase in coverage
to widely scattered showers and storms. A storm would be capable of
gusty winds and heavy rain. Diurnal convection will begin to
dissipate with sunset. The first half of the overnight will remain
dry with light southerly winds. The latter half of the night will
feature a cluster of showers and storms moving in and dissipating as
it continues east across the region. This cluster of showers would
help to lower CIGs in the morning. After sunrise, CIGs will begin to
lift and winds will pick up out of the southwest. Another round of
showers and storms (some strong) is expected to develop in the
afternoon on Monday and last through the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW