403
FXUS63 KLMK 281738
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
138 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...Updated Aviation Disucssion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for mainly afternoon/evening showers and storms each day
  through at least Monday

* Less humid conditions arrive next Wednesday and Thursday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Temperatures are warming across the region this morning under
southerly flow and mostly clear skies. Convection has developed and
is moving into western Kentucky. These storms will drift into the
far western portion of the CWA around noon ET. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track with scattered showers and storms
developing in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Muggy tropical air mass remains in place with a weak cold front
draped across northern Illinois and Indiana. The front will struggle
to make southward progress today as it is oriented nearly parallel
to the weak upper flow. Look for scattered storms to develop by mid-
afternoon and continue until sunset or just after. Lack of shear
does not support storm organization, but a few pulse storms could
put out localized damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rain could lead
to flooding if any locations see repeated heavy rainfall.

Max temps this afternoon will be close to seasonal normals, but the
humid air mass will keep overnight temps from dropping below 70 in
all but the most sheltered valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Moist and at least weakly unstable air mass remains in place at
least into Tuesday morning. Diurnal convection is in play both
Sunday and Monday, with localized heavy rainfall possible in pulse
storms. Any location that sees repeated heavy rainfall would be
subject to flooding. By Monday we could also see a low-end SVR
threat, mainly north of I-64, as CAPE cranks up near 1500 J/kg and a
band of stronger westerlies runs from Illinois across Indiana into
Ohio. Still a low-confidence forecast determined by the southward
extent of the shear, but still can`t rule out a strong storm or two
in southern Indiana or even north central Kentucky. Gusty winds and
torrential rainfall are still the main threats.

Fropa on Tuesday will open the door for a less humid air mass
Wednesday and Thursday. Temps will still run near normal by day and
above normal by night, but dewpoints will run in the lower/mid
60s...not nearly as oppressive as the past week, but you`ll still
know it`s summer. Wed-Thu will be mainly dry days, with isolated
storms back in play for Independence Day. Not a washout by any
stretch, as hit-and-miss storms will be more miss than hit.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Scattered showers and storms have developed over the region and will
impact the terminals through the afternoon. As the sun sets this
evening, showers and storms will dissipate. Most of the night will
feature calm to light winds and increasing mid-level skies. In the
early morning, there is a signal for some patchy dense fog,
especially in areas with recent rainfall. Fog will burn off with
sunrise and as winds pick up out of the southwest. Another round of
scattered showers and storms is expected Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...SRW