530
FXUS63 KLMK 021509
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1109 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Below normal temperatures and comfortable humidity levels
  through the weekend with temperatures more typical of early fall.

* Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms return
  Sunday, continuing into early-to-mid next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1109 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

After a cool start in the upper 50s and lower 60s this morning,
temperatures have warmed into the low-to-mid 70s as of 15Z across
central KY and southern IN. Mostly sunny skies are present across
most of the area, though some stratus continues to hang on across
the Lake Cumberland area as well as portions of the Bluegrass
region. Continued NE flow from high pressure north of the region
will keep temperatures below normal and will keep dewpoints
comfortable in the upper 50s and low 60s into this afternoon. High
temperatures should make it into the low-to-mid 80s.

The forecast is on track at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Overall it`s largely a persistence forecast as a 1030mb sfc high
centered near Eau Claire continues to slowly build across the Great
Lakes. On the periphery of the high we have mild and dry NE winds in
the Ohio Valley, maintaining fresh and cool (by the standards of
this summer thus far) conditions. Some fog has been noted in parts
of eastern Kentucky, where clouds kept temps more suppressed on
Friday. Less risk of fog over central Kentucky as there was enough
clearing to start the night with larger T/Td spreads.

Low-level thickness progs suggest max temps this afternoon maybe 1
degree warmer than Friday for areas that got sunshine, including SDF
and LEX. With the benefit of less cloud cover today, south-central
Kentucky should also be able to warm into the lower 80s.

Low-level moisture begins to slowly recover late tonight as an
inverted sfc trof develops over the Cumberland Plateau. Will start
to see increased cloud cover and slightly warmer min temps, not to
mention isolated to scattered showers over east-central Kentucky
after midnight.

The inverted trof starts to migrate westward during the day on
Sunday, allowing cloud cover to expand. Could see widespread showers
and a few storms east of Interstate 65 in Kentucky, while much of
southern Indiana remains high and dry. Cloud cover will limit
diurnal temp ranges, keeping max temps well below normal, just
either side of 80. Depending on the sharpness of the edge of clouds
and precip, there could be a larger spread from SE to NW (with the
warmer temps west of I-65).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

For the first half of next week, the synoptic pattern will be
relatively static as a blocking upper high sets up over central
Canada. Upper ridging over the southwest US will gradually build and
spread to the east by the second half of the week, which will start
to kick out a weak upper trough which sets up early in the week over
the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley. With the upper trough and
weak inverted sfc trough still over the region, there should be
enough support for daily afternoon and evening shower and storm
chances. Temperatures will very gradually warm, approaching
climatological normals in the upper 80s by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 706 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Light NE winds and VFR conditions this morning as we remain on the
periphery of a 1030mb sfc high building into the Great Lakes. Decent
gradient in place so once mixing deepens, we`ll see gusts near 20 kt
for much of the afternoon.

Winds decouple after sunset, and the pressure pattern gets a little
more sloppy with an inverted trof developing over the Cumberland
Plateau. As that feature makes its way westward late tonight into
Sunday morning, it could touch off a few showers and storms, but
confidence is too low to include in the TAFs. Main sensible wx
impact will be mid-level cigs at LEX, BWG and RGA, while SDF and HNB
retain just cirrus cover.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...RAS